Shot in the Dark

Tag: MNGov 2010

  • Their Masters’ Voices

    The new MPR/Humphrey Poll shows Dayton at 38, Emmer at 27 and Horner at 16. Fishy?  Oh, yeah; Brauer writes at MinnPost: One of the wacky things about the 750-voter, landline-only, five-day survey is how much partisan ID shifted in just a month. August’s poll was 46 percent GOP, 41 percent Democrat — the only…

  • Chanting Points Memo: All Moo, No Cow

    It’s been two months now that the Twin Cities and national left has been flexing its proverbial muscles over Target’s donation to MNForward. It got to the point over the summer where the Twin Cities left and media (pardon the redundancy) thought they’d made a huuuuuge dent on Target’s market capitalization. Indeed even today you…

  • The DFL Morale-Builder, 2010 Edition

    With the news that Tom Emmer has pulled to a tiny, inside-the-margin-of-error lead in the latest Rasmussen poll, I’ve joked that it’s about time for a Star/Tribune “Minnesota Poll” showing Mark Dayton leading by an improbably huge margin. And sure enough, here it is.  It shows Dayton leading Emmer 39-30, with Horner eating up 18…

  • Just Around The Corner From The Light Of Day

    The latest Rasmussen Poll shows the race still a dead heat, but with Emmer ahead: The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Minnesota Voters shows Emmer earning 42% support to Dayton’s 41% when leaners are included. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner is a distant third with nine percent (9%) of the vote. Six percent…

  • Fact Checking

    I’m not one to jump to rash conclusions.  I’d hate to have my self-appointed betters call me a “lazy-ass activist”, after all – that is one of those things where the mere accusation makes it so, at least if the subject is a conservative in Minnesota, apparently. So I sent the following email to the…

  • All In The Timing

    So yesterday former Emmer campaign manager Mark Buesgens was arrested on suspicion of drunk driving. Well, that’s news, sorta.  Granted, Buesgens left the campaign over a week ago, but facts are facts. Of course, the media flogged the “story” that Tom Emmer had had two alcohol-related careless driving convictions, in 1981 and 1991 – nearly…

  • Mulligan

    Reacting t0 the news that the Minnesota Department of Revenue found that Mark Dayton’s original budget “plan” came in about $3 billion light in its attempt to close the budget shortfall by “taxing the rich” (Minnesotans with adjusted gross incomes greater than $150K for a family or $130K for an individual), the Dayton campaign is…

  • Taking Back “Miracle”

    “Charles Manson stole this song from the Beatles.  We’re here to steal it back” — Bono, introducing “Helter Skelter” at the beginning of Rattle and Hum. ———- There aren’t many things in the world worse than someone – especially someone putatively in charge of you – claiming credit for your work. All of Minnesota should…

  • When KSFY Reared Its Ugly Head, He Bravely Turned His Tail And Fled

    Mark Dayton flees the cameras of a Sioux Falls station after the last debate: No plan.  No answers to questions. Why is he running for office, again?

  • And, Lest The Media Miss It…

    …the real story was this:  Mark Dayton dropped eight points in the SurveyUSA/KSTP poll.  Emmer was up four.  They’re in a statistical tie. Leftybloggers point out that the crosstabs changed; this SUSA/KSTP poll had equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats, while the previous one polled more Democrats. Not enough more to completely explain an eight…

  • Check It Out For Yourself

    Compare the budgets

  • So Let Me Get This Straight

    So according to the media, when then-Saint Paul mayor Randy Kelly – a moderate DFLer – endorsed George W. Bush for President in 2004, DFLers were right – says the media and the DFL – to repudiate him and chase him from public life… …but today, when Arne Carlson – who endorsed Barack Obama and…

  • So You Wanted Specifics?

    As this is rolling out, Tom Emmer is releasing the long-awaited Part 3 of the plan for his Administration – the re-engineering of how Minnesota government works. It’s called “Living Within Our Means”, and it’s a tall order. Here are the basics: Minnesota Government Needs Fundamental Reform: Government must start to live within its means,…

  • In About A Half-Hour…

    …Emmer’s budget plan is going to be impacting. I won’t be able to write about it live – but I’ll have details tonight/early tomorow.

  • Dear DFL

    For two months, the DFL and media (pardon, as always, the redundancy) asked “Where’s the Emmer budget plan?”  They knew, of course, that it’d be stupid for Emmer to launch his plan at a time when nobody but reporters, wonks, partisans and political junkies cared about it – but that’s not how the Frame Game…

  • Here’s A Prediction For You

    If you look on the leftyblogs and on Twitter, you will see another surge of people referring to Tom Horner – the Independence Ventura party candidate – as “Republican Tom Horner”.  Especially since he was endorsed yesterday by “Republican” (albeit in name only ) former governor Arne Carlson. In fact, I think it looks like…

  • The Dayton Dustbowl: The Media’s Code Of Silence

    Gary Gross at Let Freedom Ring does the job the Twin Cities media juuuuust can’t seem to get around to (emphasis added by me): During his mini-infomercial with Esme Murphy, Mark Dayton admitted that the highest income tax rate he’d propose would be less than 11 percent. Based on Minnesota Department of Revenue guidelines, which…

  • The Emmer Plan: Part Two

    Just so we’re clear on this:  Mark Dayton’s education “plan” calls for three things: Gutting charter schools Ending federal-mandated testing Giving the teachers union a bunch of money. To contrast with this, Tom Emmer is releasing his own plan, as we speak. His education plan is focused on a few simple, key things: ensure that…

  • How Many Renoirs?

    The GOP is having a press conference at 10AM: Republican Party of Minnesota leaders Garofalo, Sutton, and Brodkorb to call on Mark Dayton to come clean on all financial holdings outside of the state of Minnesota. Hm. Wonder if the GOP is just a “lazy-ass activist?”

  • The Plan, Part I

    As this is written, Tom Emmer has just finished announcing Part One of his budget plan – the one that the DFL and the Chanting Class has been wondering about for the past two months. To paraphrase James Carville, Part One is about the jobs, stupid. Emmer is going to…: Lower The Corporate Income Tax.…

  • My Conversation With Every Single DFLer, Part II

    The conversation below is “Fake But Accurate”, and reflects things said – to me and otherwise – by DFLers in a variety of media over the past week or so.  I have synthethized those conversations into a single, “composite” character, whom I’ll nickname “EVERY DFLer” for clarity. Don’t try this if you’re not an English…

  • How The Hell Does Emmer Win This Thing?

    Let’s make no mistake about this; I’m predicting Tom Emmer is going to win this fall’s gubernatorial race.  It’s going to be tight – 3-4 points, very likely less – but he’s going to win.   On the chance – heaven forefend – that he doesn’t?  In the wake of Jesse Ventura and Al Franken,…

  • Just So We’re Clear On This

    I do believe Mark Dayton taught high school. I believe it because it’d be grindingly stupid for a public figure to lie about something that is as relatively easy to run down (even given New York City’s sclerotic bureaucracy) as whether he actually taught. And even if Mark Dayton were unaware of how nothing remotely…

  • Stolen Fervor?

    My dad taught high school – writing, English and especially Speech – for close to forty years.  He taught in two districts – Rugby and Jamestown, ND.  It’s not hard to prove it; everyone in Jamestown either had dad, or their kids did, or their parents did.  There were not a few two-generation families of…

  • Chanting Points Memo: Polls Apart

    While Pauline Kael, the doyenne of American film critics, passed away years ago, her syndrome is alive and well here in Minnesota. Yesterday’s MPR/Humphrey Institute poll, which showed Mark Dayton and Tom Emmer in a dead heat, drew a chorus of “bad methodology!” from the local leftysphere; none of their friends, after all, voted for…