Convention Weekend
Friday, May 29th, 2026Remember 1998?
Minnesota was doing so well that we could play a practical joke on ourselves.
We were one of the most successful states in the union. The combination of “good government” Democrats – naive, misguided but not actively malevolent – and a Republican Party that in retrospect still hadn’t caught up with the Reagan Revolution gave us a government that on the one hand did too much, but on the other hand kind of left things alone enough for them to work.
Things were so good that we could elect a professional wrestler as governor.
And things stayed good, or at least acceptable, until…
…well, sometime after 2010. I can’t quite place it – sometime between Mark Dayton’s election and 2020 – that that ended. Maybe it was the fourth tier of taxes, or the takeover of Minneapolis and then the DFL by the DSA, or Walz’s idiotic response to the pandemic.
But in that time, Minnesota has gone from one of the good states to somewhere between “laggard” and “death spiral”.
I’m not mongering doom – I think the state can be saved. But the slice of time where that’s possible is flying on by.
With that in mind? It’s convention weekend.
The DFL
The DFL’s convention is happening in Rochester. And the only real question is, “will it matter”? Klobuchar is going to win the nomination and, barring an epic October Surprise on fraud or corruption from the Feds, she’ll likely become governor. More on that when we come to the GOP side.
The Senate race – which is no longer a race – is more interesting. Angie Craig yesterday announced she’s headed straight to the primary, after learning 75% of the delegates were pledged to Peggy Flanagan.
In 2010, knowing the delegates were insane, Ken Martin stepped in and poured on the money to overthrow Margaret Anderson-Kellihers endorsement at the primary, with Mark Dayton. Eight years later, after the convention gave the nod to the Karen twins, Erin Murphy and Erin Maye Quade, as well as actual Communists Matthew Pelikan for attorney general, Martin brought in the money and the public union clout to jam down Walz and Flanagan as well as the relatively moderate Ellison in the primary.
Peggy Flanagan is likely the weakest statewide candidate the DFL has endorsed in my memory. She could be beaten – more on that below – and I suspect smart DFLs know that Craig would be a much easier sell outside 494/694.
If it we were talking about Ken Martin and a DFL before, say, 2020? No question about it, the statewide DFL leadership would yet again nullify the convention and jam down a more electable candidate.
But the DFL has changed since 2018 – they took their defeats in 2018 and 2021 (on the police funding question in Minneapolis) as a signal get really serious about taking over the DFL. And you can say two things about Richard Carlbom; no way, no how does he look like a young Hermann Gôring, and he’s no Ken Martin.
I wouldn’t put it past the DFL, though. I know if I were a GOP Senate candidate, I’d much rather face Flanagan.
The MNGOP
The Governors race appears to be a tossup between Speaker of the House Lisa Demuth and Kendall Qualls, although Mike Lindell has been doing well in Central Minnesota and has some strong delegate support as well. I suspect Demuth will win the endorsement, and I’m going to guess it goes to a. primary. I like both Demuth and Qualls (Lindell’s got a great story, but in the general he’ll make the GOP long for the good old days of Kurt Bills), and I think Demuth has the lead with delegates so far, but let’s be honest – the real key to this election lies with the Feds, and if they drop a huge string of indictments against key DFLers in October. And the media will be doing its best to mute even that.
And it’s a shame, because getting a Republican – any Republican – into the executive branch to check and balance the DFL’s depredations may be the only sustainable hope the state has to pull out of the tailspin it’s in.
So fingers crossed for the Feds.
For the Senate race?
This is the first time I’ve harbored any genuine hope in a Minnesota senate race since the mugging they call the 2008 election – mostly because Peggy Flanagan is such a very weak candidate.
The three contenders are Adam Schwarze, Michelle Tafoya and Royce White.
I follow the Buckley Commandment – vote for the most conservative candidate who can win.
White has his proponents – mostly among the “burn it all down” crowd pushed by “Action4Liberty”. A4L has cracked the code on weaponizing ignorance of politics and, along with “Minnesota Gun Rights”, profits from defeat. I don’t see him getting the nomination, “rocks and cows” support notwithstanding. He will , I suspect, have enough oomph to be a kingmaker or to deny any endorsement at all.
It’s going to be be between Adam Schwarze and Michelle Tafoya. Schwarze likely has the lead among the delegates, although Tafoya has been working the room pretty hard for someone who is generally considered to be headed for the primary.
Schwarze has all the things that delegates and activists love – a former SEAL, impeccable conservative credentials, and a vow to abide by the endorsement. He’s also got next to no name recognition outside party activists, and will have to buy some by November.
Tafoya has some cons – a stance on abortion that is simultaneously too accomodationist for many GOP activists and identical to Donald Trump’s position (12 weeks), and a “path to citizenship” stance on immigration that is a poor sell at the convention but likely not a problem in Maple Grove. She’s also got name recognition, is raising serious money, and has at least some polling showing her close to the margin of error against Flanagan.
I’d pay money to see either of them debating Flanagan or Craig.
So – who is the most conservative candidate who can beat Flanagn or Craig?






