The new MPR/Humphrey Poll shows Dayton at 38, Emmer at 27 and Horner at 16.
Fishy? Oh, yeah; Brauer writes at MinnPost:
One of the wacky things about the 750-voter, landline-only, five-day survey is how much partisan ID shifted in just a month. August’s poll was 46 percent GOP, 41 percent Democrat — the only major survey with a Republican plurality. This one is 48 percent Dem, 38 percent GOP.
Humphrey Institute Prof. Larry Jacobs ascribes this to renewed DFL enthusiasm.
At the risk of being accused of Pauline Kael syndrome – what DFL enthusiasm?
At the risk of being called a cynic, I’d say Jacobs has a bit of a chicken-and-egg issue here. The poll is here – again, this is an accused cynic talking – to boost that enthusiasm.
However, the dramatic shift will inflame the doubters, particularly GOP partisans, whose rightest wing generally regards the HHH poll as the junior member of a Strib-led pro-DFL Gruesome Twosome.
Well, that’s cutting it a bit finely. We can be more broad than that. The HHH, the Strib and MPR are all pr0-DFL – or at least pro-big-government – institutions. Whether by accident or design, their polling operations reflect their institutions’ biases and, at this point of the election.
This demands a little more discussion of how the poll determines likely voters, a topic I broached the other day.
Why yes. Yes, it does.
UPDATE: Look – the logical side of my brain says “these numbers, and those in the MNPoll, do not, no way, no how, pass the stench test”.
The not-so-logical, inductive side of my brain is the part filling in the rest. Which isn’t to say I don’t think there’s something to it.
UPDATE 2: Welcome Politics in Minnesota reader!