SCENE:   At the state DFL headquarters in Saint Paul.   Richard CARLBOM, new chair of the DFL, is sitting at a conference table with Edmund DUCHEY, Moonbeam BIRKENSTOCK and Inge “Lucky” CARROLL, all members of Amy KLOBUCHAR’s staff. 

CARLBOM:  So, we’ve got a real problem with white males in rural Minnesota.  That could be a big enough problem that the urban vote machine won’t be able to cover the difference next year.

So – no dumb ideas, people. 

(Thinking ensues).

DUCHEY:  I got it.  What do rural white guys like more than anything?

BIRKENSTOCK:  Racism!

CARROLL:  Misogyny…

DUCHEY:  Hockey!

CARLBOM:  Er…not exactly what we’re looking for…er, maybe we can expand on hockey.  What draws white rural men to hockey?

CARROLL: :  Misogyny!

DUCHEY: VIolence

BIRKENSTOCK:  Being drunk!

CARLBOM:  Bingo!   They lik4 drinking.  

We need to appeal to rural white male Minnesotans love of beer!

CARROLL: Boom! That’s exactly the look we want!

DUCHEY:  Empty glass!  Three sheets to the wind!

CARLBOM:  Er…

And SCENE

The Piglet isn’t running for Senate:

That leaves the field with:

• Lt. Governor Flanagan, the one-time extremist who has drifted toward the center-left, at least as compared to
• Ilhan Omar and
• Leigh Finke.
• Al Franken is also riumored to be thinking about wanting to go back to DC.  
• Angie Crag, who just keeps barely portraying herself as “moderate” in defending her always vulnerable House seat. 

The DFL’s big advantage is their chair has far more power to shape the election field than the GOP chair does.  I suspect the wrangling before, during and after the DFL convention will reflect the wishes of whomever is the MNDFL’s sitting char.   If it were still Ken Martin, I’d suspect a lot of push behind Rep. Craig – I can’t see that the other three contenders aren’t going to have problems outside 494/694.  Franken’s a wild card – but he’s also 73.  

There are mainstream (i.e. less overtly Maoist) DFLers who say they think Craig may have an inside shot.   Which would open up CD2, which has been vulnerable ever since Jason Lewis left the seat – provided the CD2 GOP can coalesce around a viable candidate, rather

As to Walz running for a third term?   That’s gotta be a big lift – but with seemingly every other contender for statewide office in the ring for Senate, it’s hard to see who in the DFL would oppose him, as the field looks now – or which of them would do better in a Governor race. 

The wildest card of all, of course, would be vintage DFL:  Senator Smith resigns early, Walz appoints either himself or whichever candidate has the current favor of the DFL (himself or Craig, I’d suspect), potentially leaving that choice and Lt. Gov. Flanagan as incumbents next year.  

At any rate – the opportunity is there for the MNGOP, if they can tame the circuilar firing squad for one lousy cycle. 

And the size of that “if” seems to defy physics. 

Tina Smith is retiring from the Senate, citing health.

So – who’s turn is it in DC?

Tim Walz has made noises about running – and clearly lusts after DC real estate.  More on that maybe next week.

Peggy Flanagan came right out of the gate, though, and announced yesterday. 

No huge surprise there. 

Of course, some of her support rates a grim chuckle:

Her “lived experience” is entirely as part of the non-profit/DFL/industrial complex; she has never not been a first or second-tier government employee.

As to “proven leadership?” The only issue I can recall about her actually leading, as opposed to posturing…

…was when as chair of the Capitol Architecture Committee she let a group of her cronies tear down the statue of Christopher Columbus on the Capitol mall, and then made sure their leader and token arrestee was “sentenced” to teach kids about the evils of Christopher Columbus.

Now that’s leadership.

Besides Walz (ahem), we’ve Ilhan Omar, Jacob Frey, and we’ve got late-breaking rumors that Leigh Finke is mulling throwintg Leigh Finke’s hat into the ring:

When I saw Angie Craig jamming Mary Moriarty into the wood chipper last week…

…. I figured there was a reason.

And MPR apparently thinks so as well:

Most congressional districts in the nation and in Minnesota are considered either firmly Republican or Democratic. That’s not the case in the 2nd District, which comprises much of the south metro area, but also stretches deep into rural south-central Minnesota. 

The combination of near-urban, suburban and rural voters makes the district viable ground for both parties.

The district’s Republican Party Chair, Joseph Ditto, said 2024 is his party’s best opportunity in years to defeat Craig, who won the prior three elections by close margins. 

Of course, the DFL money and media machines will be working overtime to put lipstick on the metaphorical progressive pig that Craig is once she goes to DC:

Craig has a massive fund-raising advantage. Craig has raked in more than $3 million for this race so far. That’s more than five times as much as her Republican challengers raised combined.

Craig had more than $2 million in the bank to start the year.

Outside groups have also indicated plans to play heavily in the district, one of relatively few targeted races in the country.

In a district where independent voters will prove pivotal, Craig is promoting efforts to reach agreement with Republicans on issues ranging from combatting fentanyl smuggling to stopping congressional pay raises. Five press releases in March alone use “bipartisan” in the headline.

We’ve been used to Craig rolling out TV ads driving offroad in a Jeep, to try to burnish her “not like those DFLers” cred.

I fully expect to see a new one with her at the range with matching AK47s in each hand.

Amy Klobuchar should be thankful to the feminist goddess that Tina Smith is in Congress.

Because as long as she is, A-Klo is not the dumbest Senator in our delegation.

Shot:

Chaser:

To be fair, Smith says it because she knows Democrat voters don’t do critical thought.

It’s finally Election Day and we can all breathe easier now that we won’t have to see Angie Craig’s alternating rictus grin/contorted face of rage multiple times a day on television, social media and other media. But will we see Craig going forward? While I sincerely hope not, it’s difficult to know. So let’s hazard a few guesses on how it will play out today and in the coming days.

Governor: Tim Walz deserves to be tossed out on his well-padded posterior, but I suspect he and Peggy Flanagan will survive. Scott Jensen ran a decent campaign but it’s difficult to overcome all paid advertising from Alida Messinger and the free advertising from the Esme Murphys of the local media.

Secretary of State: Steve Simon is a smooth operator and Kim Crockett is not. Should those traits matter? No, but they do. Simon wins.

Attorney General: We have had the DFL Lucys pull this football away before. Recent polling suggests Keith Ellison is in trouble and that Jim Schultz is leading. Do you believe it? I don’t, but I sincerely hope I’m wrong.

Auditor: If the Republicans are allowed to win a statewide office, it will likely be this one. Republican Ryan Wilson has run a fine campaign and you can’t spell blah without DFLer Julie Blaha. The auditor has limited power but a committed auditor can at least turn over a few rocks the DFL would prefer to keep stationary. Wilson wins.

CD-2: While there are 8 congressional districts in Minnesota, apparently only the 2nd is being contested this year. We’ve seen dozens, maybe hundreds of ads featuring the odious incumbent, Angie Craig, and her rival Tyler Kistner. It’s been a nasty race and Craig has serious money behind her. She’s vulnerable because of redistricting, but it’s not clear to me that Kistner has made the sale. A left wing veteran’s group has also run some stolen valor ads in the final weekend that may affect the outcome; I have not been able to determine if their claims are accurate, but if Kistner loses, that last-minute attack might make the difference. As an aside, I really wish we’d seen Republicans make more of an effort in CD-3, where it’s been entirely too easy for Dean Phillips.

Elsewhere: Control of the House and Senate are at stake and the deep unpopularity of the Democrats will almost certainly mean Congress will be in Republican hands in 2023. A few guesses on races in other states:

Wisconsin: while the population and demographics of Wisconsin are similar to Minnesota, Wisconsin is not a blue state. Milwaukee and Madison are lefty enclaves, but their overall population is less than 40% of the total population, while the Twin Cities are about 60% of the total population here. As a result, it is easier for Republicans to win. Ron Johnson, the incumbent Republican senator, is a bit on the crusty side, but he’s a smart, effective campaigner and looks to be a good bet to win against his opponent, Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes, a gladhander in the Hakeem Jeffries/Barack Obama style, but less effective. In the governor’s race, Republican challenger Tim Michels is also a bit crusty, but the fluke incumbent governor, Democrat Tony Evers, is an ineffective milquetoast. Look for the Republicans to win both. (more…)

They’ve been in office a combined total of thousands of years.

Two months before the midterm elections, the three of them erupt in a spurt of tweeting about needing to reform congressional stock trading laws.

Gosh, I wonder why?

The good news for the three of them? This is the last that will be heard of it. Because they are DFLers.



I’m going to guess some internal poles give representatives Angie Craig and Dean Phillips a bit of a wake up call.

2022: representatives Craig and Phillips have a bit of a change of heart, just in time for midterms:

I’m going to guess that all those soccer moms in Lakeville and Wayzata aren’t amused at the news of carjackings filtering out to the burbs.

I wouldn’t say there was much in the way of “surprises“ in the primaries last night. Mostly confirmation of existing hunches, and a brief stab of hope followed by waves and waves of confirmation that Minneapolis is not only screwed, but seems hell-bent on participating in its own screwing.

The marquee race, Don Samuels tackling Ilhan Omar, ended up a lot closer than I, or anyone, I suspect, figured it might.

That is painfully close. A few hundred people who kvetch about crime turning out? A few hundred Republicans crossing over? An errand thunderstorm? All could’ve affected the results enough to retire Omar.

I have to expect the results surprised congresswoman Omar as well; she ran almost no television, and a fairly languid campaign up until the frenzied (and occasionally tone deaf) tour with The Squad this past week. Primaries usually draw the party’s loyalists to the polls – the hard-core who also go to caucuses and the next layer outward. In Minneapolis. that generally means white, upper-middle-class progressives, and public union employees. I haven’t looked at the precinct results yet, but I have to suspect Samuels started getting people to the polls who normally wait ’til November, if at all, to vote.

Omar pulled it off by two points. If she doesn’t focus on crime, and Minneapolis continues to deteriorate, someone else – Samuels, or some new law and order DFLer – might have a shot.

Which is probably the closest thing we can find to a silver lining on the next two races.

In Hennepin County races, the top two finishers in the primary go onto the general election. and if the choices of the county voters gave themselves last night are any indication, there is going to be a big opportunity for a “law and order“ candidate in two years.

It’s hard to come up with an adjective phrase even softer than “soft on crime” to describe the choices that will move to the November ballot. Mary Moriarty and Martha Holton Dimick will be the “options“ this fall for Hennepin county attorney. Mori

And for sheriff, committed progressive Dawanna Witt will square off against Joseph “Who?” Banks. When Witt wins, she will make Dave Hutchinson look like Ted Nugent.

Last night – at least as re the CD5 DFL primary – was a little spasm of common sense and protest voting in the highest profile race in the city, the results are fairly clear; the people who come out of the primaries are fine with Minneapolis’s status quo.

On the other hand, the DFL finally cut itself loose from its biggest public relations boondoggle of 2020; John Thompson got pummeled, with a level of voting that suggests orders went out from party HQ:

And in house district 52 a – the area around my radio station – the reliably moderate, center left Sandy Mason got pummeled…

by…

Liz Reyer.

Liz who?

I don’t know who she is, but she pulled off the exceptionally difficult combination of “ELCA hair“ and pink. Not just literally, but figuratively and morally:

So Eagan has moved from center left to “Alandra Cano“ territory.

On the GOP side: Jim Schultz beat back a challenge from Doug Wardlow, to advance to run against Keith Ellison for Attorney General this fall.

Every time I see these, I have to ask – who are the 12 freaking percent of people who vote for Sharon Anderson?

I’ve got nothing against Wardlow; I’ve emceed or spoken at five of his fundraisers over the years. but I’m having a bigger and bigger problem with people defying the party endorsement. Especially after saying they would honor it.

Speaking of honoring endorsements: in the new 33B, endorsed candidate Mark Bischofsky prevailed over Tina Riehle, a candidate supported by most of the GOP brass (including Kurt Daudt and Karin Housley, who took a break from opining for the sanctity of the endorsement to float Riehle against the endorsed candidate, for reasons I am just not advanced enough an intelligence to figure out)

Here’s hoping the GOP can pull it together enough to get behind the primary winner, and flip that very winnable seat.

To: The Hon. Rep. Dean Phillips (MN-03)
From: Mitch Berg, Irascible Peasant
Re: Burning Daylilght, Bucko

Rep. Phillips.

You recently tweeted this:

Well that’s great.

But I’ve got some questions.

For starters: you’ve had two years with control of the presidency and both chambers of Congress. Why, 2.5 years into this period of complete control, are you suddenly concerned with jobs leaving, prices rising, debt skyrocketing, the price of medicine and “climate change”?

Did you used to wait to do your school projects to 9PM the night before they were due? Did your entire conference?

Also – as I asked your colleague Rep. Craig the other day – what powers to you, a Congressperson, have to affect any of those issues via your votes?

To: Rep. Angie Craig
From: Mitch Berg, Irascible Peasant
Re: Your Superpowers

Rep. Craig,

The other day, you tweeted this:

Please tell us what ability you, a Congressional Rep and member of the Legislative Branch, have to influence the price of commodities, like gasoline?

Also – you’re aware that gas prices are falling because the market is reacting to the recession that your party is trying to tell us doesn’t exist, right?

That is all.

Every election, and GOP primary, is a “referendum on Donald Trump”.

Just ask the Democrats and media (ptr), who want and need every election to be a referendum on Orange Literal Hitler.

Of course, as a conservative who wants to see DeSantis mop the floor with whomever the order of succession puts up against him – Harris? Pelosi? Buttigieg? Beto O’Rourke? – in 2024, I’d very much like the whole “referendum on Trump” thing to shut up and go away.

The Youngkin victory in Virginia last fall should have put that to bed – he was elected while the Democrats tried to make the vote about Trump, and still try to retroactively apply him to the race – but then, our media being dishonest about this sort of thing is hardly Man Bites Dog, now, is it?

This past week has given both sides evidence.

The primary in Pennsylvania earlier this week had Dr. Mehment “Doctor Oz” Oz winning the Senate primary – but by a narrow enough margin that Trump reportedly may start swearing off endorsing people.

On the other hand, in Georgia, Trump’s bete noir Governor Kemp cruised to a comically easy victory over Trump-endorsed Perdue in the race against Stacey Abrams, the unelected real president of the US and EU.

In the meantime, a week that saw Madison Cawthorne exit his race, saw Marjorie Taylor Greene winning her contest handily.

My two cents: The battle will center on the GOP fight against the depredations of Obama’s third term, versus the Democrats trying to stretch Donald Trump’s relevance two years beyond his exit from office.

Meanwhile, in Minnesota, the CD1 primary ended in a recount-worthy race between Brad Finstad and Jeremy Munson…

…and a blowout of Jim Hagedorn’s widow and, uh, controversial former MNGOP chair Jennifer Carnahan.

Who may still seek a recount, for all we know.

In addition to a number of primaries that may or may not be referenda on Donald Trump, depending on who you ask (more tomorrow, hopefully), today is the first of four drama-clogged elections in Minnesota’s First Congressional District.

As the Strib notes, there are twenty candidates in the running. The DFL (8 candidates) and GOP (10) ones are vying for a significant shot on the ballot in a special election coming up on August 9.

You can fairly feel the media, practically begging for a strong performance by Jennifer Carnahan, widow of the late Rep. Hagedorn and controversial former state GOP chair. It’d guarantee a couple months of soap-opera drama before a DFL victory – a win-win for the DFL and media (pardon the redundancy). Matt Benda has the money; State reps Jeremy Munson and (to a lesser extent) Nils Pierson have the political name recognition.

Tomorrow’s going to be a fun one.

This blog hasn’t shown a lot of love for Ilhan Omar.

There are a lot of good reasons for that.

But as Greenwald points out, there’s more than one dimension to keep in mind:

The first point in particular – I was unaware of it, but am happy to see she stood on a principle most of us can agree on.

It almost physically hurts to say it, but ya gotta give her some credit.

The honeymoon won’t last, but let’s give her that.

This past Saturday, I had a Minnesota Fifth congressional district republican congressional candidate Cicely “Cee Cee“ Davis on the show.

Ilhan Omar is entitled to equal time.

If you’re one of Rep. Omar’s people, have her call my people. she is entitled to equal time.

I hope she claims it.

…get the impression that the members of the power-clique known as “the Squad” – AOC, Ayanna Presley, Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar – got the way they are because they were the “Mean Girls” in Junior High, and either never grew out of it or recovered that inner character flaw when they got into power?

Not sure why that occurred to me…

To: Senator Klobuchar
From: Mitch Berg, Irascible Peasant
Re: Whoah, There…

Senator Klobuchar,

Thanks for taking a clear, principled stance on controversial issues like…

(checks notes)

…repealing Daylight Savings Time.

It’s a time for leaders to lead. But don’t fly too close to the sun.

That is all.

…is that as the things considered “Virtues” change, so do the signals.

…don’t get cocky.

But a Democrat who’s in power and isn’t overreaching like a crack whore with a stolen Obsidian Card probably isn’t much of a Democrat.

And it just may cost them.

A friend of the blog writes:

I say we name a snow plow “Amy Klobuchar”.

She’s not getting named to anything else.

Not making it to post(electoral) season. How very Minnesotan.

Usual disclaimers about “the only poll that counts is on November 3 [1] inserted here.

But pessimist that I am, I really didn’t see this coming

KSTP/SURVEYUSA: Tina Smith 43%; Jason Lewis 42%; 12% undecided; 3% people other. Confidence Interval +/- 5%. Smith had 11-point lead in September and 7-point lead earlier this month. pic.twitter.com/mX91q0MI6X

— Tom Hauser (@thauserkstp) October 21, 2020

Fluke?

Polls finding more-likely voters, ones who’ve actually been paying attention?

We’ll see.

I’ve heard more than a few fellow D-list pundits exclaim disbelief at “12% undecided”. I’m going to chalk that up to some misdirected Pauline Kael syndrome, from people who “write”/tweet about politics constantly, thinking everyone is the same as they are. Smith has tried hard to follow A-Klo’s model of being innocuous and invisible. We’ll see if it works.

Lewis beating the Butcher Of Vandalia would be an early Christmas present.

[1] And, let’s be honest, as we saw in 2008 and 2010, it still may not count, really, but let’s try not to go completely down the rabbit hole.

We’re told as of yesterday that Senator Klobuchar’s husband is in the hospital with National Healthcare VIrus.

In the statement, Klobuchar said [husband John] Bessler had a fever and was coughing up blood. He was checked into a hospital in Virginia and is receiving oxygen but is not on a ventilator.

“I love my husband so very much and not being able to be there at the hospital by his side is one of the hardest things about this disease,” Klobuchar said in a statement.

“While I cannot see him and he is of course cut off from all visitors, our daughter Abigail and I are constantly calling and texting and emailing,” she went on to state. “We love him very much and pray for his recovery. He is exhausted and sick but a very strong and resilient person.”

All these years pf campaign appearances and debates and fairground ops and every other kind of contact with her constituents, and I do not recall seeing any mention of John Bessier. Am I dense, or is the media softplaying his existence?

Or, for that matter their status (she’s in DC, he’s teaching law somewhere in Maryland)?

Speaking of Softpedaling: Ih this piece about John Bessier, the Channel 5 report helpfully finishes with this bit:

Klobuchar said she is working in the Senate to ensure Americans receive the help they need.

Sounds like reporter Rebecca Omastiak is bucking for campaign communications gig.

Twin Cities Media and Left (ptr), 2015: “Black Lives Matter were heroes for shutting down I94 during rush hour! Speak truth to power! Up next – Amanda Shapely at the Boat Show”

Twin Cities Media and the Left (ptr) 2020: “Black Lives Matter are a bunch of hooligans! Why weren’t the police able to keep order at Amy’s…er, Senator Klobuchar’s event?”

Senator Klobuchar, fresh off having a third-place finish in a decreasingly important primary hailed like the victory march in Paris by a local who has acted like her personal PR firm ever since they were all getting pass-out drunk with her father, has this to say about gun control:

During the first 2020 Democratic primary debate, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar said if there is a mandatory buyback, it would not involve gun confiscation.

“Gun confiscation, right, if the government is buying back, how do you not have that conversation?” moderator Chuck Todd asked.

“Well, that’s not gun confiscation because you give them the offer to buy back their gun,” Klobuchar said

Oh. It’s just a buyback.

OK. Not selling.

Now what?

They never answer this one directly, do they?

I may have to go to one of her “town halls” and ask her directly.

Oh, yeah – she said this:

“I look at these proposals and I say, ‘Does this hurt my uncle Dick and his deer stand?’ coming from a proud hunting and fishing state? These ideas don’t do that,” she added.

If her “Uncle Dick” is stupid enough to believe they won’t be coming for his precious dear rifle when, not if their current round of “gun safety” laws fail to make anyone safer, then Dick might just be a lifelong DFLer anyway.

Rep. Omar on Twitter yesterday:

There’s hope here!

If your healthcare, tuition and housing are “Free” (ergo, paid by me, the taxpayer who gets none of those benefits), I am your slave, and being a slaveholder is a moral burden on you as well.

I’m pretty sure Rep. Omar didn’t intend it that way, of course – as her droogs make pretty clear in the thread (and if there’s a 2020’s analogue to “never read the comment section”, it’s gotta be “never read the thread of someone with a blue checkmark).

But you never know.

Maybe Omar will finally get into trouble with Squad leadership for this gaffe…