I haven’t talked – here, anyway – about last week’s primaries.  I’m a little astounded, to be honest – Minnesota Republicans defied Trump’s misguided endorsement and the misdirecting bleating of “Action 4 Liberty” and voted for Michele Tafoya for Senate and Lisa Demuth for Governor. 

Neither is a perfect conservative.  Either were the most conservative candidate who could win.  Not saying they will – although Peggy Flanagan is vulnerable, and an October surprise from the Feds would make the governor’s race interesting. 

But let’s talk about the opposition. 

Alycia Gruenhagen is running a write-in campaign against Tafoya, calling her “pro-choice”.  Which is technically true – she’s got the same stance as President Trump has, and as I recall Gruenhagen was a solid Trump supporter.   She’s one of a group of Minnesota Republicans who apparently believes that a vote is representation of one’s aspirations, not a way to push policy.   

I keep asking them this.  

Let’s say there’s a candidate – call them Candidate A – who favors abortion until birth and after.  She’s got 45% of the vote before the election. 

There’s a moderate – Candidate B – who would ban abortion after 12 weeks.  B has 40% locked up.  

There’s a hardliner, Candidate C, who would bulldoze Planned Parenthood and salt the earth.  C has 1% of the vote.  

If you are a pro-lifer, there are five options (since voting for “A” is presumably a no-go)

1. You can vote for B, reducing A’s lead.  If enough follow suit, B could win. 
2. You can vote for C, which doesn’t reduce As lead and making B’s path to victory one vote harder. 
3. You can write in someone else.  Again, doesn’t reduce A’s lead.  
4. You can abstain.  Same result. 

Any choice but #1 makes a pro-infantide victory more likely – in effect, making your pro-life vote a pro-choice vote.  

Ms. Gruenhagen seems to have blocked my comments on her website, so the logic must be an issue…

I have been crazy busy with my business (more later), so I haven’t been blogging nonstop about the primaries like I might have a few years back. 

But I’m about as excited as I allow myself to get, under the circumstances. 

I’ve got Republican friends who are upset that the GOP-endorsed candidates got pretty much ignored this time around.  After the convention, Walter Hudson had a great question:  what is the endorsement worth?  If it doesn’t come with advancing name recognition and funding in the primary, then to what exactly is one being loyal?

Anyway – let’s talk about the races:

Senate

I’ve got Republican friends who said Michele Tafoya was a non-starter because of her stance on abortion.  

These are also die-hard MAGA voters who want Trump to run for a third term.  

They have the same stance on abortion.   Identical. 

And neither Senator will vote on any abortion related issue – because Donbs three the issue back to the states.   The only abortion related vote that’s on the Senate’s docket is the hearings for whoever replaces Samuel Alito or Clarence Thomas when they someday leave the bench.  Who would you rather have voting on that – the “imperfectly” conservative Tafoya or the DSA-adjacent Flanagan?

Choose wisely. 

And it’s nice to have a Senate who’s not “Dead Candidate Walking” right out of the gate for a change – remember Royce White, Kurt Bills and Mike McFadden?  No?   After a decade and a half of watching the top of the ticket drag the down-ballot races, it’s fun seeing a race where the top might just  have a shot at lifting the rest of the field.  

Governor

Is Lisa Demuth a perfect conservative?  No.   And as Speaker for two years with an evenly divided House and a DFL Senate and Governor, it’s a given that she’s got her name on some bad votes.  Divided government leads to horse-trading.  There’s a frightening share of MNGOPs that think yelling loudly about the purity of ones principles wins races and slashes DFL power. 

She wasn’t the most conservative candidate in the primary.  But I think she’s the most conservative who can win.  

Who was the last statewide elected GOP official?  Tim Pawlenty.  

The haters called him “RINO”.  

The rest of the state called him “Governor”. 

Remember that – having a GOP governor?   Able to veto bad laws and sign good ones, and use the bully pulpit for fiscal sanity/. When Minneapolis was a beacon and the streets were safe?

All the evidence available showed Mike Lindell would have dragged the ticket (even before his self-immolation on immigration).  And there’s a solid chance to flip the Senate, with 1-3 DFL seats feeling. pretty squishy (Kupec, Seeberger and especially Hauschild).  If we don’t lose a bunch of other seats because of yet another self-inflicted wound at the top of the ticket, we could flip the seat, take CD2 back, and be I a good position for the 2028 races with, hopefully, a presidential bump.  

Why would we want that, after all ?

I’ve said it a time or two in the past – Trump is as Trump does.  I didn’t vote for him in 2016, but he impressed me enough to figure he was worth holding my nose and voting for him in 2020 as the lesser of two evils – holding my nose because of his really terrible down-ticket performance.  Four years of Biden, and I didn’t hold my nose two years ago, hoping that his election-time hijinx would moderate a bit. 

Yeah, about that. 

You’ve no doubt heard Trump endorsed Mike Lindell for governor.  

Joe Doakes., once of Como Park, emails:

Trump endorsed candidate for governor, Mike Lindell, goes wobbly on immigration.  Idiot.

I know, he didn’t actually call for amnesty, he called for a temporary moratorium so illegals could get legalized.  That might have been a reasonable position a couple of years ago.  But after the craziness of attacking ICE officers, billions lost to fraud, and Walz actually pardoning a child molester to keep him in the country, the Overton Window has shifted.  

I don’t want illegals to be legalized, I want them to be gone.  All illegals, criminals, workers, families, all of them, gone, and cut off from all government money, welfare and scams alike.

Mitch called it – Lindell is a terrible candidate and will go down in flames.  I hate when that happens.  

Joe Doakes

 

 

The race appears to be coming down to Lindell vs. Demuth – and between voters who think in terms of magical thinking about big statements, stories and proposals, and doing a dirty, ugly job well.   Which means negotiating, which in a divided government inevitably means compromise.   

Like Pawlenty before her, Demuth is a legislative leader.  And Demuth accomplished a lot in two years – stopping the DFL cold and elevating the fraud issue outside the legislative branch to the national stage.  It’s boring stuff with exciting results.  

And she – and Qualls, for that matter – deserve. better than to have Trump plotz the entire race. 

But here we are.  

Remember 1998? 

Minnesota was doing so well that we could play a practical joke on ourselves.   

We were one of the most successful states in the union.  The combination of “good government” Democrats – naive, misguided but not actively malevolent – and a Republican Party that in retrospect still hadn’t caught up with the Reagan Revolution gave us a government that on the one hand did too much, but on the other hand kind of left things alone enough for them to work.  

Things were so good that we could elect a professional wrestler as governor.  

And things stayed good, or at least acceptable, until…

…well, sometime after 2010.  I can’t quite place it – sometime between Mark Dayton’s election and 2020 – that that ended.   Maybe it was the fourth tier of taxes, or the takeover of Minneapolis and then the DFL by the DSA, or Walz’s idiotic response to the pandemic.  

But in that time, Minnesota has gone from one of the good states to somewhere between “laggard” and “death spiral”.  

I’m not mongering doom – I think the state can be saved.  But the slice of time where that’s possible is flying on by.  

With that in mind?  It’s convention weekend.   

The DFL

The DFL’s convention is happening in Rochester.   And the only real question is, “will it matter”?  Klobuchar is going to win the nomination and, barring an epic October Surprise on fraud or corruption from the Feds, she’ll likely become governor.   More on that when we come to the GOP side.  

The Senate race – which is no longer a race – is more interesting.  Angie Craig yesterday announced she’s headed straight to the primary, after learning 75% of the delegates were pledged to Peggy Flanagan.   

In 2010, knowing the delegates were insane, Ken Martin stepped in and poured on the money to overthrow Margaret Anderson-Kellihers endorsement at the primary, with Mark Dayton.  Eight years  later, after the convention gave the nod to the Karen twins, Erin Murphy and Erin Maye Quade, as well as actual Communists Matthew Pelikan for attorney general, Martin brought in the money and the public union clout to jam down Walz and Flanagan as well as the relatively moderate Ellison in the primary. 

Peggy Flanagan is likely the weakest statewide candidate the DFL has endorsed in my memory.   She could be beaten – more on that below – and I suspect smart DFLs know that Craig would be a much easier sell outside 494/694.   

If it we were talking about Ken Martin and a DFL before, say, 2020?  No question about it, the statewide DFL leadership would yet again nullify the convention and jam down a more electable candidate.  

But the DFL has changed since 2018 – they took their defeats in 2018 and 2021 (on the police funding question in Minneapolis) as a signal get really serious about taking over the DFL.  And you can say two things about Richard Carlbom; no way, no how does he look like a young Hermann Gôring, and he’s no Ken Martin.   

I wouldn’t put it past the DFL, though. I know if I were a GOP Senate candidate, I’d much rather face Flanagan.  

The MNGOP

The Governors race appears to be a tossup between Speaker of the House Lisa Demuth and Kendall Qualls, although Mike Lindell has been doing well in Central Minnesota and has some strong delegate support as well.   I suspect Demuth will win the endorsement, and I’m going to guess it goes to a. primary.  I like both Demuth and Qualls (Lindell’s got a great story, but in the general he’ll make the GOP long for the good old days of Kurt Bills), and I think Demuth has the lead with delegates so far, but let’s be honest – the real key to this election lies with the Feds, and if they drop a huge string of indictments against key DFLers in October.  And the media will be doing its best to mute even that.  

And it’s a shame, because getting a Republican – any Republican – into the executive branch to check and balance the DFL’s depredations may be the only sustainable hope the state has to pull out of the tailspin it’s in.  

So fingers crossed for the Feds.  

For the Senate race?  

This is the first time I’ve harbored any genuine hope in a Minnesota senate race since the mugging they call the 2008 election – mostly because Peggy Flanagan is such a very weak candidate. 

The three contenders are Adam Schwarze, Michelle Tafoya and Royce White.  

I follow the Buckley Commandment – vote for the most conservative candidate who can win. 

White has his proponents – mostly among the “burn it all down” crowd pushed by “Action4Liberty”.   A4L has cracked the code on weaponizing ignorance of politics and, along with “Minnesota Gun Rights”, profits from defeat. I don’t see him getting the nomination, “rocks and cows” support notwithstanding.   He will , I suspect, have enough oomph to be a kingmaker or to deny any endorsement at all.  

It’s going to be be between Adam Schwarze and Michelle Tafoya.   Schwarze likely has the lead among the delegates, although Tafoya has been working the room pretty hard for someone who is generally considered to be headed for the primary.  

Schwarze has all the things that delegates and activists love – a former SEAL, impeccable conservative credentials, and a vow to abide by the endorsement.  He’s also got next to no name recognition outside party activists, and will have to buy some by November.   

Tafoya has some cons – a stance on abortion that is simultaneously too accomodationist for many GOP activists and identical to Donald Trump’s position (12 weeks), and a “path to citizenship” stance on immigration that is a poor sell at the convention but likely not a problem in Maple Grove.  She’s also got name recognition, is raising serious money, and has at least some polling showing her close to the margin of error against Flanagan.  

I’d pay money to see either of them debating Flanagan or Craig.  

So – who is the most conservative candidate who can beat Flanagn or Craig?

I started hearing blips last week that Governor Walz was going to get defenestrated from the Governor’s race.  The big donors that run the DFL were worried he’s going to be a drag on the ticket.  

It got a little more official last night:

Reports say Amy Klobuchar may get in the governor’s race. 

This is, of course pretty brilliant for the DFL.   Rumor has it they want to run on an “Anti-Fraud” platform next year.  Klobuchar hasn’t been implicated – so she’ll make that a little less incongruous.  And if she loses, she keeps her Senate seat, and if she wins, Walz appoints her successor.   

The only two risks?  

• The GOP getting its act together and running a well-funded, universally supported candidate that can deliver the right message with enough force to get past mid-Minnesotans Fudds and their attachment to two generations of the Klobuchar name, and
• The Feds bringing in a lot more indictments that make, er, other parts of the ticket squirm a little.  

I’m thinking “B” is more likely, but I’ve love to be suprised. 

FFS.  Hasn’t this state suffered enough?

Look, I love the pillows.  I have several.  Make pillows.  

But Mike – who came in third at the State Central Committee straw poll with something like 15% of the vote, for now – is backed by Action 4 Liberty, which is to conservative politics what Minnesota Gun Rights are to, well, gun rights: a group that weaponizes ignorance to make more money from defeat than from victory.   

Somone make it stop. 

I’m not sure what Walter Hudson’s political plans are.   

But this particular video reminds me of Reagan’s “A Time For Choosing”:

It’s a difference choice – good vs. evil, as opposed to freedom vs. communism.  

And so maybe not all that different at all.  

For years – longer than just about anyone – I’ve been writing about “Minnesota Gun Rights”, a group from Iowa whose “business” model is to raise money on ignorance about gun control legislation. 

The usual cycle is a little like this: 

1. They raise a hysterical alarm about some piece of legislation that may or may not be moving in the legislature.  
2. They accuse Republicans of going soft on guns.  Given that no Minnesota Republican has voted “yea” on a final bill supporting any sort of gun control in almost thirty years, these are usually lies – in one case, accusing Republicans they’d endorsed (inevitably in safe districts) who’s been 100% pro-2nd Amendment with ‘betrayal’.  Because “betrayal” is a nice inflammatory take that promotes hysterical fundraising. 
3. For whatever reason, they are silent about Democrats.  
4. They go back to Iowa and spend the money.  

“Action For Liberty” seems to have a pretty similar business model.  The group is a byproduct of the Tea Party, and started out as a fairly run of the mill conservative group.

But somewhere along the way, it started walking, talking and quacking like Minnesota Gun Rights.  

The problem with the MNGOP, according to A4L, isn’t losing elections – it was “RINOs”.   A Republican In Name Only – the definition of which is any Republican, elected, appointed or hired, who’s ever had to try to get anything done with Democrats.  

Remember the old Reagan saying – someone who agrees with you 70% isn’t your 30% enemy?  To A4L, being a 90% friend makes you a 100% enemy. 

Because “betrayal” sells. 

This has been the top story in intraparty politics this past few weeks.  The last MNGOP State Central meeting elected a slate of leadership that are, if not A4L sympathizers, at least very amenable to rapprochement.  (I just used a French word.  Maybe that makes me a RINO?)

Case in point:  over the past few weeks, A4L has been attacking Republicans for voting for the Health and Human Services Omnibus bill, which includes a contribution to Medicaid, which pays for abortions.  Abortion is bad. 

Stipulated in advance – Omnibus bills need to be banned.   If we ever get a GOP trifecta, in fact, we need to demand it.

But that’s life.  Omnibus bills are inevitably s**t sandwiches, full of “poison pills” to be lorded over the other party in the next election. 

But in the case of the HHS omnibus bill, the problem would be the same if it were a clean single-subject bill;  court decisions hamstring the state; the Medicaid money has to pay for abortions.  States have no say in the matters. 

But Action For Liberty knows as well as you do that that’s a pretty abstruse fact, and not hard at all to spin as “BETRAYAL!”. 

And so we’ve been feted (there’s another French word.  Maybe I’m turning into David French?) with the absurdity of A4L calling solid conservatives like Mary Franson, Walter Hudson, Jim Nash and Elliot Engen “RINOs”.  

And I’m gonna guess they’re going to call Minnesota Citizens Concerned for Life (MCCL) “PLINOs” after this broadside:

I try to be “Switzerland” when it comes to intra-party politics – but if someone can make a case that Action For Liberty doesn’t run off of monetizing cynicism and ignorance, I’m doing to take some convincing.

Have your people call my people. 

Suddenly, the DFL is stoked.  Nikki the Ninja is no longer the juiciest (alleged) crime story in the MN State Senate. 

For now, anyway.  Sen. Justin Eichhorn got arrested for soliciting a “16 year old girl” who turned out to be a police decoy.  

The Bloomington Police Department said Eichorn, 40, of Grand Rapids, solicited sex from a detective posing as a 17-year-old girl online. Eichorn and the detective arranged to meet near the 8300 block of Normandale Boulevard.

Eichorn was seen arriving in his pickup truck at the rendezvous point and was taken into custody just after 5:45 p.m., police said.

As of this publishing, Eichorn remained in the Bloomington Police Department’s custody awaiting transfer to the Hennepin County Jail. Formal charges have yet to be filed.

The DFL…well, they tried to have a field day with it. It didn’t end well:

So let’s recap: Republicans immediately demand their reprobate’s resignation. The DFL has been stalling on any meaningful action on Nicole “Nikki the Ninja” Mitchell for almost a year, now.

Which isn’t stopping them from try to deflect:

The DFLers are using this to deflect from their hypocrisy on Nikki the Ninja. The Repubulicans were clear, then and now: both both need to go. Stat.

KARE’s Jana Shortal, whose prospects of that MSNBC gig seems to be shrinking by the day, sounded off:

So apparently Democrats are going to take a break from burning Teslas to tell us “there’s no such thing as Trump Derangement”.  

Or maybe not:

Oh, DFL…

If you live in House District 40B – northern Roseville and southern Shoreview – and you’ve seen enough of how the DFL acts when it’s got all the power it wants, get out and vote for Paul Wikstrom today. 

Drag your friends and family out to do it too. 

Got kids who live there?  They owe you.  Twist that arm.

Elderly relatives?   Get them to the polls.  

Wikstrom has raised more money in this race than some CD4 Congressional candidates have in recent races – so there’s support and interest.  This is at least in the running to be not a DFL walkover.  

Destroy the trifecta!

What’s the saying?  Oh, yeah.

Yes, we can.

(If “we” live in 40B). 

Melissa Hortman folded her hand yesterday, and said the House DFL would come back to work.   Lisa Demuth is the Speaker, and the GOP controls the committees, at least until after the 40B Special on March 11. 

There are a few Republicans – largely from the crowd that thinks “Minnesota Gun Rights” is an actual gun rights group in Minnesota – who think it was a defeat for the GOP. 

Let’s let a DFLer address that:

For someone who’s gotten a little fatalistic about Minnesota Republicans screwing every pooch that can be screwed, it was a very good day.   This is not your fathers House GOP Caucus. 

More please.

If you live in Senate District 60 – the U of M, Dinkytown, Marcy Holmes – get out and vote for Abigail Wolters for the MN Senate.

If you know someone who lives in the district and is sick and tired of DFL lawnessness, or especially of U of M student who’s looking at the life the DFL has mapped out for them – being a purposeless unit of consumption – then get them to get out and vote for Abby. 

This’d be a great week to shock the world.

So, last week was a big week. A good one, by Minnesota Republican standards. For the DFL, less so.

Both chambers of of the Minnesota legislature flipped to “tied” last week – one by via human tragedy, and one by hubris and stupidity.

Let’s talk stupidity and hubris first.

The House

As we noted last week, the election in House District 40B got thrown out by a Ramco Judge – DFLer Julian Castro – because the DFL winner, Curtis Johnson, hadn’t lived in the district the required six months.

Naturally, it took his GOP opponent and his supporters to dig up the information that went to trial – God knows the media isn’t going to do it. But the locals did prevail. Johnson is out.

Which, including the still-disputed 54A race, leaves the GOP one vote ahead as the session looms. Which means a GOP speaker of the House – a much better speedbump on DFL control than the “shared power” arrangement people were talking about last week.

Or it will, if the DFL can’t figure out a way to juke the rules in their favor. Which is exactly what they’re going to try to do.

On Friday, Johnson A DFL state representative-elect said Friday he will not appeal a judge’s ruling that he is ineligible to hold the office because he did not meet residency requirements for the district.

On Friday, Johnson announced he was opening the way to a special election to fill the 40B seat by “resigning“:

A DFL state representative-elect said Friday he will not appeal a judge’s ruling that he is ineligible to hold the office because he did not meet residency requirements for the district.

In a letter to Gov. Tim Walz, Curtis Johnson said he has “made the difficult decision not to accept my seat in the Minnesota House of Representatives and to resign from the Office of State Representative effective immediately and irrevocably.”

Which is great – except the couldn’t resign. He was never in the office – it’s still Becker-Finn’s seat, and Johnson’s election was voided by the court.

Pretty Vacant

And the word “vacancy” has a statutory definition:

Which didn’t stop Governor Walz from declaring a special election on January 24.

Now, I’m no lawyer, but Johnson’s not the incumbent – Becker-Finn is.

So trying to jam down a special election is against the law:

But there is no vacancy, so (as I, and I suspect Mr. Hansen, and presumptive-Speaker Demuth) see it), the governor doesn’t get to call the special election until 22 days after Johnson isn’t sworn in, on January 14, the first day of session.

So with the House tied at 67-67 after the election, and the 54A seat in Shakopee still in court, this gives the GOP a 67-66 lead in the House, and the potential of picking up the 54A (and refusing to seat Brad Tabke until the issue is resolved in court).

I say it’s time for some intransigence.

Let’s talk about the Senate later today. 

Governor Walz came back to Minnesota late last week. 

And at a rally – is that the right word? – in Eagan, he started the process of…

Speaking for myself?

Govenor, you called me and half this state “Nazis”. 

You will never be my “neighbor”.  There will be no forgiveness.

More generally?  Call me cynical, but no, he’s not extending an olve branch. He’s rebooting – from two years of absolute power (“When you have political capital, you use it!” was his line when the trifecta started its ravages) to trying to set the stage for having to convince Repblicans to work with him.

And, if I may be even more cynical, to set himself up as the plucky, peace-seeking victim when they shoot down his agenda in total.

And just to be clear – the MN GOP had better shoot down the Walz/DFL agenda like Capone’s guys bouncing the rubble of Bugsy Moran’s crew at the Valentine’s Day Massacre.  We’ve waited a long time to be shown an alternative.  It’s time. 

Elliot Engen is a young hotshot on the MNGOP bench. He just won his second term representing HD36A.

It wasn’t long ago that the DFL was trying to get a jump start on his political obituary:

He deleted the tweet – like, in the last hour or so – but the internet never sleeps:f

Tuesday’s results:

• Engen:  54.07%
• Janelle Calhoun (shouldn’t that be Janelle Mka Ska?):  45.83%

I don’t get to spike a lot of balls, but I’m spiking the ball. 

Gotta confess, I didn’t see this coming:

But knowing some of the people involved, and even some recent history, perhaps I should have expected at least some Somali to take umbrage at the sense of entitlement the DFL feels re their votes.

Of course, I’d have to wonder if this endorsement happened after the vast majority of the local Somali population voted early.

Still – if the 5th CD and Minneapolis GOPs can keep this dynamic going – and I have confidence that they can – this could make the municipal elections next year a lot more interesting.

If the Harris/Walz ticket wins the presidential race, taht means Minnesota will be left with Peggy Flanagan as governor.  Not only is Flanagan a died-in-the-wood radical, she is one of the least likeable people in Minnesota politics (or was, until we met the DFL’s legislative class of 2023).

And if Trump wins, Walz will return to Minnesota most likely weakened after running into a media that asks him questions more probing than “Pronto Pups vs. Corn Dogs – what’s your take?” for the first time in his political career. 

This is an opportunity.

Now, some will say “The MNGOP will just screw it up”.

Let’s talk about that. 

Let’s start off with two points:

1. MNGOP has MUCH less power over who runs for office and what they say than the MNDFL does.
2. Unlike the MNDFL, the MNGOP is controlled by activists (defined as “people who show up, who support candidate, and who try to convince people to vote along with them”). But it takes something MN Republicans are bad at; patience and sustained effort. Let’s talk about both.

The Car, Not The Driver

Like a lot of people who rail on about politics without having been all that involved, I used to think the MNGOP drives policy.

A very smart person who worked at the MNGOP grabbed me and hauled me off to lunch and explained things to me.  Turns out…

…It doesn’t.

Campaigns, candidates and (eventually) elected representatives do.

So when people say “The MNGOP needs to DO something”? Their job is to support candidates who will…DO something. But you need the candidates.

If GOP activists bubbled up from the districts and endorsed 201 Michelle Bensons, Peg Scotts, Harry Niskas, Walter Hudsons, Mary Fransons and Jim Nashes, we’d be a red state and the MNGOP would reflect that will. If they kept that momentum doing and endorsed people of that caliber for govenor, the party would reflect that will – eventually.  We’ll come back to that.

Point being, the party isn’t a policy-driving organization.  Oh, it keeps the party’s platform – which is an enormous, unenforceable and occasionally self-contradictory agglommeration of wishes.  And it runs the process by which those caucus, BPOU and district endorsements waft up to the state level. 

But it doesn’t set policy.

If the activists endorse a majority of candidates who believe that the state anthem should be “Friends in Low Places”, and those candidates win elections, and the activists who nominated them and worked toward their elections stay active in the party and win seats in the State Central, then at some point in the future the policy of the MNGOP will be to enshrine that Garth Brooks song. 

Provided they show up and win.

The Arena

But the party reflects what the activists who show up, and KEEP showing up, bring to the table.

And the activists control how the party works – via various BPOU, District and eventually State Central Committees.

Thing is, it takes a couple of years of concerted effort to take State Central. As in, *sustained* effort.

Remember the Ron Paul crowd? They came,they actually took over the 2012 convention, they sent their delegates to Tampa…

…and then largely left.  A few of them stuck with the party and the process. 

Before them – remember the Tea Party? They came, they *slaughtered* the DFL in 2010 – and they left (or got hijacked by the “confrontation is BETTER than winning!” crowd).

In other words the party is controlled, not by the people who showed up at caucuses last February, but by the people who showed up the previous 2-5 caucuses, and kept showing up.

That is very unlike the DFL, btw. The GOP honors the decisions of the party’s activists, even when they make clearly doomed endorsements.

In contrast, the last activist-endorsed DFL governor candidate (for an open seat) was Mike Hatch. In every open seat election since then, the DFL party leadership has stepped in to assert its will – in 2010 pushing Mark Dayton past Margaret Anderson-Kelliher in the primaries, and in 2018 dragging Tim Walz over the finish line against Erin Murphy and Erin Maye Quade. 

For better or worse, the GOP goes with its activists.

Answers?

The answers are simple, but not easy or glamorous:

• Show up
• Endrose solid candidates for everything from school board to legislature to Governor and Senator
• Suipport them – with caucus time, money, work (!), and convincing neighbors. 
• Keep doing ti – even if you lose some races. 2022 (and, let’s be honest, every statewide race since 2008) was a heartbreaker.  So suck it up. 

The Minnesota GOP reflects the will of those who show up and keep showing up”. It sounds like a platitude.

It’s not – for better or worse. It’s a challenge, and sometimes it feels like a curse.   Democracy is so much easier when someone gives it to you, isn’t it?

Knock off the despair. If the Minneapolis City GOP can go out and scrap it out for every seat, people in Andover and Apple Valley can show up and win your purple ‘burbs.

Heather “Lawnmower Barbie” Edelson, beat Marisa Simonetti, 54-45.

In other words: A woman with near 100% name recognition, especially among people who come out for special elections, beat someone nobody had heard of three weeks before the election.

By nine points.

In a district Keith Ellison won by 20, and Governor Klink by 30:

There’ll be another round in November.

While the district is a little less “blue” than most of Hennepin County, this can’t be great news for the DFL headed into the fall

Trump is going to speak at the Lincoln/Reagan dinner – one of the MNGOP’s big annual fundraisers.

The DFL thinks they’re onto something.

It’s so cute that the DFL thinks that most Trump voters don’t know this – I know many who stopped holding their noses and switched to full-face respirators to vote for him.

But we – especially if “we” are working class Minnesotans whose paychecks are 20% smaller than they were five years ago, and whose food budgets have gone up by half – might be willing to give it another shot at this rate.

Why do Democrats have such problems with cognitive dissonance?

A new KSTP/SUSA polls says Minnesota voters aren’t enthralled with “the Trifecta“:

When likely voters were asked if they’re “generally more inclined to vote” for a Republican, Democrat or candidate from another party, 45% said they prefer Republicans, 44% prefer Democrats, 8% were undecided and 3% preferred another party.

Minnesota Republicans are taking encouragement from this – as they should.

The same poll shows Trump and the First Potato in a dead heat:

According to our latest exclusive KSTP/SurveyUSA poll of Minnesota voters, Biden leads Trump 44% to 42%, with 11% saying they’ll vote for another candidate and 4% undecided. The poll has a credibility interval, similar to margin of error, of ±4.9%

“When you have a 2-point race in a presidential year, you’ve got a competitive state,” Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier said. “One that both campaigns will probably pay attention to.”

I’d urge a little caution along with the exuberance:

• See that11% “Other Candidate” and 4% in the Presidential poll (and 11% between “Other” and “Undecided” in the House race)? I’m going to guess that, among the Legal Pot and Libertarian and Ventura Party dross, that involves a lot of “Uncommitted” DFLers. Democrat intraparty squabbling is like a couple of bull hogs fighting for the best patch of mud – but being essentially herd animals, Democrat voters almost always “come home”.
• The numbers in the House poll refer to generic Republicans versus generic Democrats. It’s contingent on coming up with candidates who are better than generic. There is a strong undercurrent in the MNGOP of the same crowd that made Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Tayor Green into powerbrokers. Someone needs to teach some Minnesota GOP voters what legislatures are for. On the other hand, it shows that for exceptional candidates – people cut from the same cloth as Harry Niska, Eric Lucero, Pam Scott, Walter Hudson and Mary Franson – there is immense opportunity.
• The Conventional Wisdom in 2016, when Trump came without two points of toppling Hillary!, was that Trump didn’t “almost win”; Hillary!, being a terrible candidate, almost lost. We’ll see if Trump has increased his cachet, but it’s entirely possible the First Potato is a worse candidate than Hillary! was.

Still, two years into the “trifecta”, we’ve had worse news.

Let’s try not to screw this pooch, MNGOP.

Anna Matthews joined me to talk about Cynthia Lonnquist’s race to replace Ruth Richardson in MN HD 52B.

Interested in helping out? Write “info@mngop.com”, or join them Sunday morning at 10AM at the McDonald’s at Dodd and Crosstown.

Today’s song list.

To: MNGOP SCC Delegates
From: Mitch Berg, Irascible Peasant
Re: On Your Predilection For Running Headfirst Into Walls And Kicking Yourself Repeatedly In The Groin

Esteemed Colleagues,

I got your letter the other day, about the intent to try to toss state party chairman Hann at the next State Central meeting.

I know who’s driving this, and I suspect I know why.

I’ve also seen no evidence that there’s any more of a “plan” to this than there was to Matt Gaetz’s defenestration of Kevin McCarthy.

Seriously – show me the alternative you provide. And I don’t mean vague blandishments or the usual impotent tough talk.

You want to take a run at Hann? Come on my show on Saturday. Let’s talk.

There will be questions. Serious ones.

I’d like to the delegates to know if there’s a “there”, there, or if this is just another round of ritualized head-into-sidewalk smashing.

Mike Casey is running for the GOP nomination in CD4.

Jim Schulz, former MN Attorney General candidate, is with the Minnesota Private Business Council.

And here’s today’s music list:

On Saturday, I had a chat with Shawn Holster about the new, vastly streamlined Minneapolis GOP. It’s a reform that makes sense – going from four Senate district and 13 ward committees to a single city organization. No more wondering what side of what arbitrary dividing line you live on, no more wondering if you went to the right meeting, no more wasted effort among a dozen sub-units, more focus on what matters- it’s freaking brilliant, and Saint Paul should do the same.

It starts at the :33 mark:

In the meantime, as I was talking with Shawn, this was the MInneapolis Ward 10 convention:

Ken Martin – who runs the party of Bill “Guillotine Republicans!” Davis, of Matt “He Who Flexes on Reporters who are 30 years older than him” Roznowski, of Leigh “Thrilla On the House Floor” Finke, whose party has presided over probably half a dozen cycles of Minneapolis district conventions breaking down into riots…

…is making vigorous noises about violbla beingbla bla unacceptibiblablabla.

It’s finally Election Day and we can all breathe easier now that we won’t have to see Angie Craig’s alternating rictus grin/contorted face of rage multiple times a day on television, social media and other media. But will we see Craig going forward? While I sincerely hope not, it’s difficult to know. So let’s hazard a few guesses on how it will play out today and in the coming days.

Governor: Tim Walz deserves to be tossed out on his well-padded posterior, but I suspect he and Peggy Flanagan will survive. Scott Jensen ran a decent campaign but it’s difficult to overcome all paid advertising from Alida Messinger and the free advertising from the Esme Murphys of the local media.

Secretary of State: Steve Simon is a smooth operator and Kim Crockett is not. Should those traits matter? No, but they do. Simon wins.

Attorney General: We have had the DFL Lucys pull this football away before. Recent polling suggests Keith Ellison is in trouble and that Jim Schultz is leading. Do you believe it? I don’t, but I sincerely hope I’m wrong.

Auditor: If the Republicans are allowed to win a statewide office, it will likely be this one. Republican Ryan Wilson has run a fine campaign and you can’t spell blah without DFLer Julie Blaha. The auditor has limited power but a committed auditor can at least turn over a few rocks the DFL would prefer to keep stationary. Wilson wins.

CD-2: While there are 8 congressional districts in Minnesota, apparently only the 2nd is being contested this year. We’ve seen dozens, maybe hundreds of ads featuring the odious incumbent, Angie Craig, and her rival Tyler Kistner. It’s been a nasty race and Craig has serious money behind her. She’s vulnerable because of redistricting, but it’s not clear to me that Kistner has made the sale. A left wing veteran’s group has also run some stolen valor ads in the final weekend that may affect the outcome; I have not been able to determine if their claims are accurate, but if Kistner loses, that last-minute attack might make the difference. As an aside, I really wish we’d seen Republicans make more of an effort in CD-3, where it’s been entirely too easy for Dean Phillips.

Elsewhere: Control of the House and Senate are at stake and the deep unpopularity of the Democrats will almost certainly mean Congress will be in Republican hands in 2023. A few guesses on races in other states:

Wisconsin: while the population and demographics of Wisconsin are similar to Minnesota, Wisconsin is not a blue state. Milwaukee and Madison are lefty enclaves, but their overall population is less than 40% of the total population, while the Twin Cities are about 60% of the total population here. As a result, it is easier for Republicans to win. Ron Johnson, the incumbent Republican senator, is a bit on the crusty side, but he’s a smart, effective campaigner and looks to be a good bet to win against his opponent, Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes, a gladhander in the Hakeem Jeffries/Barack Obama style, but less effective. In the governor’s race, Republican challenger Tim Michels is also a bit crusty, but the fluke incumbent governor, Democrat Tony Evers, is an ineffective milquetoast. Look for the Republicans to win both. (more…)