Pawlenty, Nationwide

Drudge, early this morning, reflected the first question of a fair chunk of whatever portion of the landed punditry follows these sorts of things, with a front-page photo of TPaw with the headline “CAN THIS MAN CONQUER OBAMA?”

The Strib noticed, and elaborates on the story:

Gov. Tim Pawlenty filed paperwork today with federal regulators to form the Freedom First PAC, a national fundraising committee he can use to aid GOP candidates in upcoming elections.

Simultaneously, he was featured — with a photo — at the top of the Drudge Report this morning with a headline asking, “CAN THIS MAN CONQUER OBAMA?”

The headline linked to a Politico.com story that reported Pawlenty “has been quietly assembling the blueprint of a presidential campaign even as he has stayed “under the radar of D.C.’s political community”

Now, Barack Obama is shaping up to be a pretty dismal president so far; many of us who on January 21 were resigned to eight years in the wilderness are making mental notes not to throw out the drape measurements, just in case. 

But can TPaw do it?

Let’s go over the strengths and weaknesses of a Pawlenty bid for the White House:

Weakness:  He’s from Minnesota.  Minnesota’s salad days as an incubator of exciting politicians and interesting races are long behind it.  Jesse Ventura, by the way, was more a “freak show” than “evidence of a vibrant culture”.  Minnesota’s only real significance is its ten electoral votes; not chump change, not a kingmaker.

Strength: On the other hand, TPaw has been working diligently on raising that profile.  If slow and steady wins the race, TPaw has got the first part down.

Weakness:  His profile is very low among the conservative base.  Pawlenty has a reputation, not so much as a “moderate” as as a “pragmatist”; he’s no movement conservative.  His showing at the last CPAC – about 2% – showed that he’s not especially well-exposed to the conservative base.  Some Minnesota conservatives call him (wrongly) a RINO.

Strength: But he’s right on the “conservative” issues that do matter to people outside the base – especially in a season where independents are getting serious buyer’s remorse over the neosocialist baggage that came with all the Hope and Change (TM).  His Thermopylae-esque stand against a two-chamber press (the DFL, Minnesota’s Democrats, control the Senate and have a prohibitive supermajority in the House) on two successive state budgets, battling back against a spending-crazy DFL phalanx, should be getting conservatives’ attention nationwide.  While TPaw does run to the center on the occasional issue – global warming, ethanol subsidies – these are “B” and “C” list issues, “nice to haves” compared to the bread-and-butter pocketbook issues. 

A story, for those of you who don’t follow Minnesota GOP trivia: when Pawlenty sought the nomination to run for governor, he faced a very stern challenge from conservative businessman Brian Sullivan, who ran well to Pawlenty’s right.  The state convention in 2002 came down to many, many ballots – and was finally clinched when Pawlenty broke down and took the Taxpayers’ League’s “No New Taxes” pledge.  And for the past six years, come hell or high water, he has held to that pledge, at fearsome political risk, and against the kind of pressure that would have made a real RINO buckle and scamper for cover.

Weakness:  I don’t know that the American conservative “base” knows the above.  They should.  Of course, the national media will follow the lead of the Twin Cities’ media to do their best to obscure this from the legions of moderates and independents who are bailing on the Democrats today.

Strength: Pawlenty is, in theory, the kind of “conservative” who should be able to reach out successfully to independents.  For all the Minnesota left’s incessant whining, he’s not a dogmatic conservative.  He’s focused less on conservative dogma, and more on results in his six years.  His results, unless you’re employed by or addicted to the state bureaucracy, are excellent.  If the American independent street knew the truth about Pawlenty – who’s branded his politics “Sam’s Club Republican” – they’d see there’s a lot to appreciate.

Weakness:  Remember the last time we had a Republican that the media anointed as the “Republican who can reach out to Democrats?”  Remember when Democrats would intone with straight faces that “McCain is the one Republican I’d ever consider voting for?”  Of course, once McCain became a threat, that all changed; the knives came out; the media and left (pardon the redundancy) began finding a “radical conservative” John McCain (whose American Conservative Union lifetime rating is a point to the right of Jim Ramstad, and down there with Chuck Hagel) that had eluded even us on the center right for his entire career. 

Strength: The media matters less than it used to.  Not enough less, but we’re getting there.

Weakness:  Of course, the main vehicle for the weakening and outflanking of the mainstream media – the conservative and center-right alternative media – is an area where Pawlenty has traditionally gone slower than a lot of other candidates.  Along with the Minnesota GOP as a whole, Pawlenty’s been very much a traditionalist in dealing with both the major media (who will eventually turn on him) and the conservative alternative media, talk radio and the blogs. 

Strength: The Minnesota GOP shows signs of being able to change that.  We’ll see if they do, and if TPaw follows suit.

Weakness:  He’s chasing some powerful frontrunners; Palin, Romney and Huckabee have big name recognition and established machines.

Strength: I’m not sure that a machine established in 2008 is all that much to brag about anymore.  To be sure… 

Weakness:  …Pawlenty lacks the name recognition of a Sarah Palin or a Mitt Romney.  But…

Strength: …he’s got some strengths, too.  Since about 2001, I’ve called Pawlenty “the best stump speaker in Minnesota politics today” – and although Rep. Tom Emmer may have taken that title in-state, Pawlenty has formidable stage presence.  He’s much more polished onstage than Sarah Palin – but can fairly be said to match her folksy bonhomie; he plays the “Son of a meat-packer” card with consistency but grace.  As important, he exudes the same sense of gravitas and competency that Romney does – he has paid his dues with interest – without sounding like a CEO in the process. 

I’m not saying Tim Pawlenty is the next “Great Communicator”.  I am saying that enough raw material is there that you can’t rule it out out of hand.

It’s going to be a fun couple of years!

23 thoughts on “Pawlenty, Nationwide

  1. Pingback: The Greenroom » Forum Archive » Pawlenty - He’s Nationwide

  2. Excellent summation, Mitch. One factor that may be beyond T-Paw’s control, but will matter quite a lot, is whether or not the Republicans hold the governor’s chair in 2010 without him. Rightly or wrongly, that election will be a referendum on T-Paw’s tenure and if the Party can’t hold serve, it will seriously undercut Pawlenty’s record since it will appear that his home state has rejected his considerable legacy.

    The good news? I don’t see a potential DFL challenger out there who isn’t already tainted in some significant way. But the Republicans need to choose their candidate carefully. Very carefully.

  3. Mitch, you missed one weakness. The most glaring and the most damaging one – TPaw is a greenie. He is firmly in the pocket of the ethanol lobby and so far had shown no indication he can be pragmatic on the energy front. To me, this is a huge barrier to be taken seriously on the national stage by the conservative base.

  4. JPA,

    I didn’t miss it. I noted it directly.

    I also noted that for people who aren’t movement conservatives (unlike, say, both of us) neither is an A-list issue.

    Presuming you can hypothetically only have one, what do you take – no new taxes, or non-greeniness?

  5. At this point Pawlenty is my first choice among the other likely candidates for all of the reasons Mitch listed. My only reservation about Pawlenty is his attempt to get a tax increase on tobacco taxes done as a “health impact fee.” It isn’t that I care whether or how much tobacco is taxed but that he blurred the line between a tax increase and a user fee in order to get around his no new taxes pledge. Considering how Obama has been trying to do the same thing with his pledge not to raise ANY taxes (not just income taxes) on anyone making under $250,000, my concern is that nominating Pawlenty will in effect be conceding what I think will be a very damning criticism of Obama in 2012.

  6. Yea, directly in the Strength section – pffft! Problem is, greeniness is definitely an A issue because it comes with a huge tax burden. Cap and Trade anyone?

  7. JPA,

    So there’s a contradiction. Pawlenty is a “no new taxes” guy, but he’s paid lip service to green (high tax) causes.

    Question: How much (in terms of new taxes, as in “taxes that didn’t exist when Pawlenty took office”) has Pawlenty’s green affectation cost you, the MN taxpayer?

    Remember – talk is cheap. And to the best of my knowledge, that’s all Pawlenty has done on all the green nonsense.

    As opposed to, y’know, making the DFL House and Senate cauci tuck their tails between their legs and whine like whipped dogs.

    See why I’m not calling it a big weakness?

  8. I take it that it was AC who Mitch should have thought of here.

    http://www.shotinthedark.info/wp/?p=5488

    I see Pawlenty as probably a good “adult” to fill the Presidency after the current child leaves. I don’t like his ethanol stand, but I do like his stand towards the DFL regarding taxes, especially his pointed comments that the time to discuss the budget is during the ordinary session of the legislature, not at special, politically motivated meetings.

  9. Mitch, wouldn’t you agree that Minnesota’s 10 EVs mean more for a Republican than a Democrats. Pawlenty is perhaps the only Republican out there who can carry the state. 10 votes is 10 votes, but even Reagan couldn’t win here.

    Wintson. I voted for Pawlenty in 02, but not 06 because of the “fee”. He’s since earned his way back into my good graces.

    JPA – the ethanol lobby is not a green one. It’s an agricultural lobby. Minnesota has almost zero in the way of oil, coal, and natural gas – therefore Pawenties never really a political base demanding those things.

    Pawlenty’s got a year or more two build up his stock in the party. Being a distant third won’t cut it when the primaries start, he needs to win over the current Huckabee and Romney Supports.

  10. Pawlenty is on record as Green Energy advocate. His ethanol mandate already cost taxpayers plenty in poor gas mileage and premature ware and tear on their vehicles. Never mind the added food costs. And don’t forget Pawlenty is a huge advocate of windmill farms – did he not pass a requirement that certain percentage of MN energy has to come from “green” resources? I wonder who’s gonna pick up tab for that? MN taxpayer, no?

  11. I don’t like a lot of his green ‘talk’, but most of his green “walk” I have witnessed is just good energy conservation stuff, and it saves money as well as the planet. 😉

  12. Yes, we know you aren’t some dumb ass liberal, Troy. 8)

    Almost 20 years ago I developed a recycling program for the Stroh Brewery; it saved them LOTS of $$$$$$!!!!

  13. Minnesota always had a tension between Metro and Outstate. Metro is W-2 wage earners, outstate is still largely farmers. Metro tends Democrat. Outstate tends Republican.

    Pawlenty’s outstate base is Republican Farmers who grow corn to sell to the ethanol plants. If he didn’t play to the portion of his base that grows the state’s largest cash crop, he’d lose that base in a heartbeat. Cut him some slack – when he gets on the national stage, rural Minnesota issues will become less crucial to his success. He can “moderate” his position.

    In my opinion, the three main indicators of Conservatism are taxes, guns and abortion. Tell me your position on them, and I am confident I can predict your position on nearly everything else. On the three big ones, Pawlenty does better than most politicians. I can live with 90% of a loaf.

    Palin-Pawlenty. Pawlenty-Palin. Either ticket would be fine with me.

    .

  14. Thinking more about the Palin-Pawlenty ticket; maybe not.

    Angry Clown would die laughing if the Party of Larry Craig set up a presidential ticket nicknamed “P-P.”

    And I’d hate to be responsible for that.

    .

  15. Mitch, we could do worse than TPaw. However, he has done more than lip service to the greenies. He isn’t as radical as Al Gore but his positions have been damaging. I think you underestimate how bad those positions will be to the base especially if Cap and Tax gets passed.

  16. Yes, please don’t forget Jindal. Awesome public speaker, that guy.

    Down with volcano monitoring!

  17. Awesome public speaker, that guy.

    Yeah, that was bad.

    Of course, if the cosmos rewarded people based on speaker points, Algore would be a Nashville city councilman, and not a powerful one.

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