Polls on McCain v. Obama have swung in favor of the man that can’t email, not because he’s too old but because of injuries sustained during the time he became a national hero in his service to our country – but once again, I digress.

For the time being this is encouraging for supporters of McCain/Palin, especially given the source of these polls and their dubious design.

When it comes down to pulling the lever however, even exit polls can be inaccurate as the Bush/Kerry race revealed, and the current McCain/Obama race still hinges on whether enough American’s truly are post-racism and whether newly-minted young liberals will get off their second-hand Lazy Boy’s and actually vote.

When people put their money where their vote is however, the results are intriguing – and amazingly accurate. Using that measure, McCain is up over the 50% mark.

Intrade is not a poll, it’s a free market wherein people place bets on the outcome of future events by buying or selling “contracts.” The more likely the market thinks–at the moment–that the event is to happen, the higher the price of a contract.

…no one is going to lie when they bet on Intrade. And having to put up real money, like the prospect of being hanged, concentrates minds wonderfully.

Many believe that traders simply reflect conventional wisdom and lack predictive value while at the same time consider them to be more accurate than polls. The truth is somewhere in between but consider this…

In 2004, Intrade correctly predicted the outcome of the presidential election in every single state, even those the pollsters thought too close to call.

Intrade is tracked on Real Clear Politics and may just be another source of data on the leanings of voters if not a predictor. Either way, it bodes well for McCain right now.

So it is interesting that while Obama has been consistently in the 59-61 range (peaking in mid-July, just before his foreign trip, at about 67) ever since the primary season ended in June, he has suddenly fallen to 48.1 as of this morning. In other words, while 60 percent of the traders thought Obama would win two weeks ago, now only 48 percent do.

In political discussions of late, I have maintained that the only way Obama is going to turn things around is to dump Biden, admit his weakness, and put Hillary on the ticket. Do you want to win or not?

Sure enough, although trading is thin, Intrade is showing a rising market value on this event as well although as of this moment there is not enough volume on Hillary Clinton to be on Democratic ticket on Election Day to depict a trend.

Greed is Right. Greed Works. Greed clarifies, cuts through..