Coin Toss?
By Mitch Berg
Depending on who you ask, the upcoming elections are going to shake out one of two ways:
- Democrats, riding a wave of Bush-weariness and hope for audacity, are going to massacre Republicans
- Shocked by Democrat tax and spending proposals, voters will opt for Republicans.
“What election are you talking about?” you might ask. And the response is “yes”.
I’ve seen the numbers that show Barack Obama trouncing Mac this November – and seen some other fairly plausible cases pointing toward a potential Mac blowout.
As to Congress – well, OK, the theory breaks down a bit there. This is going to be a bad year on Congress. Indeed, if the Dems come out of this election at anywhere less than 80-20 in the Senate and with less than 340 seats in the House, it’ll be tantamount to a defeat.
But in the Minnesota Legislature? Things are a lot less clear there. The Dems have two years with a crushing majority, and have done a fairly risible job; after two sessions of complete control, all they have to their credit is a huge tax hike, Carol Molnau’s scalp, and not a whole lot more.
Sarah Janecek is breaking down the ten most-in-play races over at Politics in Minnesota – today is the first installment. Check it out.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:23 am
Mitch,
While I agree with the first part, the second paragraph is a bit of hyperbole, don’t you think?
I mean, first, I surely don’t think there aren’t even that many seats up for grabs in the Senate (or actually, I guess if they (the Dems) won 31 of 33 seats- they COULD- do you seriously think that’s the direction?) I think you don’t, there CERTAINLY aren’t that many considered close. In the house, again, there simply aren’t that many seats which are considered ‘in play.’ I think you know it. So characterizing it as a major Democratic defeat is silly – were you merely kidding around?
If you want some good detail on projections, I’d use Blogging Ceasar, he picked the 2000 and 2004 results to an uncanny accuracy.
I think the election will either be a somewhat comfortable Obama win, or a very very close McCain win, and the polls and realistic analysis seem to agree. I don’t see any way, unless Obama sticks his foot so far down his throat his shoe appears in his pants, that there will be a McCain blowout. I also only see the faintest glimmer of an Obama blowout, and it would be as a consequence of previously uninvolved voters becoming involved in states not thought of as ‘in play’.
So – the point – that nearly EVERY state/federal election where it’s at all close comes down to the points you raised, the commentary about what the Democrats have to achieve to avoid ‘defeat’ is a little silly.
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:25 pm
My take on the margin the Dems need is totally hyperbolic and intended to be silly.
If you wanna check back, you’ll note that I got the ’02 goober race pretty dead-on, and was within very few electoral votes of the ’04 results (I got Hawaii wrong, and inverted Minnesota and Iowa.
That, and being two days off on Hussein’s execution, were about the best I’ve managed.
I’ll worry about the next round of predictions later.
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:26 pm
two days off on Hussein’s execution
…predicted back in ’03, I should point out.
July 2nd, 2008 at 2:46 pm
I don’t see any way, unless Obama sticks his foot so far down his throat his shoe appears in his pants, that there will be a McCain blowout.
Since the Messiah just flip-flopped on gay marriage and the Califiornia referendum, I’d say this race is getting closer all the time.
July 2nd, 2008 at 3:30 pm
Obama’s record shows few accomplishments in public office He’s won a national office exactly one time, when the campaign of his GOP opponent disintegrated. BTW, here’s an interesting article on his campaign for the Illinois in 1996: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-070403obama-ballot,0,1843097.story
It’s not a matter of Obama putting his foot in his mouth, it’s a matter of a public examination of his governing philosophy.
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:43 pm
“This is going to be a bad year on Congress. Indeed, if the Dems come out of this election at anywhere less than 80-20 in the Senate and with less than 340 seats in the House, it’ll be tantamount to a defeat.”
Well, given that there are 49 GOP seats in the Senate (21 of which are up for election) and 49 Democratic seats (12 of which are up for election) the Democrats would have to hold on to every seat they have, gain all of the 21 GOP seats up for election, and then somehow win TEN MORE SEATS NOT EVEN UP FOR ELECTION to not suffer “defeat” as newly defined by Mitch.
I think the technical term for this is “fuzzy math.”
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:35 pm
I think the technical term for this is “fuzzy math.”
The term for it is “joke”.
Which is probably why you missed it.