MPR Poll: My Take

It’s just an MPR poll.

But we’re just about two months from the election – so we’re getting to the point that a well-done poll is getting to be worth something.

The poll – which focuses on likely voters, whom conventional wisdom says tend to break for the GOP – shows that the money Dayton’s spent on his soft-money smear campaign so far is just keeping things close in a year that’s going to be terrible for Dems, even in Minnesota.

It also shows that Emmer is losing some of the “base”.  Part of that is that the “base” is so ill-defined; I’m not sure how MPR identified “Republicans”; there’s a big difference between someone whose total identification is having voted for McCain in 2008 versus someone who went to the precinct caucuses.  The former is much more likely to defect, I’m going to guess.  More to the point, a fair chunk of respondents showed some degree of “Pawlenty fatigue” – while they may have voted Republican, these are not the kind of voters who are motivated by principles and policy specifics; they vote on the sort of surface-y things that the “Alliance for a Better Minnesota” campaign has focused on.

And yet for all of Dayton’s family’s millions in the race, it’s deadlocked, in a poll that has trended slightly Dayton so far.

Expect a Star Tribune/Minnesota poll shortly that shows an implausibly-large Dayton lead from a poll that oversamples DFLers by five percent.  The Minnesota Poll largely serves as a morale-building tool for the DFL; they may need one after this MPR poll.

6 thoughts on “MPR Poll: My Take

  1. No offense Mitch, but ya seem to be poll obsessed. I’ve read you on and off for years now and I thought you usually blew this stuff off. Forgive me for stating the obvious, but the only poll that counts is the one on election day. So we need to work hard like we’re 10 points down and never take anything for granted.

  2. Not “obsessed” – I just wrote four quick posts about it rather than one long one.

    I don’t “blow polls off”; I just keep ’em in perspective. Especially the more credible polls with the more credible samples closer to the election.

    And you’re absolutely right about the poll that counts and the need to keep the eyes on the prize til then.

  3. “The Minnesota Poll largely serves as a morale-building tool for the DFL; they may need one after this MPR poll.”

    Maybe the Strib or Dayton Camp will splurge for anti-depressants for their poll readers, at the end of the day I think the Dims will need them. Doubtless their candidate will.

  4. Pingback: Hot Air » Emmer, Dayton tied in new poll

  5. My prediction:
    The next Star Tribune/Minnesota poll will show dayton at least 3 points above the margin of error. The last poll they release before the election will be 7.5+ points above the margin of error.

    The bias of the Star Tribune/Minnesota poll is based on their institutional / conventional wisdom that DemocRats will only come out in large numbers when they feel assured of winning so the purpose of the poll is to assure their captive voting blocks that its ok to vote.

  6. Next time your up in Fargo start listening for Dayton ads. I’m willing to bet those ads will be considerably different from the ads he runs in the Twin Cities Market.

    I noticed that about his Senate campaign while Grouse hunting on Da Range several years ago. You would swear that two different Daytons were running.

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