It’s This Sound That’s Keeping Me Sane

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(Title)

When Someone Asks For A “Realistic Conversation”…

…what they’re really saying is “let’s accept everything I believe as a given, and ignore anything you bring to the table”.

Laura Gilbert’s plea for a “realistic conversation” bout 21st century education (in the MinnPost) is a case study:

Problem #1: America needs post-secondary degrees. According to policymakers, America’s future depends on our ability to increase the percent of Americans with quality post-secondary credentials from the current 39% to 60% in the next decade.

Well, it’s an interesting theory.

Now, seventy years ago a high school diploma was a big deal; during World War II, the average GI had an eighth grade education, and something under a third of Americans went to school through 12th grade.  The percentage of college diplomas was in the single digits; a college sheepskin pretty well meant you were officer or management material.

“But Mitch, the challenge back then – at least the economic one – was different; it was met by brick-and-mortar-and-steel industries that built things.  Our current economy is about information”.

I know –  my day job is in IT.  I get that.

But it’s Economics 101; as the supply of something increases relative to the demand, the value will drop.  In the sixty years after World War II, as it became expected that everyone should get a high school diploma and that college was the preferred post-secondary track, the value of the diploma decreased.  Same with higher education; the BA in English or History or Business Administration  that used to guarantee a job as a teacher or a salesman or a management trainee or an administrator or something, because it was proof that you packed some sort of intellectual gear, now doesn’t guarantee a job selling shoes at Thom McAn, because the supply of English/History/Business degrees is so out of whack with the demand for jobs for generalists.   And the supply of specialists – marketing majors, registered nurses,  aerospace engineers, physical therapists and what have you – is dependant on the need for the specialty.

We’ll come back to that.

Unless we do so, our ability to compete in a global knowledge economy could be severely compromised as early as 2020.  Statistics support this claim.

Ms. Gilbert doesn’t favor us with those statistics, but “Education is good” doesn’t seem like an especially arguable premise.

But what does “Education” mean? Does it mean “learning how to learn, and developing the intellectual,l social, cultural and technical tools to be not only a valuable worker, but a capable member of society?  One who can not only do a job, but contribute to the growth of the society, the culture, the economy and the human race?”  Or does it mean “owner of a suitably punched ticket?”

Because the latter – that’s not education.  That’s schooling.

And confusing the two is the road to ruin.

Remember – seventy years ago a high school dipoloma meant that one had a degree of education, as well as schooling.  And as the supply of diplomas rose, its value dropped – and, in the past thirty years or so, so has its content.  College freshmen today are phenomenally likely to need remedial help in writing, math, and history, as the public school system becomes less an educational system and more of  a rote process.

What Ms. Gilbert seems to be calling for is a similar devaluation of the college degree.

Problem #2: Higher education needs funding. Ironically, historic cuts in state higher ed funding threaten quality and, in some cases, survival of public colleges and universities: 50% of funding cut in Pennsylvania, $500 million in California, $400 million in Minnesota, the list goes on.

Which is – I’ll be charitable – a lazy view. There is phenomenal amount of money in higher education.  Again with the economics 101; as the supply of money available to spend on a fixed amount of a good or service – say, a seat at a college – increases, the price rises.  The price of a college education has zoomed far ahead of inflation – but in perfect sync with the amount of  private and especially public money available to pay for the goods and services.  People are talking about a higher education bubble, as the costs involved in supporting the system far outstrip the system’s ability to pay for it at its current inflated level.

But Ms. Gilbert seems to be pushing the imperative to support the status quo – the devaluation of education by the subsidy of mass schooling, damn the cost both in terms of up-front “tuition” costs as well as the rot that comes from the inflation.

This month, students across America took to the streets to protest higher ed budget cuts. Without state funds, students fear access to education will be limited to the economically-advantaged. Without students, universities fear mass layoffs and an immeasurable loss of talent as professors abandon the classroom. And without graduates, corporations wonder where they will find skilled workers. History and statistics support these claims.

History and statistics support these claims – if they are viewed with blinders to filter out all but the stated issue.

The fact is, if corporations are willing to pay for a skill, someone will step up to supply it.  America has been turning out a dearth of engineers and scientists for decades – so a generation of Indian and Chinese technocrats have made “The Indian Engineer” a new stereotype.  We produce a surfeit of registered nurses – so we are importing RNs from the Philippines and Mexico.  We produce a shortage of science and math teachers – so states are adopting alternative teacher licensure to make use of surplus math and science talent from other fields.

The market finds a way to get what it needs.

And decades of subsidy of education have supplied, to be blunt, a huge surplus of things the market doesn’t need; people with schooling, but not enough education to either get hired as a specialist or to find a niche as a generalist.  Macalester College turns out waves of anthropology majors that will never track a lost tribe; the U of M turns out psychology majors that will spend years working in call centers; Jamestown College in Jamestown, ND gave a BA in English to a guy that had to figure out a way to squeedge that into a gig in IT – something that was no part of his schooling (but was, fortunately, part of his – my – formal and informal education, thank God).

If corporations need educated workers to order to remain competitive in the near future, and if policymakers want more educated workers in order for America to hold (or regain) our global rank as a highly-educated economic force, then cuts to education must be stopped, right? Well, maybe; particularly at proposed reduction levels.

Actually, I’ll propose – modestly, and again – that we not only disconnect the idea of “education” and “schooling”, but the idea that throwing money into the huge education pool does anything but bid up the cost of those goods and services.   After decades of performing brain surgery with hammers, Ms. Gilbert is proposing we use a bigger hammer.

But, maybe there is a third consideration…

Problem #3: There does not appear to be a central conversation about higher education across all parties; an objective, future-looking dialogue that starts with where we are, and moves toward where we need to be. How else can rational decisions be made about where to cut and where to reinvent so we can still achieve the long-term vision for America? Passionate, brilliant, forward-thinking pundits exist in each camp. Imagine if these renaissance thinkers came together to celebrate higher education’s remarkable past while designing and championing the future.

You want a conversation about higher education?  OK.  Here’s some ideas I want to see at the table:

  1. Stop confusing “improving education” with “counting the number of diplomas issued. Our colleges are cranking out BAs with wild abandon.  They’re just not the BAs that the market needs.   Let market forces decide what kind of “education” people get.  We have more Women’s Studies, psychology, majors than the market can possibly absorb, but it is incredibly difficult to find American tool and die makers, electrical engineers, and – oddly enough – competent English teachers.  And no – I’m not discounting the value of a humanities degree; I’m the English major, remember?  There is a value to pure education for its own sake – but there is little reason to subsidize it just to buff up the nation’s degree count.
  2. Stop confusing “education” with “schooling”.  Thirty years ago, America fretted over “Why Johnny Can’t Read”.  Johnny went to Normandale, is now 45, and he’s a manager at Target, and his kids are thinking about applying to get into Metro State, and they don’t know what the Bill of Rights or a dangling participle or molecular valences are, because their public high schools are so dumbed down that there was never any reason to know any of those things. Americans have diplomas and degrees coming out their ears; too many of them are still not educated, and given the state of our public education system, it’s only going to get worse.
  3. The Planned Economy didn’t work for the USSR; why would education be any different?  Coming up with an artificial output goal for, say, the number of degrees – call it a “Five Year Plan”, maybe – makes no more sense than setting arbitrary figures for the amount of cabbage did.
  4. Make the high school diploma worth something again: I advocate voucherizing the whole mess.
  5. Stop stigmatizing the non-college track: I have a BA.  I’m glad I do.  But too often when I talk education, especially with teachers and former professional students, talk of students going to technical or vocational school, or anything but the four-year Bachelor’s Degree track, is treated as a defeat.  It’s just not true; there are plenty of people in this world who are happier fixing things, programming things, buildling things than they’d be sitting at a desk, or in a classroom, or operating in the abstract.  It’s not a defeat; treating it like it is devalues something of great value.
  6. Stop leaving half the students on the table: It’s politically incorrect to say it, but it’s a fact; boys and girls – eventually, men and women – are different.   Girls develop verbal and social skills very early; boys, on the other hand, develop better three-dimensional visualization skills.  Those skills carry forward in life; girls – women – traditionally tend to gravitate toward careers and skills involving communications and socialization (education, social work, even management) while boys stereotypically gravitate toward more tangible things, from auto mechanics to aeronautical engineering.  But over the past thirty years, elementary and secondary education has become feminized, meaning that being a boy has become devalued.  And that devaluation is moving upward into the college years now; soon,l women will make up 60% of all degrees, and it’s not slowing down at all.  Does Ms. Gilbert think culling half the population from “Education” is a good idea?
  7. Let’s learn from the recent past. Government made it a goal to make sure Americans were jammed into houses; the government poured money, in the form of credit, into the housing market.  The market, predictably, responded by taking the money, in the form of higher prices and “values”.  The government kept inflating the bubble until it became unsustainable; it exploded, and we’re still picking shrapnel out of our asses.  Would it have been better to slowly withdraw some of the artificial subsidy and let it deflate slowly?  Check your latest appraisal and get back to me before you demand taxpayers keep pumping money into the education bubble just for the sake of a nebulous goal that, as we discussed above, may not solve the problem it’s supposedly aimed at.

So let’s talk.

They Warned Us…

…that if we voted for John McCain or Tom Emmer that gays would be the victims of discrimination…

…and they were right!

A spokesman for the Rev. Jesse Jackson on Thursday denied a claim from a man who says he was fired from the civil rights leader’s Rainbow PUSH Coalition because he is gay.

Tommy R. Bennett filed a complaint with the city of Chicago’s Commission on Human Relations last year, alleging Jackson fired him unjustly and that the civil rights leader forced him to perform “uncomfortable” tasks, including escorting various women to hotel rooms to meet Jackson for sex.

I have seen this on the ‘entertainment” section of some websites…

Here Comes 2012

Via the Vail Spot the GOP blew it:

Here’s a link that shows just who voted for the “deal” that screws America.  Boehner blew it.  He had a chance to do the right thing…and blinked.  I hope that next year, someone will have the courage to give him a real primary challenge.  Remember, for anyone to challenge an incumbent takes time and money…contribute freely to their opponents with both.  It’s the only way to show the leaders of the Republican Party, that We The People meant what we said at the ballot box last year.

My mantra on most political things is “perfect is the enemy of good enough”.  And I know politics is about compromise – especially when you only control one of the three elements for passing legislation.

But with the future of the world’s financial system at stake, and with the US teetering on the edge of the same cliff Greece and Portugal slid down, it’s time for some rock-ripped principle.

A Time For Tea

The President wants to shave the edges off the ruinous debt by taxing us back to the stone age and turning us into a bigger Portugal.

The Governor wants to tax this state into prosperity, by determining that “the rich” are “anyone who still has money we can seize”.
And all of this after the people spoke last November and resoundingly demanded real hope and change.

It’s high time those who didn’t get the message last time, did.

Saturday is the Twin Cities Tea Party rally at the Capitol.  Check out the itinerary; it’ll be a lot more concise than last years’ Tax Day rally, and a great event.

Yay Team

I got this from a member of the Copeland volunteer team yesterday a current constituent of House District 66A representative John Lesch, reporting about the aftermath of the DFL primary in 66a, which happened two weeks ago and pitted  Lesch against now-Senator-elect Mary Jo McGuire:

Doing the door knocking and yard signs I was aware of where the [DFL] had their signs. [Lesch] had his sign out but when he lost he took his down but didn’t put Mary’s up.

Well, it is the middle of the session and all…

NOTE: This blog doesn’t condone stalking.  The emailer sent in a casual observation gathered while making his campaigning rounds; he or she did not “stake out” Rep. Lesch’s house.

The Wheels Are Off

The President serves up liberal leftovers in an effort the wrest the national fiscal agenda from Congressman Paul Ryan in his campaign speech this week.

Just one thing Mr. President:

According to Internal Revenue Service data, the entire taxable income of everyone earning over $100,000 in 2008 was about $1.582 trillion. Even if all these Americans—most of whom are far from wealthy—were taxed at 100%, it wouldn’t cover Mr. Obama’s deficit for this year.

These are desperate times for a Democratic President that can’t even keep Pennsylvania in the fold, a state where the last Republican who won it was George H. W. Bush.

At least Jimmy Carter had the good sense to turn apologetic, rather than imperious, when his policies tipped over the cliff.

Perhaps it’ll be Obama’s “Oberstar Moment”.

Hm.  Just in time for the Tea Party Tax Day Rally!

Jerk In Chief

When he got invited to the President’s speech yesterday, he thought the President was going to exercise some of that “reaching across the aisle” and “new tone in politics” that the President and his media are always yapping about.  According to NRO’s Andrew Stiles:

Ryan says he was “excited” to received an invitation to the president’s speech, and thought it was a potential “olive branch” to the GOP signaling the start of meaningful negotiations over the deficit.

We all saw how it really worked:

I imagine being forced to sit through a smug lecture explaining how the serious plan you’ve just proposed to save America from a debt crisis is actually, in fact, fundamentally un-American, is not a very pleasant experience.

But it is part of the left’s, and in particular this President’s; our leaders are professors; everyone who agrees with him are the good students; the ones who don’t are the ones on double-dog academic probation.

Noted In Passing

My youngest, Zam, voted for the first time yesterday.  The three of us, Bun and Zam and I went to the polls last night.  As of 6:30, Zam was the only new registrant the district had had all day.

And between us, we accounted for 10% of Greg Copeland’s votes in my precinct…

Chanting Points Memo: How Are They Bogus? Let Us Count The Ways

You remember the old lawyer’s bromide; “if the facts are against you, argue law; if the law is against you, argue facts; if both are against you, argue like hell”.

The DFL is arguing like hell.

The Dayton Administration and the various DFL cauci  have been claiming that the GOP’s budget proposal is a billion dollars short – based on numbers from Minnesota Management and Budget.  As we pointed out the other day, MMB is run by Commissioner Schowalter, who was appointed by Governor Dayton and serves at his discretion.  And its forecasting methods, according to a legislator closely involved in the process, are highly sclerotic, well-calibrated to ring up costs but not to account for savings.

And now – not only is MMB’s leadership not “non-partisan” (as the DFL and its minions continually claim), but either is its data:

The Dayton administration engaged in a new level of hypocrisy today in the ongoing dispute over fiscal notes used to back up spending bills. Today’s example: a fiscal note from Governor Dayton’s Department of Administration regarding the photo ID bill which cited information from Common Cause Minnesota, an overtly partisan liberal group.

The Department of Administration used numbers from a Common Cause Minnesota report to back up its contention that a multi-million dollar ad campaign is necessary to inform the public about a new photo ID requirement at the polls. They also used information from two other outside groups cited in the Common Cause report, the Brennan Center for Justice and the Pew Center on the States.

Which is a little like declaring the National Ketchup Board a “non-partisan” source in a bill aimed at making ketchup a mandatory part of school lunches.

Attention Taxpayers In Minnetonka, Eden Prairie, Woodbury…

…, Elko, Mankato, Moorhead, Albert Lea, Shakopee, Wilmar, Dilworth, Bloomington, Maple Grove, Mound, White Bear Lake, Middle River, Apple Valley, Coates, Salem, East Grand Forks, Rokori, Albertville, Monticello, Cokato, La Crescent, Lake City, Princeton, Shoreview, Shorewood, Meire Grove, and many, many more:

The voters of Saint Paul have spoken; “working for Saint Paul” means making you pay for our city government, as well as yours.  To pony up for our fire and police departments, so that Chris Coleman can budget for electric cars, and the city council can push down the tax base.

No, really.  They say it in as many words; the job of SD66’s Senator is to “work for Saint Paul” by supporting Local Government Aid.

They – 80% of them –  told you “pay up, bitches”.

What are you going to do about that in 2012?

Well, That Stank

A very wise guy who works in politics (and writes occasionally on this blog) once told me one of the key psychological dynamics of working on quixotic, underdog campaigns.

“There comes a moment”, he said, “when you start to think maybe, just maybe, you can pull this off”.  And then reality hits, and you end up with 40, or 30, percent of the vote.

Or less.

I hit that moment, briefly, on Monday night.  We talked with a lot of people – like, every registered Republican in the district.  It seemed like, with the benefit of some low turnout, we could make it happen.

Can’t win ’em all.

Greg Copeland’s Senate candidacy cratered hard yesterday, getting 20% of the vote in the special election to replace Ellen Anderson.

Let’s focus on the good news for a moment.

The Saint Paul GOP – really, much of the Fourth CD, especially the part south of County Road C – has been essentially moribund for at least a decade.  Here in the city, most candidacies, especially for the legislature, but even for Congress – have been paper races; warm bodies on the ballot with no serious effort.  Even the ones that put in the effort – Obi Sium’s race for Congress in 2006 – had no money.  Even the ones that could raise some money had little or no help from the parties – volunteers, phone-calling, database maintenance.  They were on their own.

This campaign was different.  Over 100 volunteers turned out for the race – more than have worked on every other SD66 race combined in the past 10-15 years.  And they knocked on a hell of a lot of doors, and the campaign called every single known Republican in the district at least once.   And the fundraising, while not lavish, was very impressive by the standards we’ve seen.   There were precincts that saw Republican door-knockers (at least on a legislative) for the first time in years.  Maybe a decade.

The hope?  The fact that there is some help available with all the scutwork of the campaign means that, with a little follow-through, we can start recruiting more, better candidates for races all up and down the chain – school boards, city councils, the legislature, Congress, whatever.

And let’s be honest – for all the exultation of the DFLers on the blogs and Twitter, an old-school DFL apparatchik winning in SD66 isn’t man bites dog, or even dog bites man.  It’s dog licks dog.

The bad news?  Whew.  Saint Paul is pretty far gone.  How far gone?  A campaign whose focus was “Do the right thing for Saint Paul – work to keep the money coming from Moorhead and Minnetonka!” got 80% of the vote.

In 2008, around 8,000 people voted for John McCain and Sarah Palin in District 66 – about 30% of the vote. 10,000 voted for Norm Coleman.  In 2010, about 7,000 voted for Tom Emmer.  The Republican Party estimates that there are about 4,000 hard-core Republicans in the district.  Candidates for nationwide and statewide races can frequently pull those kinds of numbers.  The campaign figured, initially, that if they could get 75% of those Republicans out to vote, they’d have won.  And they were right…

…but races for local and legislative offices never quite get to that level.  Copeland got around 1,000 votes.

My theory?  Republicans in Saint Paul are, with a nod to The Boss, like dogs that have been beaten too much.  Most of us know that our votes, in a one-party city like Saint Paul, just haven’t mattered in local or legislative races in decades.  Maybe with statewide or national races – but not in the city.  Not at the capitol.

Before the campaign, I said it’d be a ten year job to rebuild the Fourth CD; to build a human infrastructure of volunteers (and, heaven forbid, paid staff) to do the back-office and street work; to build a fundraising network that can support credible races; most importantly, to build the impression that voting against the suffocating DFL machine has an actual effect.

I said ten years.  I’ll stick by that.

Explains A Lot

Nationwide, about forty percent of convicted prisoners released from jail re-offend within three years.

The bad news?:

Minnesota led all states with a 61 percent recidivism rate.

“It must be the budget cuts!”

Well, no – Minnesota spends at around the middle of the pack (here’s an http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/spe01.pdf on the subject), a:nd recidivism would seem to be almost perfectly evenly divided…

Wyoming and Oregon had the lowest overall recidivism rates for offenders released in 2004, with rates hovering below 25 percent.

Minnesota had the highest — more than 61 percent — while Alaska, California, Illinois, Missouri and Vermont all topped 50 percent.

…between low and  high-tax states.

The recidivism rate in Kansas dropped by more than 22 percent between 1999 and 2004, while it jumped by about 35 percent in South Dakota over the same period.

Neuropathological

Politics may not be rocket science, but apparently it is brain surgery.

Understanding the genesis of political orientation has long been a subject of biological interest, with every few years a new study suggesting our ideological differences aren’t skin-deep, they’re sub-atomic. 

Add to the list the findings of the University College London, which takes the theory of different liberal and conservative genes to another level.  Liberals and conservatives have always thought the other had their brains wired differently and, according to the University, physically speaking they’re right.

But the University’s study is also a case example in the sideshow of the politicization of science – namely, “proving” that conservatives are mentally (or genetically) deficient:

Using data from MRI scans, researchers at the University College London found that self-described liberals have a larger anterior cingulate cortex–a gray matter of the brain associated with understanding complexity. Meanwhile, self-described conservatives are more likely to have a larger amygdala, an almond-shaped area that is associated with fear and anxiety.

Using every inch of my larger amygdala, it’s hard not to notice how many of these studies inevitably lead to a conclusion that liberal physiological differences are viewed as genetically preferable – if not superior.  A similar outlook could be found just this last year with the ballyhooed discovery of a so-called “liberal gene”:

As a consequence, people with this genetic predisposition who have a greater-than-average number of friends would be exposed to a wider variety of social norms and lifestyles, which might make them more liberal than average. They reported that “it is the crucial interaction of two factors — the genetic predisposition and the environmental condition of having many friends in adolescence — that is associated with being more liberal.”

Outgoing, popular kids equals well-balanced, politically liberal adults?  Conservatives are creepy, adolescent shut-ins?  Curse my shriveled anterior cingulate cortex for reading anything into that study.

Of course, not all scientists are inferring that our political and genetic differences are so stark as to invite a Cro-Magnon/Neanderthal comparison.  In fact, some recongize the potential for political bias in such a report and actively work to tap down any broad-based partisan conclusions…including the actual authors of the study:

While the London study does find distinct differences between Democrats and Republicans, its authors caution that more research needs to be done on the subject. One unknown is whether people are simply born with their political beliefs or if our brains adjust to life experiences–which is a possibility, Kanai writes.

“It’s very unlikely that actual political orientation is directly encoded in these brain regions,” he said in a statement accompanying the study. “More work is needed to determine how these brain structures mediate the formation of political attitude.”

Talk about burying the lead.  And I thought we were just told that larger anterior cingulate cortexs led to understanding complex subjects better. 

Truthfully, we want our differences to be genetic for they absolve us of needing to convince others.  And seeking to find that absolution – that genesis of political thought – in the genius of others brings to mind the words of the discoverer of the double helix, J.D. Watson

One could not be a successful scientist without realizing that, in contrast to the popular conception supported by newspapers and mothers of scientists, a goodly number of scientists are not only narrow-minded and dull, but also just stupid.”

Trumped Up

The Donald leads the field.  I blame women and independents.

Are his 15 minutes of this election cycle up yet? 

It may only be a poll of 385 Republicans nation-wide, but carrying the increasingly limited gravatis of CNN as the poll’s sponsor, few news outlets will miss the opportunity to write the following headline: “Trump GOP’s frontrunner.”

CNN/Opinion Research 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

  • Donald Trump 19% [10%]
  • Mike Huckabee 19% [19%] {21%} (21%) [14%] {24%} (17%)
  • Sarah Palin 12% [12%] {19%} (14%) [18%] {15%} (18%)
  • Newt Gingrich 11% [14%] {10%} (12%) [15%] {14%} (8%)
  • Mitt Romney 11% [18%] {18%} (20%) [21%] {20%} (22%)
  • Ron Paul 7% [8%] {7%} (7%) [10%] {8%} (8%)
  • Michele Bachmann 5%
  • Mitch Daniels 3% [3%] {3%}
  • Tim Pawlenty 2% [3%] {3%} (3%) [3%] {2%} (5%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% [3%] {1%} (2%) [2%] {3%} (5%)
  • Haley Barbour 0% [1%] {3%} (3%) [3%] {1%} (1%)
  • Someone else (vol.) 3% [4%] {5%} (7%) [6%] {5%} (8%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 4% [3%] {4%} (4%) [0%] {5%} (2%)

Trump may be nothing more in the current field than a name ID with an awful comb-over, but the Trump Brand apparently has some political value – especially with Republican-leaning independents and women.  Trump is the first choice of both demographics in the poll, with 24% and 23% respectively. 

The poll may well represent the zenith of Trump’s 2012 candidacy.  On the same day that Trump may capture headlines with his likely dubious polling “lead”, the real estate mogul of New York City politically shot himself in the foot – twice.  First, by publicly claiming that he’d run as an independent if the GOP didn’t nominate him and secondly, by writing scathing notes to a Vanity Fair blogger over a profile.

2011_04_donjtrump.jpg

Harry Truman once wrote an angry letter that caught the public’s eye.  Of course Truman, writing to Washington Post music critic Paul Hume, was defending his daughter against what he believed to be an unfair assault.  Truman’s critique was equal parts Oscar Wilde and Rocky Marciano in it’s prose.  And to channel Lloyd Bentsen: Mr. Trump, you’re no Harry Truman.

Donald’s “Trumpisms” have only continued in recent interviews.  In addition to his “birtherism” fetish, he’s “only interested in Libya if we take the oil,” “I would not leave Iraq and let Iran take over the oil,” and “I would tell China that you’re either going to shape up, or I’m going to tax you at 25% for all the products you send into this country.”

Trump has said he’ll wait until June to make a decision – or perhaps until “The Apprentice” gets off the TV renewal bubble and signed for another season on NBC.

Beyond The Factions…

I’ve been reading Pioneer Press columnist Ruben Rosario for years.

I’ve applauded himfew times, and thrown the odd brickbat as well.

But I’ll ask everyone to put any partisanship and stylistic differences aside to give him your prayers, wishes, or whatever your worldview calls for:]

I left with a diagnosis of multiple myeloma, an incurable blood-related cancer.

Roughly 11,000 Americans die from it annually. Geraldine Ferraro had the disease, and succumbed to pneumonia while being treated for it in a decade-long battle. The general survival rate, I was informed, ranges from two to five or six years. But there are many folks, like Ferraro, who keep on going for years and years. She had been diagnosed in 1998.

I start chemo this week. Wish me luck. I don’t like writing about myself. But I make an allowance on this occasion. Hope you bear with me.

Here’s hoping you’re one of the outliers, Mr. Rosario.

Go Time In SD66

It’s election day in Senate District 66.

If you’re a Republican – or a black parent sick of the racism of low intentions your kids get from the school system, or a Latino family tired of having the DFL take your vote and repudiate your beliefs, or an Asian family tired of having your votes harvested and then having your businesses regulated out of business and your neighborhoods destroyed by the Central Corridor, or a Democrat who works a day job and is sick of seeing how your taxes rise even as your property values plummet – then you need to vote for Greg Copeland.

If you’re a Democrat?  Well, you own this city.  Your leadership is giggling and saying there are no Republicans in Saint Paul and Greg’s got no chance.  Seriously, you do have better things to do, don’t you?

Here’s the SOS polling-station finder site.

Disclosure – I’m a volunteer on the Copeland campaign.

All The News That Fits The Narrative

It’s election day in SD66.  More on that in a bit.

The Pioneer Press didn’t endorse a candidate through the front door.  But that didn’t prevent them from taking their shots through the backdoor.

Dave Orrick spent about a column-foot painting Mary Jo McGuire’s toenails – and then turned to Greg Copeland.  Or at least the part of his bio that fits the DFL’s narrative:

How each arrived at Tuesday’s election is different, too. One bowed out of a political career rather than battle a friend, while the other was run out.

McGuire, 54, a St. Paul native, declined to seek re-election to her House seat in 2002 after a once-a-decade redrawing of the boundaries put her in the same district as her friend and fellow DFLer Rep. Alice Hausman.

How very, very noble!

Copeland’s political history has more turmoil. He left his longtime home of Florida, where he had served as a county commissioner, for Minnesota in the early 1990s. He ran for office unsuccessfully several times.

He served on the Payne- Phalen District 5 Planning Council until 1996, when the board voted him out for allegedly publicly bullying, slandering and humiliating staff and board members, former board members have told the Pioneer Press.

That sounds like some serious allegations.  If only we had a group of people whose job was to investigate things like this.

Except Dave Orrick did.  From Greg Copeland’s response to the PiPress, with emphasis added:

Mr. Orrick reported that I was removed as President of the Payne-Phalen District Council in September 1996, that is true. I can only wonder why as Mr. Orrick looked through your newspapers’ morgue, why did he skipped the story printed in your paper which reported the firing by the Board of Directors of the Community Organizer and the Secretary-Bookkeeper for violating district council financial policy, which is what I blew the whistle on six months earlier. The allegations made by these staff members against me to oust me as President, were reported by Mr. Orrick, why did he not report these same staff were fired six months later for the very serious mis-behavior I brought to the board’s attention as Board President.

Huh.

Wonder how that didn’t make the story.  Seems…germane to me.

As does this:

Also missing from Mr. Orrick’s report was the fact that I was re-elected to the Board of Directors in April 1997 and the Board issued an apology to me and another Board Member who blew the whistle on the then-former staff. The Board of Directors also voted to name me to the St. Paul Mayor’s Honor Roll for distinguished community service to my neighborhood.

Back to Orrick:

In 2006, despite concerns about Copeland — such as his having been delinquent in property taxes and being pursued by creditors — the Maplewood City Council hired Copeland as city manager. Twenty months later, after a series of staff resignations and on the eve of revelations that the city’s finances weren’t being well tracked, he was ousted from City Hall following a political upheaval that also led to the defeat of former Mayor Diana Longrie, Copeland’s chief defender.

The whole story?

Not really, notes Copeland:

Regarding my service as City Manager of Maplewood from April 2006 to January 2008 Mr. Orrick reports I was I was “ousted” on the “eve of revelations” concerning city finances. The fact is all city managers serve at the pleasure of city council majorities. In the November 2007 city election one of the council members lost her re-election contest and when the new city council met for it’s initial organizational meeting I was placed on Administrative Leave, I was not “ousted”, and the city agreed in February 2007 to pay me a five month severance agreement and I left in good standing.

That’s a part of the story that everyone leaves out.

Orrick punches the “balance” ticket, sort of:

On his campaign website, Copeland says of his tenure in Maplewood, in part: “I made significant administrative cost reductions and hired new police officers and firefighters/paramedics, while freezing the property (tax) rate in my first year.”

Copeland elaborates:

There was no “revelation” of fiscal mis-management, quite the contrary, in fact the 2007 City Audit prepared by the Accounting firm of HLB Tautges Redpath, LTD dated August 8, 2008 reported a 2007 budget surplus for my last year as City Manager of $903,873. The audit showed an ending fund balances of $24,269,853, with a 38% unreserved General Fund balance; working capital of $6,858,366 which was a 12% increase over the previous year. I reduced the city debt service as a percentage of total expenditures and under-spent the city’s $29.9 million operating budget saving taxpayers $575,162. All while freezing the 2007 property tax levy and adding new police officers and firefighter/paramedics.

The Pioneer Press – all the news that helps the DFL.

Come on out and vote today.

Disclosure – I’ve been volunteering for the Copeland campaign.

What Forest? Nothing Here But A Bunch Of Trees!

As usual, when reviewing the DFL’s claims, the rule of thumb is “distrust but verify; then, resume the distrust”.

So too with DFL House Minority Leader Paul “Mini-Bakk” Thissen’s claims that the GOP budget is “destroying jobs”.   MPR’s “Poligraph” addresses Thissen’s claims.

At least, analyzes the direct claim on its face.  To really analyze it, and the DFL’s entire response to the GOP’s initiative to re-engineer how this state budgets its’ resources the money they divert from the economy, you have to dig a little deeper.

“Last week, the House Higher Ed budget put 1,200 employees at Minnesota’s colleges and universities on notice” he wrote in an April 5, 2010, press release. “The tax bill will slash another 1,700 jobs in counties and cities across Minnesota… With [the state government jobs] bill, the Republican Majority not only hands out an additional 754 pink slips, but also slashes support for private sector job creation.”

Thissen, DFL-Minneapolis, is right that cutting government spending would cost jobs, but his numbers are hard to pin down.

In part because they were never meant to be “pinned down”.  Scare lines are supposed to be nice and vague.

And scare lines are all the DFL really has, this session.

Problem is, Thissen’s scare line isn’t even a good one:

The House version of higher education funding bill would cut about 17.7 percent from the University of Minnesota’s budget and mandate a tuition cap of up to 5 percent. That could mean the loss of 600 to 700 jobs, said Richard Pfutzenreuter who is the Treasurer for the University of Minnesota.

But he points out that those numbers include employees who will retire early and jobs that will remain vacant. Only a fraction will be layoffs, he said. Further, it’s unlikely the university would balance its budget only by cutting jobs, he said. Rather, it will be a mix of trims.

Meanwhile, the Minnesota State Colleges and Universities (MnSCU) budget would be cut nearly 16 percent. As a result, the system is looking at either 554 staff reductions or 490 faculty reductions, including retirements and unfilled positions. That’s about 3 percent of the system’s 19,300 person workforce, according to spokeswoman Melinda Voss.

All told, that’s about 1,200 jobs. But Thissen’s figure is on the high end because it’s unlikely all cuts would come from layoffs. And those figures include retirements and unfilled positions as well.

In other words, Thissen is taking the “worst case” – more on that later – and putting it out there, unvarnished and without context, to disinform the voter.  And MPR is giving the reader the gentlest possible reminder to read beneath the surface.

Thissen’s numbers are based on fact, but he leaves out some important points. For instance, he doesn’t mention that it’s unlikely that the University of Minnesota will cut only jobs to save money, nor does he point out that employment reductions would be made through retirements and hiring freezes, not just layoffs. And his claim on the tax bill relies on just one source–Gov. Mark Dayton.

Given all these caveats, it was a tough call. But overall, Thissen is correct that the spending bills being debated in the House would likely mean government job losses throughout the state.

Right.

Just like cratering revenue means job losses to all of us in the private sector.

And what does the private sector do when this happens?

Not just lay people 0ff (not the smart companies, anyway); if it wants to survive, the business changes the way it does business.

And as much as it may hurt the feelings of some government workers, it’s a fact that there is a difference between the horse that’s pulling the cart and the one that’s sitting in the back cracking the whip.  Government funding exists because the private sector pulls the cart forward. Fewer horses in the cart makes the whole thing easier to pull – and, ideally, means more horses can do the pulling.

Which is something that was, to be fair, outside the scope of the MPR piece – and something Thissen wants to keep you from thinking about.

Education

There’s a reason that most sound bites in the news are less than seven seconds long; in the modern media, that’s considered the limit of the typical viewer’s  attention span.

Ditto for political slogans and memes.  It’s easy for someone to say, for example, “Tom Emmer’s opposition to gay marriage means he hates gays” – it’s a simple little line that takes mere seconds to ingrain itself into the minds of the susceptible; un-ingraining it takes long, detailed, attention-span-burning minutes to debunk.

The budget battle is one of those things.

The Tea Party was based – as it should have been – around a couple of simple but vital ideas; cut spending, reduce taxes, reduce the size of government.

It was those ideas that, as a matter of fact, won the Novembe 2010 election for the GOP.

Now, there are a lot of conservatives complaining that the GOP – in Saint Paul and in DC – have lost the way lit by those simple directions.

The complicated answer:  we only control the House of Representatives in Washington; any legislation favorite by the Tea Party needs to pass a hostile Senate and a president who, if he shows up for work, will veto it if it’s too far outside his comfort zone.   Much as it irritates Tea Partiers, it’s taken some old-fashioned politics to get things this far.

In fact, the complicated part is that last week’s budget wasn’t really “the budget”; the debate was over, and the cuts were to, the discrtionary spending budget, which is a small fraction of the government’s multi-trillion dollar behemoth.  The bad news: the GOP had to hold off on some cuts.  The good news?  Commitments to up-or-down votes that’ll be useful in next year’s campaign to take the Senate. Because without the Senate and, hopefully, the Presidency, real reform is costly-to-impossible.

So the just-shy-of-$40 bilion of cuts were to a small fracion of the budget. Now – things will heat up with the introduction of Rep. Ryan’s plan to reform non-discretionary spending in a little bit here.   That’s where the real money is.

The real points are these:

  • Until conservatives control the government, some compromise is inevitable. That’s why we warned you after the last election – the work has really only begun; we have to take the Senate.  And keep it.
  • No one single vote is going to be the litmus test of reform. It’s a process.  Processes are boing, and they take years, and in the long run that’s a good thing.  Of course, we’re worried if there’s going to be a “long run”.
  • The media knows this.  They will use the time it’s taking as a wedge to try to drive the Tea Party away from the GOP.  Expect a raft of “Tea Partiers fret that things are just going too slow” manufactured outrage in coming weeks.

All the more reason the Tea Party rallies this weekend are so vital.

More later.

A Vote For Chaos

The Pioneer Press has declined to give an endorsement in the Senate District 66 special election:

It’s not that long ago that we endorsed Ellen Anderson for another term as state senator in District 66, covering northwestern St. Paul and Falcon Heights. On Tuesday, voters will select a replacement for Anderson, who resigned last month to accept Gov. Mark Dayton’s appointment as chair of the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission.

Their rationale was less a sign of political ecumenicism …:

Anderson is a member of St. Paul’s dominant Democratic-Farmer-Labor party, and her district, like all in St. Paul and Minneapolis, is considered a “safe” DFL seat. So the DFL candidate on Tuesday’s ballot, former state Rep. Mary Jo McGuire of Falcon Heights, will be favored against the Republican, former Maplewood city manager Greg Copeland of St. Paul.

… than localistic power-mongering;

We choose not to make a recommendation in this race. Both candidates have their strengths, but each has a ways to go to reach Anderson’s level of expertise and advocacy. A more competitive profile in the district might require DFLers to broaden their appeal, and might also have stirred more competition on the Republican side.

Which isn’t entirely a bad thing.

It’s a minor victory for Copeland; the PiPress, despite a few high-profile breaks (endorsing Bush in 2004, Coleman in ’08) generally hews to the DFL party line.  “No endorsement” is usually as close as non-shoo-in Republicans will get to a PiPress endorsement.

We heard from both candidates the sentiment that neither side can have its way. That is a message worth taking from the citizenry to the Capitol, whoever wins on Tuesday. And if this remains a “safe” DFL seat, McGuire faces the challenge of using her security to build expertise and influence, as Anderson did in the area of energy and the environment.

Pork!

Still, there’s an underlying sentiment…

More broadly, St. Paul faces the challenge of learning how to speak “Republican.” This is important not so much because control of the Legislature has turned from DFL to GOP, though that matters, but because of the times we’re in. In districts that are too “safe,” favored candidates can win without serious challenge to the premise of their favored policies.

That is not an advantage, because these are premise-rattling times, and the ability to reimagine public priorities and how they’re managed is essential.

…that more of our idiot media could stand to learn from.

Trump Card

P.T. Barnum runs for president. 

He’s vowed that he’s taking a presidential bid seriously.   He’s sent aides on “exploratory trips” for his nascent campaign.  He’s pledged millions of dollars towards his candidacy.  And what’s more, he’s taken seriously – by the media, the punditry, and the polls. 

Of course, all of that was in 2000.

When it comes to the media’s political fascination with eccentric billionaire millionaire massive debt holder Donald Trump, few could argue that the Donald is the rightful heir to 19th century showman P.T. Barnum.  For Trump’s multiple aborted presidential candidacies, ranging from 1988, to 2000, and now, prove Barnum’s misattributed cultural epitaph that indeed a sucker is born every minute.

Like Charlie Brown convincing himself that this time Lucy will not pull away the football, much of the media has engaged Trump’s third would-be presidential bid with increasing seriousness.  And why not?  Trump polls surprisingly well against the expected Republican field, placing fourth with 11% just days ago in a Fox News national poll.  Even Trump seems to be taking his latest political dalliance seriously enough to risk his most important attribute – his brand – by claiming to seek the nomination of one of the two major parties rather than another circa 2000 independent bid.

What remains harder to fathom is Trump’s appeal in the first place.  For a man known for his super ego, getting to the id of Donald Trump is vexing for many in the punditry.  Some view Trump as a symptom of the weak Republican field.  George Will likewise dismissed Trump as part of the gaggle of “spotlight-chasing candidates of 2012.”  Charles Krauthammer looked pained to even have to discuss Trump’s candidacy.  Others view Trump as the closing argument in their case of the failure of the political class:

Trump is suddenly “winning” as a political figure because the political class has failed. The authority of our political institutions is weak and getting weaker; it’s not that Americans ‘lack trust’ in them, as blue ribbon pundits and sociologists often lament, so much as they lack respect for the people inside them.

There is a lot of crazy surrounding the Trump phenomenon — some excellent, some embarrassing. But the massive fact dominating it all is that never before has such a famous outsider jumped into national politics with such an aggressive critique of a sitting president and the direction of the country — and never before has the response been so immediate and positive.

Um, not quite.

The novelty of Trump 2012 isn’t that novel.  The celebrity politician is nothing new – nor is Trump’s anti-Obama bravado.  Trump’s “aggressive critique” has largely been an ad hoc foreign policy mixing neo-conservative bluster and paleo-conservative isolationism with a chaser of paranoia that Obama is the country’s first super secret Nigerian sleeper agent.  Perhaps the only true novelty of Trump’s “candidacy” is that he would link his image to “birtherism.”  Or maybe Trump is merely projecting and he’s the sleeper agent sent to undermine the GOP.  After all, he did call Nancy Pelosi “the best.”

Understanding how an arrogant, over-the-top self-promoter has risen in the polling ranks of the GOP field doesn’t require searching for some sort of meta answer.  After a number of political cycles in which the presidential race started incredible early, for once the field is not settled nor is any candidate dashing out of the gates.  Trump represents a known name whose actively in the news – for better or for worse.  Few other contenders or pretenders can claim the same. 

The Donald wouldn’t mind being president but would rather use his candidacy as a perpetual trump card whenever his media image needs a boost.  Once the more serious candidates get underway and the early measures of success – fundraising, debate performances, endorsements and volunteers – become the most important yard markers, attention towards Trump will shrink.  With fewer and fewer onlookers to his latest political act, in Barnum like fashion, Trump will fold his tent and move on to his next show.

Hate Crime

The weekend after Tuan Pham’s application for a variance for his statue of Jesus was rejected by the city, vandals build and light a big fire around of his statues:

A 7-foot Jesus statue in Tuan Pham’s back yard and at the heart of a zoning dispute was damaged by fire Sunday morning.

Pham and his wife, Mai, awoke for an early church service to see a blaze enveloping the marble statue Pham had imported and erected in his prayer garden beside the Mississippi River bluff. A pile of nail-studded wood had been stacked around the statue’s base and lit on fire.

Welcome to America…

Pham, 75, put on a coat, ran outside and tried to move the burning 2-by-4s away from his beloved statue. A daughter called police, comforted her mother and began snapping photos.

The incident has left the family distraught but more determined to keep the statue in its current spot — one that the St. Paul City Council says is closer to the edge of the bluff than city rules permit.

“God never gave up,” Pham said. “So I follow him.”

“It’s a sign,” said Pham’s daughter, Sylvie Phan. “God wants his name to be known.”

It’s a sign, all right – of lots of things.

On top of what the Phams have seen, it’s a sign of what life is like for anyone who bucks the status quo in Saint Paul.  From a St. Paul community forum:

The fire that was set was quite large, but could not destroy his statue, so the arsonists decided to trash some of the other statuary in the yard.

The police were called, of course, but refused to investigate. Tuan was told to come to the station on Monday and fill out a report…arson and hate crime, not a big deal in St. Paul, I guess.

The statue is 3′ INSIDE the yard fence, but evidently Bucky Thune (who was named by Mr. Pham as a lead antagonist) found an ordinance that would force the Phams to move the statue 2’…two fucking feet.

That means the entire grotto would have to be dismantled, which of course is the goal.

Looking up and down the bluff, one can see sheds, swing sets and all manner of constructions closer to the bluff than Tuan’s statue. But Christ has gotta go.

Look – we don’t know who set the fire.

But I would feel comfortable betting money it’ll end up being some hanger-on from the Twin Cities left.

What Is At Stake On Tuesday

Tuesday is the special election in SD66.

Greg Copeland is running against former DFL Rep Mary Jo McGuire.

What’s at stake?

If McGuire wins, not much will change; Saint Paul will go from being represented by a whackdoodle liberal to an arguably less whackdoodle liberal.  There’ll be a net/net zero change in the minority caucus.

But some of the things McGuire stands for deserve scrutiny – especially in the wake of the Wisconsin situation.

McGuire introduced a bill that would have made state judgeships appointed, rather than elected, positions:

McGuire was Chief Author in 1997 of HF 1077 which  Proposed  a Constitutional Amendment Requiring that ALL Minnesota Judges To Be APPOINTED by the Governor!

Why is this a bad thing?

Of course, if you’re worried about special interests dominating judicial elections, the OSI/JAS alternative is even worse. That’s because state bar associations and legal groups are dominated by trial lawyers. Lawyers and law firms are the seventh biggest political donors of “all time,” according to Opensecrets.org, and dominate state politics in parts of the country.

The judicial system should maintain a necessary degree of impartiality, but America’s founders certainly didn’t intend for judges to be unmoored from democracy. About 95 percent of America’s civil disputes end up in state courts. That’s an enormous amount of power, which needs checks and balances. There’s a reason why 87 percent of America’s judges are elected.

There are so many reasons to vote for Copeland next Tuesday; he opposes the Central Corridor (even now!) and public taxes for the Vikings; he’ll push for a $10K/jerb tax credit, and advocate a two year property tax freeze.

But perhaps the best reason is that the DFL elite, which treat Saint Paul like they do all of their other special interests – as a milk cow for votes and support – deserves the setback.  They think they own Saint Paul – it’s their own words.  This sort of arrogance shouldn’t be rewarded.

So please help Greg out.  Money’s good (donations page), although it’s getting late for that.  What the campaign needs right now – today through the election – is volunteers.  Volunteers on the phone bank, and out door-knocking.  If you can spare an hour or two, please check in.

Every campaign says they can win.  Every campaign must believe it on some level, or nobody would try to run at all (as, in some parts of Saint Paul, indeed, no Republican does; we’re working on changing that).

This special election race is going to be a tough one.  But if every Republican turns out, it’s doable.  So if you’re a Republican – or a Democrat who is sick of the way your party is abusing the taxpayer – and you live in SD66…

…please come out on Tuesday.  And if you know someone in SD66 who should be voting, make sure they turn out on Tuesday!

We can do this!

I am, of course, a volunteer on the Copeland campaign.