As noted earlier, the polls look all right for Trump – far better, in fact, than in 2016 and 2020.

But there’s no way to know what’s baked into the “special sauce” in the polls. Did they overcorrect from their embarassing showing in 2016 and 2020? Did they over-overcorrect for 2022? There’s no way to know.

So let’s not get cocky:

I want to make sure readers understand that, given the closeness of this race, the unpredictability (and inevitability) of polling error, and the Electoral College geography, a Harris/Walz victory remains plausible. You are permitted here, for a moment, to luxuriate in the irony that minorities are now the “problem” for Democrats — increasingly detached from what progressives arrogantly assumed would be a permanent relationship of political patronage. But MAGA types should save the smugness for now, if for no other reason than that Harris’s victory, should it emerge, will be properly interpreted as a direct rebuke to them.

I early-voted yesterday – something I’d never have thought about four years ago.

It took an hour to get into the polling station.  This was in Roseville, MN – a very blue suburb. 

Beyond the presidency – flipping the MN House, and ending the ravages of the “Trifecta”, is also at stake.

Two years ago, I resisted the “Red Wave” hype – it never quite smelled right to me. 

This year?  “It’s Trump’s race to lose” is a little more plausible – and thus,  more dangerous.

Drag people to the polls, already.

 

This entry was posted by by Mitch Berg on Tuesday, October 29th, 2024 at 6:19 am and is filed under Campaign '24, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.