So – Tina Smith is retiring from politics.

The rumor mill has it that the Walz camp is pressuring Smith to resign early, so he can appoint himself – setting himself up as an incumbent in the Senate race (and Flanagan in a hypothetical governor race), and giving him and Gwen that “inside the beltway” view they clearly lust for.  Flanagan entering the race changes that equation, maybe.

But let’s put a pin in the rumor, and talk about what we do know:  there are five DFL candidates so far saying they’re running, or thinking strongly about it:

• Gov. Walz
• Lt. Gov. Flanagan
• Rep. Ilhan Omar
• Rep. Angie Craig
• State Rep. Leigh Finké.

Who’s gonna get the nod in the end?

We’ll come back to that.

SOP – One thing Ken Martin has always been good at is concealing the metro DFL’s insanity to the state at large.  He’s sought, I think it’s fair to say, to convey the image that the DFL isn’t thst different from the Humphrey/Mondale DFL that everyone’s grandparents voted for while listening to WCCO and talking about Bud Grant over a Hamms and some walleye.  

See also 2018 – when the DFL convention was well on its way to endorsing Erin Murphy and Erin Maye Quade for the top of the gubernatorial ticket, as well as radical Matt Pelikan for Attorney General.  Martin stepped in, marshalled the party’s resources, attached Walz to Peggy Flanagan to keep the progressive base happy(er), and dragged him across the. primary finish line with barely a 40% plurality. 

With Ken Martin in charge, one might presume the machinations would end up something like…

• • State Rep. Leigh Finké – kryptonite outside CD4-5.   Ultra-progs might rally around Finké at the convention – especially now that Flanagan looks like a relative moderate – but the ultra-progressivr DSA vote would still get split with… 

• • Rep. Ilhan Omar, who would also be poison statewide, but who can raise money like…well, a Democrat with connections in Hollywood.  

• • Lt. Gov. Flanagan – She used to be considered borderline radical – she had the most “progressive” voting record in the MN House in 2018.   Is she progressive enough to keep the loony vote from moving to Omar and maybe Finké?  And while she was in literally every Walz ad, news release and selfie from 2018 to five minutes after he got off the national campaign trail, she hasn’t actually done anything.   What does she run on – being Tim Walz’s insurance policy? 

• • Rep. Angie Craig – On the one hand, she could climb into her jeep and make some more ads cavorting around Le Seuer county with some central-casting Good Ol’ Boys to make herself more appealing to Greater Minnesota than the three above.   Which leaves…

• • Gov. Walz, the incumbent.  On the one hand, polling shows he’s still got general approval – which is inexplicable to me.  He’s got a national profile.  He’s got fundraising chops like Omar – likely similar to those Crag draws from.  

If Ken Martin were in charge, I’d guess he’d throw the state DFL behind Walz, offer to get behind Flanagan for Governor, promise resources to soften and broaden Omar’s image for a future Senate run whenever A-Klo leaves office. 

But that was Ken Martin.   

Swerve: Persistent rumor has it that Ken Martin will be replaced by Richard Carlbom – former head (however briefly) of “Protect” Minnesota (remember them?) and before that the architect of the Same Sex Marriage amendment push.

On the one hand, he’s more openly allied with the “progressive” wing than Martin. 

On the other, he’s smart enough to have sold same sex marriage as a “moderate-enough” issue to win a statewide vote. 

If I had to predict…

This entry was posted by by Mitch Berg on Wednesday, February 19th, 2025 at 6:49 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.