Slip
By Mitch Berg
As a good American of rural Scandinavian/Scottish descent, I’m rarely given to sharing optimism publicly. It’s just not in the DNA.
And, as always, I’m a Trump skeptic.
The race could still swing either way; there’s a week left for October Surprises (although have of them, mathematically, would be November surprises).
But over the weekend, the Real Clear Politics average finally showed Trump up in their polling average.
The margin is well within the margin of error – like, in the margin of error’s upper GI tract. But this is the first lead of any kind Trump has had in the RCP average since Harris’s “surge” after defenestrating the Potato. And if it holds until Election Day, it’ll be the first time Trump has ever led the RCP average at election time – 2016, 2020 or this year.
Now, I never bought the “Red Wave” hype in 2022, and I’m not getting on board any bandwagons this year either. But I think two, maybe three, stories over the weekend got me thinking.
Lifeboats
VIrginia hasn’t gone Republican, IIRC, since the ’84 landlside.
But as Strommie points out, this isn’t your father’s VIrginia:
Harris is still up, but the change in momentum is pretty clear. If Harris is going to have to fight to defend Virginia, that could make for a very long election night for her, and a much shorter one for me.
Self-Inflicted
Over the weekend, NBC News started to rip off the bandaid – Arab-Americans in MIchigan are…not very warm to Harris:
[Michigan state represetnative Abanas] Farhat said the Democratic Party “has missed several key opportunities” to reassure Arab American voters concerned about Gaza. One glaring oversight, he said, is the ongoing decision to supply Israel with weapons for its military campaign in the enclave. He also points to how the Democratic National Convention did not allow a Palestinian American affected by the war to speak, despite giving a platform to the parents of Hersh Goldberg-Polin, a slain Israeli American who was abducted by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023.
“The time for listening — we’re beyond that now,” Farhat said. “We’re in a phase where constituencies like mine are demanding action in the form of policy change, not just rhetoric change, but in seeing a party that for years this community has been loyal to, standing up for them.”
It’d be reasonable to read the NBC piece and conclude that Harris could lose Michigan’s Arabs – and, possibly, Michigan itself – rather than Trump winning it.
But events over the weekend showed us it might not be quite that simple:
At the Suburban Collection Showplace, 46100 Grand River Ave., a group of Muslim imams from the Michigan Chapter of the Arab American Bar Association took the stage to endorse Trump, expressing their support for his stance on ending the wars in the Middle East.
“We as Muslims stand with President Trump because he promises peace not war,” one of the imams said. “We are supporting Donald Trump because he promised to end war in the Middle East and Ukraine.”
The imams voiced a shared desire for peace, emphasizing that their communities want to see an end to these wars. Joining them was the mayor of Dearborn Heights, Bill Bazzi, who also took the stage to endorse Trump.
I did not have that on my bingo card. Speaking of candidate just losing states…
Worse
Remember 2016? When Hillary only carried MInnesota by two points?
The Conventional wisdom was not that Trump almost won, but that Hillary almost lost; that Hillary was an unlikeable, bad candidate.
So my question, amid the usual overheated rumors that Trump is contending in Minnesota – and I’ve asked this of a number of Republicans – is this: is Harris a better candidate and more likeable, presidential candidate than Killary?
October 29th, 2024 at 1:02 pm
After Trump won in 2016, I lost friends. So many of my supposed friends were personally vicious on the Book of Faces that I closed my account. My life has been a lot less stressful since then. So thanks, Mr. President, for that.
After the 2020 election was lost or stolen – depending on who you talk to – a few of them eventually came around to realizing I was the same guy I had been before Trump and that the world had not ended under Trump, so maybe they were safe to resume old friendships. A couple of relationships were restored on the understanding we would never discuss politics.
Win or lose, I look for things to be Much Much worse this time around.
October 29th, 2024 at 1:19 pm
I remember hearing someone 6+ months ago (maybe even 9 months back), predict that if the war in Gaza lingered on until the Election, it might tip the vote for Trump. The suggestion wasn’t that Biden pressure Netanyahu into a peace deal without resolving Hamas by threatening to withhold weapons or siding with the Antisemites at the UN. His suggestion was to encourage Israel to finish the fight ASAP so that the antisemites here in America forgot about the issue and could “come home” to the Democrat Party in November. I don’t remember who specifically made those points, but he was an anti-Trump, possibly former Republican. And I may have added the word antisemites to the summary I gave.
The fact that this issue lingers and could affect Michigan is hilarious.
October 29th, 2024 at 4:20 pm
OK, wait, because Ms. Harris is not sufficiently pro-Hamas, Arab-Americans are going to vote for the guy who moved the U.S. Embassy to Israel to….Jerusalem? The most openly pro-Israel President we’ve had?
Hey, I don’t mind that this is killing Hamas Barbie’s chances of the Presidency, but this is wild. What have I been smoking to think this is possible?
October 29th, 2024 at 8:26 pm
“It’d be reasonable to read the NBC piece and conclude that Harris could lose Michigan’s Arabs – and, possibly, Michigan itself – rather than Trump winning it.”
Despite Trump wholeheartedly supporting the Israeli genocide in Palestine. No explanation available.