Peaking?

Yesterday was a big day in polling for MN Republicans.

Top of the order – Real Clear Politics’s polling summary shows Scott Jensen behind, still – but the second most-improved of the GOP hopefuls:

That’s over the previous two weeks – and it was the best performance of a number of underdog Republican gubernatorial candidates. As Dan McLaughlin said:

In the gubernatorial races, the Wave Surfers are Christine Drazan, Kari Lake, Joe Lombardo, Stitt, Derek Schmidt, and Tim Michels. Maybe you could persuade me with one more poll to slide Scott Jensen into this bracket.

And its been 16 years since that’s been said out loud.


Later in the day? I suspect some interns were soundly thrashed when the news came out:

Wilson up five over Blaha, with plenty undecided, but Biden underwater in Minnesota and momentum apparently moving the other way? Fingernails will be chewed. But it could be worse.

And the big news:

Courtesy KSTP-TV

GOP Attorney General candidate Jim Schultz up by nearly double the margin of error, with barely enough undecideds to swing the race to Ellison if they all joined him (ignoring the MOE for a moment).

As to the Governor’s race?

Survey USA, which had Jensen down 18 points two months ago, currently has him…

…down eight.

I’m not going to claim SUSA is biased in the same way I showed the Star Tribune Minnesota Poll was. Clearly the methodology differences between SUSA and the Trafalgar Poll a few weeks back are pretty immense, and it’ll be interesting, to say the least, to see how this shakes out over the next week.

18 thoughts on “Peaking?

  1. Booting Hakim has value, but what do you think will change if Jensen boots Walz? 10/10 he will be another Pawlenty; warming a seat.

    In order to effect any change, y’all would need a sea change in the legislature, and that’s not gonna happen. Not today, not tomorrow.

    Not trying to black pill y’all; just keeping you grounded in reality.

  2. ps: Please spring my comment from moderation jail in the “Assault” thread. I think it’s kind of important. ty

  3. Those polls are just a signal to all those “vote counters” that they have a long hard night ahead of them. Those votes don’t count themselves, you know. And with the MSM so unapologetically favoring Democrats, the vote counters should be able to get all the time they need.

    But when that 2-in-the-morning, sudden, from out of nowhere cache of thousands of DFL votes is found and added to the counts, it’ll be high fives all round.

  4. in 2000 we learned about hanging chads and dimpled chads as democrats tried to steal the election while we watched the election judges holding up ballots live on televsion

    democrats lost and learned the valuable lesson leave no evidence of the crime

    in 2008 they miscounted how many fraudulent felon ballots were needed to put franken over the top and ended up a few ballots short but luckily found them in the truck of the election judges car just in time for the recount lawsuit

    okay thats enough no more paper ballots too easy to get caught cheating

    in 2020 the paper ballots were counted in secret then locked away leaving only ever shifting computer totals with the astonishing 4:00 am jump hey no evidence no problem election must be fair and square right lesko brandon wins

    cant wait to see how they cheat this time probably claim republicans said mean things about trans voters who were terrified to go to the polls to vote so we just added a few democrat ballots to vindicate their franchise rights not many only wait how many do we need wow what an amazing coincidence thats exactly how many we added

    why you are questioning the result you hater

  5. I’ll be watching next Wednesday and how many GOP activists who have no comment on Trump and the big lie start to claim voter fraud is the only explanation for a Walz win.

  6. National polls show an increase in suburban women moving to the GOP by 22%. Minnesota was obviously not included in that poll, because the majority of them are college indoctrinated, low information voters. If the DemoCommies win, the stupidity of voting on one issue, will show up within 6 months.

  7. The future of American democracy is not on the ballot next Tuesday. The future of free and fair elections in America rests with the coming prosecutions most likely to be announced by the DoJ over the next 60 to 120 days. (Some indictments might await the release of the report by the House Select Committee on January 6. ) AG Garland becomes the pivotal figure next Wednesday morning; all eyes will be on him. The Constitution stands above any one election.

    Most likely Biden will announce that he will not be a candidate for reelection in the coming months. The key timing issue might be whether or not he announces before or after the State of the Union speech. If before, Biden could then use the State of the Union speech to announce a plausible domestic and foreign program that would have sufficient breadth for some of it to get through Congress during the following two years. There is also a full plate of foreign issues that could productively employ his time over the next two years. He has a superb international team; he could get some important things done of lasting benefit.

    Both the Republic and Biden have a better future than most SiTD commentators predict.

  8. It is hard to believe that Michels can poll ahead of Evers in Wisconsin while Jensen is behind Walz in Minnesota. The two states and the candidates are cookie-cutter. Maybe campaign spending? Michels has been matching Evers campaign spending by using his own bucks.

  9. If Democrats are unable to stop Republicans from claiming that kids are using litter boxes at school, then I have no choice but to vote Republican.

  10. Jebuz…where did people come up with “furries”? What nut job thought this insanity up?

    “What are furries?
    According to furscience.com, the term ‘furry’ describes a community where people create themselves an anthropomorphized animal character with whom they identify and can function as an avatar in the community. Furries can wear elaborate costumes or simply animal ears or tails.

    Furscience is the public face of the International Anthropomorphic Research Project (IARP), which is led by multiple doctors/scientists.

    Local 5 will continue to update this story if more districts respond.”
    https://www.wearegreenbay.com/news/local-news/furries-in-wisconsin-schools-districts-respond-to-alleged-furry-protocols/

    Oh…experts. Well, that’s different, then.

    Next thing you know, the Luddites will be questioning the validity of the female D.

  11. Here’s some good news for reprobates. Gangs of their 70IQ, Somali “refugees” are busy at the UofM, putting White kids in the hospital burn wards. That should keep them from “voting against their own best interests”.

    https://alphanews.org/u-of-m-to-temporarily-increase-police-presence-after-weekend-violence/

    (Remember the time when Berg said violence was a Scotch/Irish Southern thing? My hillbilly friends cannot imagine living like this.)

  12. Because Emery seems confused about which party is the party of election denial, here’s a link to twelve+ minutes of democrats denying the legitimacy of certified elections.
    https://youtu.be/XX2Ejqjz6TA

  13. ^ Waittaminute… I thought the U told the (Mpls) police to take a hike because that whole law enforcement thing is way overrated. So now it’s (mercenary) off duty cops? Did Muffy and Lance’s parents from Minnetonka and Excelsior (U alumni themselves) call the Regents to say that there will be no more 5-, 6-digit annual donations unless something is done?

    In his letter to students and staff, Frans said the “safety of our community” remains “a top priority for this administration.”

    Which is a lie because if the students’ safety has always been a priority, why would they be making changes.

  14. It is hard to believe that Michels can poll ahead of Evers in Wisconsin while Jensen is behind Walz in Minnesota. The two states and the candidates are cookie-cutter. Maybe campaign spending? Michels has been matching Evers campaign spending by using his own bucks.

    Except they aren’t. Population in Wisconsin is far more dispersed than it is in Minnesota. The Twin Cities dominate the state and its politics in a way that Milwaukee and Madison cannot in Wisconsin. Minnesota behaves more like Washington state, with its dominant Seattle/Tacoma metro.

  15. I think that there is something to that, Mr. D. The counties of the Twin City metro area dominate the rest of Minnesota in a way that Milwaukee/Madison do not dominate Wisconsin.
    BTW, an interesting anecdote.
    I have a friend who works as a contractor remodeling Walmarts. He just got back from working at an inner city Milwaukee Walmart. He said it was like going to a third world country. There were two police cruisers stationed in the parking lot at all times. Loudspeakers in the parking lot issued warnings that the police were there to break up “illegal gatherings.” He went to his work truck and found the car parked next to it in the process of being repo’d. Inside the store even the athletic socks were in a lockup to deter thieves.
    The other Walmart he works at in Eastern Wisco is in Rhinelander. I asked him how that Walmart was, and shrugged and said “like here” meaning the Saint Croix Falls – Forest Lake area.
    BTW, my friend is married to a non-American black woman.

  16. He has a superb international team
    Without a doubt. This is the same crack team of foreign service professionals who strongly advised the Taliban to respect women’s rights after they gave the Taliban Afghanistan.

  17. The NY Times:
    WASHINGTON — For President Biden, the Dreaming-of-F.D.R. phase of his presidency may end in little more than a week. If Republicans capture one or both houses of Congress in midterm elections, as polling suggests, Mr. Biden’s domestic agenda will suddenly transform from a quest for a New Deal 2.0 to trench warfare defending the accomplishments of his first two years in office.
    On a wide array of issues like abortion, taxes, race and judges, Mr. Biden’s opportunities would invariably shrink as he focuses less on advancing the expansive policy goals that have animated his administration and more on preserving the newly constructed economic and social welfare architecture that Republicans have vowed to dismantle.

    While the president and Democratic leaders have not publicly given up on the possibility of hanging onto Congress in the balloting that concludes on Nov. 8, privately they are pessimistic and bracing for two years of grinding partisan conflict.
    In addition to efforts to block or reverse Mr. Biden’s domestic initiatives, Republican control of either house would result in a flurry of subpoenas and investigations of the administration that would define the relationship between the White House and Congress.
    Mr. Biden’s aspirations to codify abortion rights, expand access to child care and college, address racial discrimination in policing, install more like-minded judges and guarantee voting rights would all become more difficult, if not impossible, to achieve.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.