2006.
That’s how long it’s been since I’ve seen a poll – any poll generally considered reputable – that showed a GOP statewide candidate, a Governor, Attorney General, Auditor or Secretary of State – ahead in a race before an election.
We’ll come back to that.
A few weeks back, my NARN colleague Jack Tomczak and I were invited to speak at a Liberty Tea Party Patriots meeting. The invite came right after the Survey USA poll, right after the State Fair, that showed Scott Jensen down by 18 points. It was a dismal couple of weeks to be a Republican. The organizers wanted someone to help put the poll in context. Jack lives and breathes that stuff, and I have done a little dabbling on the subject as well.
In the intervening weeks between the SUSA poll and a Trafalgar poll that showed the governor’s race at five points, things got a little brighter – a poll with a history of measuring Republican turnout adequately accurately showed us losing a little less badly than Jeff Johnson in 2018.
So when the meeting came around, Jack pretty much had the line of the evening. I’ll paraphrase it: if you’re looking for a poll that shows Jensen leading? There is none. The only way to fix that is to get out there and work like hell to change that by election day.
And he was right.
And he still is.
The good news: another Alphanews Trafalgar Poll shows Jensen ahead by half a point.
The bad news: An Alphanews Trafalgar Poll shows Jensen ahead by half a point.
I’ll explain.
Special Sauce: It’s a Trafalgar Poll, sponsored by a right-leaning news organization. A DFLer might squawk “Hah! It’s a conservative-leaning poll sponsored by a conservative propaganda mill! OF COURSE they show Jensen leading!”
Alphanews is indeed Minnesota’s main conservative-leaning daily news source. But dismissing Trafalgar because “it’s Republican” is just as intellectually dishonest as dismissing Survey USA or PPP or Quinnipiac because they’re Democratic. Are the facts presented right, or are they wrong? That’s the only question that matters.
Let’s focus on facts, not parties, for a moment.
Trafalgar was also pretty much the only poll that showed Trump with a shot at winning in 2016; they called the much better-than-expected showing for the GOP in Congress in 2020. The theory is that whatever methodological “special sauce” (to borrow David Brauer’s term) Trafalgar brings to the table that helps them to measure Republicans, who seem to be stubbornly undercounted by Survey USA and 538 and the like, might give this poll a little extra credibility.
Pollsters’ special sauce is a little like boy-band popularity; it comes and goes fast.
Remember John Zogby? He was the “It” boy of the 2000 race. Whatever his special sauce was, it hit the mark in the Bush/Gore race. But thet was a long time ago; By 2008, Zogby was background noise; he still does polling, but the results rarely seem to track observed reality. His special sauce hit its shelf date.
Rasmussen? They nailed 2004, and stayed relevant through most of the decade. They’re still out there – but nobody’s called him the best in the business in quite some time.
Nate Silver and 538? Quinnipiac? SUSA? Each of them went through a period as the “it” poll. And just as surely as New Edition handed off to Bell Biv Devote, to Boys 2 Men, and thence to New Kids on the Block, then Backstreet Boys and NSYNC to One Direction to BTS, every few cycles brings a new “it” pollster.
Trafalgar was “it” in ’16 and ’20. They didn’t get a lot of credit for it in the media, since Trafalgar brought them bad news of Republican strength.
Do they still have their special sauce?
We’ll know two weeks from Tuesday, I guess.
So what does the poll actually say?
Half a point.
But there are 3.9% worth of voters polling for four third-parties, all of them somewhere left of center: the remains of the “Independence” party, Jesse Ventura’s vanity organization, which was and remains moderate-libertarian left, the two legal weed parties (mostly libertarian left) and of course the Socialist Workers. Will the Democrats in those parties come “home” to the DFL to beat back the Red horde? DFLers tend to fall into line after they get their rebellions streaks out of the way.
And there are another 3.9% undecided. Toward whom will they break?
Well, one hint comes further down in the poll:
Presuming, as always, that Trafalgar’s methodology is sound, Biden is not polling well in Minnesota. One suspects that in most cases it’s due to inflation, crime, fuel prices, stagflation and oncoming war.
But Minnesota being Minnesota, you have to figure some of the disapproval is from the left.
Still – it may point to a lack of enthusiasm among Democrat voters to turn out for Walz.
Undercards: All qualifications about special sauce aside? The other Constitutional Office races might prompt some optimism, if I were more susceptible to it:
Here’s the AG race:
A five point margin with 4.5% undecided?
If – as always – accurate, that might explain Ellison’s drive to slap a coat of “tough on crime” paint over his “Anti”-fa frenching past.
State Auditor?
The only candidate who was straight up leading in the September Trafalgar poll, added a point to his margin – with six points of Pot Party candidates, and nearly 10% still undecided. I’m a little less sanguine than the numbers might warrant; this is the lowest profile race of the bunch. All those undecideds – the ones that vote, anyway – will most likely follow the top of the ticket. The question is, who is the top of the ticket – Tim Walz, or Joe Biden?
Secretary of State: Kim Crockett is a good personal acquaintance. Say what you will about the campaign she’s run – the DFL has certainly put money into running against her.
And if Trafalgar’s right, there might be a reason for that:
All that money – millions and millions of dollars from Progressive plutocrats. Steve Simon is actually having to put money into TV ads of his own – something I don’t recall seeing in any systematic way, ever.
And this – presuming, as always, Trafalgar’s secret sauce is valid – is what they got for it. two points, with almost nine undecided. And those nine will likely break toward the top of the ticket, whoever that is.
And I don’t recall even seeing a Kim Crockett ad.
So – the good news: Presuming Trafalgar is right, there is hope.
The bad news: Presuming Trafalgar is right,, it’s a razor-thin margin, and the Governor and Constitutional Officer races are going to depend heavily on:
- Whether Progs “come home” to the DFL from the weed parties, and
- Which way “undecideds” break, and
- How much effect Bidens apparent unpopularity in Minnesota drags the DFL ticket, and overcomes any corruption that might exist in the metro.
Either way, Jack was right. If you care about Minnesota not collapsing further, and you’re not volunteering time or money for a candidate, statewide or legislative? What the hell are you waiting for?
Fucking moderation.
Testimony of Randy Weaver.
On August 21, 1992, Federal marshals shot my son Samuel in the back and killed him. He was running home to me. His last words were, “I’m coming, Dad.” They shot his little arm almost off and they killed him by shooting him in the back with a 9-millimeter submachine gun. The gun had a silencer on it. He was not wanted for any crime. He did not commit any crime. The marshals killed his d0g right at his feet. He only tried to defend himself and his d0g.
Sammy was just 14 years old. He did not yet weigh 80 pounds. He was not yet 5 feet tall. The marshals who killed Sammy were grown men. They were in combat gear. They had their faces painted with camouflage. They were wearing full camouflage suits with black ninja-type hoods. They were carrying machineguns and large caliber semiautomatic pistols. They were trained to kill. Two of them were hiding behind trees and rocks in the woods where they could not be seen. The third was around a bend in the trail in thick forest. They were under direct orders from Washington to do nothing to injure the children. They were to have no contact or confrontation with me or my family. They killed him anyway in violation of their orders.
On August 22, 1992, completely without warning of any kind, an FBI sniper shot and killed my wife, Vicki. He was using a .308 caliber sniper rifle with a specially weighted barrel and a 10-power scope. He was using match grade ammunition. He had years of training to kill. I heard him testify at the trial that he wanted to kill. He shot my wife in the head and killed her. She was not wanted for any crime. There were no warrants for her arrest. At the time she was gunned down, she was helpless. She was standing in the doorway of her home. She was holding the door open for me and Sara and for Kevin Harris. She was holding Elishe a our 10-month-old baby girl, in her arms. As the bullet crashed through her head, she slumped to her knees, holding Elisheba tightly so she would not drop her. We took the baby from her as she lay dead and bleeding on our kitchen floor.”
And today, they’re arresting men for praying in front of Planned Parenthood abattoirs. They’re kicking down doors of people who’s cell phones pinged anywhere in the Washington DC area on Jan 6. They’re sending SWAT teams to arrest 70/year old men. They’re rifling through the panty drawers of the former President of the USA.
But hey…let’s keep it in perspective. Ukraine supports homosexuals; they need our support, even if that means nuclear war.
I remember guys like Swiftee from junior high. Thankfully most of them grew out of that stage by their sophomore year.
Emery on October 23, 2022 at 2:00 pm said:
“Whatever the results in Michigan (or any other state, regardless of the ruling party) you can’t say that [RCP’s] methodology was wrong. Or right.”
Exactly. That was what MBerg’s post is about.
your comments, Emery, can be depended on to be banal, or trivial, or non-sensical.
Not good for the regime.
New York, New England Ration Heating Oil Even Before Peak Winter
And of course under Biden mommas still can’t feed their babies: Formula shortage has improved in the US but still poses challenges for many
So . . . just to keep y’all up to date, since Slow Joe Biden took office, we have:
-A humiliating defeat in Afghanistan.
-Land war in Europe.
-Record setting inflation.
-Ongoing baby formula shortage.
I have this odd feeling that even if Slow Joe runs for reelection in 2024, he will not run on his record.
Bot boy Emery still hasn’t learned that whenever DemoCommies are in trouble, 98% of polls oversample DemoCommies in order to skew the results to scare Republicans into not voting.
Blade;
Those keyboard warriors have been bullies all of their lives, whether in their neighborhoods or schools. They are all sociopaths and narcissists.
John,
Proving that Minnesota has been governed by morons, other states do just fine without income taxes. In Texas, they collect royalties from the oil companies for every barrel pumped from the ground and which fund the infrastructure projects, along with some toll roads. Property taxes are high though.
Alaska also collects royalties, which, along with the fuel tax, fund infrastructure and every resident gets a rebate check annually.
Florida had higher property and gas taxes, but airport and port fees for all of the cruise lines, make up a big chunk of required funds.
I’m surprised that the DemoCommie state gubmint hasn’t thought of taxing Polymet. At least, I don’t recall ever seeing any proposals to do so. Sadly, they serve the gloBULL warming crowd to get that sweet campaign money.
true boss but instead of looking for more things to tax so we can fund more government operations i am thinking of cutting government operations so we can live within our reduced budget of no income tax
stop funding every entity on this list
https://mn.gov/portal/government/state/state-supported/
stop funding many of the entities on this list
https://mn.gov/portal/government/state/agencies-boards-commissions/
minnesota education spending is top third of the nation but academic performance is bottom third what are we getting for our money spent on department of education maybe shutter it and let local school boards decide
i am open to more ideas to cut spending but not open to more ideas to raise taxes we are taxed enough already
MP, add the following to your list. It’s like trucks and trains run on air. But we have money and resources to stoke nuclear war.
US Has Only 25 Days of Diesel Supply; Shortage Could Cripple Economy
I’m sure Mayor Pete will be right on that diesel shortage, JPA. Unless, you know, he has to go on maternity leave.
Bikebubble really gets a case of red ass when we laugh at his soul mate, rAT.
😂🤡
☝️Always remember put down the glass…
https://twitter.com/alvinfoo/status/1584409409161027584?s=20&t=kwx6rOMuS728J-7MXxrDYA
Going back to the topic, I can see two reasons why polling will always be guesswork.
1) The ability of political parties to micro-target voters has improved. This means that in battle ground districts or states, if a political party is confident that they have a 3 point lead on the opposing party, they are able to divert cash to other candidates. So you will get more races where the final result is close to the margin of error in public polling.
2) Early voting. The guy or doll who answers the phone says that if the election were held today he would vote for candidate X may have actually cast his vote two weeks earlier for candidate Y.
This your daughter, rAT?
If a politician wants to campaign in my area, it should be because they value the people of my area, rather than because they value *the votes* of my area.
If a politicians wants to hold a particular position, it should be because they believe in that position, rather than just because it polls well for them among a certain demographic.
Poll-based decision-making is a horrific way to govern, and has no place in a Republic. There’s only one poll that matters, and that’s the election.
if a political party is confident that they have a 3 point lead on the opposing party, they are able to divert cash to other candidates
MP, you obviously don’t know cocaine mitch. That, and ability to micro shift focus can only be practiced by one party. The other isn’t able to do that because of Big Tech interference, see suit against Scroogle.
If a politician wants to campaign in my area, it should be because they value the people of my area, rather than because they value *the votes* of my area.
jajajajajajajaja… BN, you are so naive… ( /sarcasm )
If a politicians wants to hold a particular position, it should be because they believe in that position, rather than just because it polls well for them among a certain demographic.
Yep, politicians in a democracy shouldn’t care about votes in a democracy.
Got anything else stupid to say, Emery? Yes you do:
Poll-based decision-making is a horrific way to govern, and has no place in a Republic. There’s only one poll that matters, and that’s the election.
Congressman want to be reelected. It’s kind of their purpose in life.
Since 1964 reelection rates have ranged from a low of 85% (1970) to a high of 98.3% (1998).
I will make this prediction about the mid term elections: if the dems get their butts handed to them (as current polling indicates they will), all the people who have been pronouncing the words “our democracy” just as an old-time preacher would pronounce the words “the Bible” will suddenly decide that democracy is really no way to run a country. We need instead, they will say, rule by professional bureaucrats and experts.
Dullee, that’s some degenerate from Russia, just like the degenerate TV host Anton Krasovsky, who argued that Ukrainian children who objected to rule by Muscovites should be drowned in a river.
Gosh, all that talk about degeneracy from you, Swiftee, but I think you really ought to look up the word “projection”.
We need instead, they will say, rule by professional bureaucrats and experts.
MP, I would argue we are already there and until swamp is drained, NOTHING will change no matter who rules. There needs to be public tar and feathering, not just election results.
If you have confidence in your political predictions, you can legally lay money on them: https://www.predictit.org/
I think it’s a parimutuel setup. you buy a yes or no share for some fraction of a dollar. The payoff is $1 for every share you buy. Right now, GOP gaining control of the house and senate is running $0.65/share, so if you are confident that the GOP will take the house and senate, you can clear $0.35/share on a $0.65/share investment.
For the record I bought 100 shares of a contract that says the GOP will win control of the senate. So, I am actually putting my money where my mouth is.
Also FTR, I am usually pretty crappy at picking political winners and losers in individual races, but I am not so bad at detecting general trends.
The positions being pushed by the so called progressives and being completely accepted by the rest of the party will be shown to be electoral kryptonite on the national stage. Whenever folks with views that were center left less than ten years ago are being made to feel (or just being told outright that they are) something akin to far right bigots for having misgivings about a number of issues that are gospel according to the squeakiest wheels in the current Democrat party don’t expect those same people to give you the benefit of the doubt on the economy. You can’t insult your way to victory.
I’m hopeful that a moderate shellacking next month (lose House, hold Senate?) leads to some introspection for 2024 and a genuine pivot away from the blue hair brigade. There’s fertile ground in the center.
lol…look at Bikebubble jump to rAT’s defense!
You’re right, Mr. Bubble, it was in Russia. Probably why she got shit canned. In the States United for Buttsex and Pedophilia, she’d have been given a big raise and a job as school nurse for kindergartener’s…oh wait, no female benis.
Nevermind.
Democrat: “You Trumpies who think that Biden’s election was rigged are delusional!”
Me: “Can men get pregnant?”
Democrat: “Of course!”
Oh, look, Dullee acts like he’s in junior high. No insult intended to blowhard jerks in junior high, mind you. Really, Dullee, any prospects for you growing up enough not to throw sexual innuendos around like that? (and then, maybe you can stop your anti-semitic and racist remarks?)
Writing as the father of two RNs, I guarantee you that if a U.S. based nurse had been caught in her underwear behind a clear plastic smock, HR would be involved, and not in a positive way. And precisely what an attractive female nurse in a state of dishabille being seen by older males would have to do with pedophilia or homosexuality is beyond me.
I bought the “GOP controls senate” shares @ $0.65, it’s already gone up to $0.66, I’m going to let it ride.
Remember when it was a crime to even think election was stolen? Ahhh… the good ‘ole days!
Hillary Clinton Delivers BlueAnon Rant Saying Republicans Are Going to ‘Literally’ Steal the Election
I don’t like Biden and find him disingenuous but during the peak of the pandemic, citizens wanted relief and he responded and that relief plus exogenous factors created inflation, from which people also want relief. The US is becoming just like European nations, expecting governments to turn on a dime, and when that proves impossible, flip flopping and voting the other guys in. The West has lost the will to suffer the short-term pain needed for long-term solutions. That gets compounded by the fact that the average citizen can’t understand the role he or she has played in the genesis of the problem and most of us question the ability and willingness of our elected officials to make intelligent yet painful decisions regardless of political consequences. In a sense we get the leaders we deserve.
“Writing as the father of two RNs”
*Blink* Blink*
Hahahahaahaaaaaa! Do you and rAT get your nurses together and pawdy?
Hahahahahaahaha!
I guarantee you that if a U.S. based nurse had been caught in her underwear behind a clear plastic smock, HR would be involved, and not in a positive way.
~ Bikebubble
Bwaaaahahahahahahahahahahaa! Hahahahahahahaahahahahaha! Staaaaaahp! You’re killing me!!! Hahahahahahahaaha!
Mr. Bubble, be sure and stick with the video at least until the negro flips you off!
Hahahahahahahahaaha!
All of Biden’s problems were created by Joe Biden.
Joe Biden created these problems because he lacks the intelligence needed for the office and he has no skill that can take its place. Trump’s instincts were good, for example. Biden’s instincts are terrible.
Biden was elected as a moderate and allowed himself to be talked into making a hard left turn, with the narrowest of majorities in the house and senate.
Two examples of Biden’s bad management:
1) Biden committed early to choosing a black woman as his running mate. When the time came to actually name her, he was down to choosing between Kamala and Abrams. He chose Kamala but Abrams would have been just as bad.
2) Biden selected Mayor Pete to be his secretary of transportation. Buttagieg was a diversity pick with no relevant experience at a time when transportation issues were foreseen as the pandemic ended and supply chains were restarted. In any case, during the worst of the transportation crisis, Buttagieg was discovered to be off on maternity leave.
This is simple incompetence. I would bet a dollar that Slow Joe didn’t know that Buttagieg was on vacay until well into the transportation crisis.
Biden cannot admit he wrong, even to himself. He should have fired half of his staff by now. Instead he has fired no one. Biden actually believes everything is just fine.
And, if the dems lose the house or senate in the mid terms, Biden is the lamest of ducks. With an uncooperative house or senate, Biden will not be able to move legislation. He will have no lifeline to pull him out of the hole that he (and the democrats) find themselves in. Biden will be pressured to announce that he will not run in 2024.
But even in this scenario, Slow Joe Biden’s deep idiocy still f*cks his party because Kamala will expect to replace him in 2024, and her popularity is even lower than Biden’s.
My favorite scenario is that Kamala resigns and Joe appoints Hunter Biden as his new veep. After all, Slow Joe said that Hunter is the smartest guy he knows.
I don’t mind Biden s***wing over the Democratic Party, but I sure hope and pray that he doesn’t end up doing the same to the nation as a whole.
He chose Kamala but Abrams would have been just as bad.
My friend lives in ATL. Due to MSM blackout (pardon the pun), we are only aware of the 1/100000000 of the shit Abrams is on record saying. The stupidity of that walking, talking disaster is only surpassed by the gravity field she generates and of course stupidity of the resident troll and wiki-bots.
Another reason why Biden is so f*cked: if the GOP controls congress after the mid terms, every elected GOP senator and congressman will know that they were elected to do everything possible to stymie whatever nuttiness Slow Joe and his controllers have planned.
Might be some Wisconsin triaging to be done on the predictit site. Ron Johnson win shares are 84 cents, but Michels win shares are only 64 cents. It’s hard to believe that anyone would check the box for Johnson but not for Michels. They both support the same policies and are equally Trumpy.
Trump endorses Scott Jensen, Kim Crockett in Minnesota races
https://www.startribune.com/trump-endorses-republican-kim-crockett-in-minnesota-secretary-of-state-race/600218908/
This should seal the deal on their defeat. I don’t think this is what the MN GOP wanted, but we all know Trump doesn’t care about that. Now for better or worse they’re both tied to him.
Say rAT? Say Hi