The DFL’s No Good, Very Bad Day (Part I): Polled
By Mitch Berg
It was a rough day for the DFL yesterday. One we’ll be talking about on Saturday at some length.
First: a Trafalgar poll showed the Governor’s race tied, and Jim Schultz and Ryan Wilson ahead in the Attorney General and Auditor’s races:
After the cold bucket of water from SUSA three weeks ago – showing the whole GOP ticket hopelessly out of the running – this poll is…bracing?
Governor:
And the news down-ticket is even better. Kim Crockett solidly in the running for Secretary of State:
Ryan Wilson has nosed ahead of Julie “White Claw” Blaha – of whom more below:
And nosing into “shock the world” territory, the poll shows Jim Schultz leading Keith Ellison:
I haven’t seen crosstabs – more on Trafalgar’s reliability below – but if those stack up, it’ll explain why the DFL and ABM’s TV ads are getting so shrill-sounding. With public opinion polling, the devil is always in the details; sampling, turnout models, methodology, all of them can distort numbers, and we really won’t know until election night for real, anyway.
But If these are close, I can’t wait to hear about Angie Craig’s internal polls .
If the chorus of calumny from DFLers about the Trafalgar poll (which Nate Silver rates as an “A” for methodology and accuracy) shows us one thing, it’s that Minnesota DFLers aren’t used to getting bad news. They do it with all the grace of toddlers who don’t get their ice cream cone.
Speaking of law and order, that brings us to the next story:
September 21st, 2022 at 11:03 am
First, we’ve seen this movie before: issue a dire poll to stir up the base to come out and to build an expectation that it is a close race so cheat margin is smaller.
Third: … is there a third?
September 21st, 2022 at 11:20 am
Most folks don’t realize how much damage carpenter ants can do to an Oak tree. Shocking, really.
September 21st, 2022 at 12:15 pm
The Socialist Workers Party scored 0.1%? Wow!! They are on a roll.
Question: has there ever been a worker in the Socialist Workers Party?
September 21st, 2022 at 5:02 pm
I hope I didn’t skew anything, but I had a pollster knock on the door Monday night, in some official looking red vest and wording I can’t remember but sounded kind of “proggy”. Wanted to know who I was going to vote for for Guber.
I asked, “Do you have a box for ‘F-off?”, as I closed the door.
September 22nd, 2022 at 10:37 am
The polling I find most illuminating is fundraising.
Walz—total raised: $6,310,606.13
Jensen—total raised: $2,258,473.5
The Walz campaign reports: $4,980,781 cash on hand.
The Jensen campaign reports: $580,727 cash on hand.
September 22nd, 2022 at 11:28 pm
[…] Tank: Rick Scott & Others Call Out FDA For Ignoring Baby Formula Applications Shot In The Dark: The DFL’s No Good, Very Bad Day Part I: Polled, The DFL’s No Good, Very Bad Day Part II: Police On My Back, and The DFL’s No Good, […]
October 21st, 2022 at 10:52 am
[…] the intervening weeks between the SUSA poll and a Trafalgar poll that showed the governor’s race at five points, things got a little brighter – a poll with a history of measuring Republican turnout […]