Most of the hard, empirical realizations I’ve had as a result of this blog started as satirical, sardonic or otherwise flippant remarks that turned out, to my amazement, to be true.
The canon of “Berg’s Law” is the closest I’ve got to a “famous” example.
Less flippant? My ever-more-frequent observation that Democrat politicians can tell “their” voters pretty much anything that suits them, because their base just doesn’t do critical thinking.
Case in point: the Administration apparently wants to borrow a page from Elizabeth Warren, and have the economy “identify” as healthy:
In 1984, the regime released the news that the chocolate rationwas being cut from 35 grams to 25 grams, by announcing that it was actually an increase from 20 grams. Maybe the people knew better, maybe they didn’t, maybe they just shunted the truth aside out of self-interest.
Not sure this is the same pathology – but I can’t think of a better one.
Buying gold today.
Speaking of lying eyes:
Monkeypox in Western countries is isolated to sodomites, and women who dally with sodomites. It’s a non-lethal AIDS.
Now, two children have contracted it. One in…wait for it…California and the other a “noncitizen”
Authorities are investigating these transmissions, but assure us there is nothing to see here. They have no choice, really. If it comes to light that a boy is being raped by his adoptive daddies, it could set the MAP campaign back years.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/22/health/monkeypox-children-vaccine/index.html
They’re circling the wagons to protect the progressive left, as usual.
Why does this matter? Democrats, the left, do these things all the time. This is just another. Were the definition for recession not changed and a recession acknowledged, what would be different?
Honest to god, these gotcha politics are just so petty.
The Biden administration may be the most inept administration history.
No one in the Biden administration is fired for their incompetence or for fomenting disasters.
Blinken, Buttagieg, Yellen, all should be gone. There isn’t an iota of competence between them.
That’s why I think that Jill Biden is actually in charge. The Biden administration seems to be run by a person with no idea how politics works. Since there were never any mistakes made, no one needs to go, says President 36%.
If Biden restarted the XL pipeline, made noises about encouraging oil and refinery development, took some bold action on the southern border, and promised a crackdown on street criminals, he might salvage the mid terms. He doesn’t have to DO anything, just make speeches and appoint useless “czars.” But he is too stupid to do it.
So, barring any big change in the political outlook, his party will lose the house and maybe the senate.in November. He may well be forced to resign by his own party, if the dems take a real beating. This would throw their party into complete disarray, just in time to deal with may be an aggressive GOP house, a resurgent Trump, and the crippling of the dem’s left flank.
It’s like captain of the Titanic sees he’s headed for an iceberg but refuses to change course because, dammit, he’s not a navigator and all the best navigators told him that this was the best possible course.
“Yes! We Have No Bananas”
They think that they can win by gaslighting harder: https://defiantamerica.com/screenshots-a-lot-of-honest-us-citizens-think-joe-biden-is-one-of-the-best-presidents-in-the-country-right-now-but-are-they-real/
^ Nice find, MP.
I’m confused by people objecting to using NBER to call recessions rather than two quarters of negative GDP growth. Everyone refers to the pandemic recession the NBER called in March 2020 but there were not two quarters of negative growth then.
I mean this is kinda funny to be honest. 👇
Larry Summers on U.S. economic outlook:
33% odds of stagflation
33% odds of recession
33% rapid growth, no surge in inflation
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-20/summers-says-u-s-facing-worst-macroeconomic-policy-in-40-years
Recession Measures and NBER
“The NBER’s definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/07/recession-measures-and-nber.html
You don’t have to go very far, they redefined the word “vaccine” just recently, no? And what about “marriage” earlier? And “man” and “woman”. Why not “recession” – you sound surprised!
Oh, that’s interesting, Emery. NBER called a recession in March 2020 without two quarters of declining GDP when Trump was President, but now that we’ve apparently got two quarters of declining GDP when Biden is President, they’re not calling it?
Gosh, why on earth would anybody object to NBER’s methodology? Just because it appears they’re putting their fingers on the scale?
What are you trying to measure and why? Has it changed recently?
To an average guy, the official definition is meaningless.
If you want a better idea of how the economy is doing, look at measures of consumer confidence.
c’mon MP! Consumers are dumb to realize what’s going on and how good they have it! Just ask any libturd!
As the saying goes, “All models are wrong, but some are useful”.
Economic modeling was developed to make Astrology look respectable.
Models…Schmodels…talk to your neighbors, that’ll tell you about the sentiment of where the economy is. Talk to the guy next to you at the gas pump and you’ll get a indication of where they might think we are economy wise. Ask anyone of them if they voted for the lying, criminal, poser in the WH and it’s unlikely any will admit. 81 million (?) votes for the demented SOB ? Not by any show of hands today!
Emery, models are made by corrupt, morally bankrupt criminals and liars in the DemoCommie party to cover their incompetence and ignorance.
boss, just ask Mann about models
Models are exercises of human imagination. They constantly need correction against empirical data.
Wisdom comes when you realize that the reason why so many academics in the soft sciences are resistant to designing a feedback mechanism for their models is because they know that their models don’t work.
The inaccuracies of the model exposed by collecting data and comparing it to modeled data is an error signal. It shows that the original modelers were wrong in significant ways. No one likes to be proven wrong.
For example, during the covid outbreak, epidemiologists created various models using woefully inadequate data (epidemiology is a soft science because it depends on human behavior). The epidemiologists used data that was so bad, they couldn’t even measure how bad it was. But nonetheless they used that data to create imaginative recommendations to politicians that would “slow the spread of the virus.” What it meant to “slow the spread the spread of the virus,” in terms of actual an actual, agreed upon definition, was, well, never defined.
The result has been an incalculable loss of capital and immense social damage.
All brought to you by the “experts.”
When you lose CNN…
https://www.theblaze.com/news/cnn-panel-mocks-biden-recession-definition?utm_source=theblaze-dailyAM&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily-Newsletter__AM%202022-07-27&utm_term=ACTIVE%20LIST%20-%20TheBlaze%20Daily%20AM
Swift wrote: “Buying gold today.”
Wut — did you give up on buying computer code (aka Bitcoin) for your retirement portfolio? The predominant investment thesis for Bitcoin is that someone else will take it off your hands at a higher price. That’s it.
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“The predominant investment thesis for Bitcoin is that someone else will take it off your hands at a higher price. That’s it.”
That’s basis of EVERY investment, Emery.
What the Hell is wrong with you? I have never seen a person so stupid who thought that he was so smart.
When you buy gold, you have at least two options. You can actually take possession of the gold. For argument’s sake, let’s say that the gold is krugerands. Then you have a handful of Krugerands you have to hide or otherwise protect because it is portable wealth.
The other choice you can make is to have the gold broker hold the gold for you. You haven’t purchased actual gold (no matter what the broker implies). You have instead purchased the right to take possession of the gold at a price set when you “buy” it. You haven’t bought gold, you’ve paid for a promise from the gold broker to sell it to you at a certain price, which is subject to various legal restrictions. You don’t “own gold.”
The depth of Emery’s ignorance has never been plumbed.
Money, remember, is a means of account, a means of storage of value, and a means of exchange. It’s value is in its usefulness to achieve some objective.
Anyways, if you are really worried about the collapse of civilization a better investment than gold would be cases of pork and beans. You can’t eat gold. If civilization truly collapsed, you might find yourself reluctant to trade a case of pork and beans for a krugerand.