37 thoughts on “Compare And Contrast

  1. Wow. Full page ad. Professionally designed website. Lotta money behind that “org”.

    Seems odd tho’. The other day JD wrote that he had called the dealership and they said flat out, no, that’s not approved and using E15 will void his warranty. But this GrowthEnergy.org website claims
    The Department of Energy tested 86 vehicles for a total of six million miles using E15 without a single fuel-related problem. In 2011, it was approved by the EPA for all vehicles 2001 and newer – nearly 9 out of 10 cars on the road today. And many automakers – including all the Big Three – now explicitly warranty E15 for all new models.

    Somebody seems to lying. I suggest that JD just send a link to this website to his dealership to explain why they’re wrong.

  2. Well, I can tell you this. My company fleet car is a 2017 Jetta. I can’t use more than 10% ethanol or warranty will be voided.

    Further, the Hyundai/Kia and Mitsubishi engines don’t like ethanol.

  3. So, if there are food riots, we can blame Biden, Regan, Klobuchar, and Craig?

  4. Ethanol concentrations greater than 10% are destructive to many rubber and plastic components historically used in fuel systems until around 2000 when the “FlexFuel” vehicles started to appear. These “FlexFuel” rated vehicles generally had fuel systems made out of stainless steel and newer formulas of plastic and rubber that could handle up to 85% ethanol. These newer materials were, of course, more expensive and so were not used “fleet-wide” but rather only on models that the manufacturer felt would be paid for by the end user – these models were ones typically sold to Fed and State governments as “fleet” vehicles.

  5. None of the mountain distillers in my neck of the woods will warranty their product for use in a combustion engine.

  6. jdm, I don’t know if the service advisor was correct, I only know what the service advisor told me on the phone. I’ve got a 10 year 100,000 mile engine warranty with only 60,000 miles used . . . I’m not interested in risking a third of my warranty to bail out the Lesko Brandon administration from its short-signed policy mistakes. Your mileage my differ.

    I wonder what a full-page four-color ad in the Strib costs in the run-up to an election? Should that be considered an ‘in kind’ contribution to Angie Craig’s re-election campaign?

  7. They should start fermenting marijuana.

    Regular $2.25
    ‘High’ test $2.75
    Dank $3.50

  8. JD, I wasn’t criticizing you. I thought I was being clever and sarcastic by suggesting you tell the service advisor what the GrowthEnergy site is saying. Because I’m sure he’d see the error of his and his company’s ways (trying to be clever and sarcastic again).

  9. Ethanol has about half the energy of gasoline. Half the milage. Half the base cost. So cut your product with an inferior one and sell it at full price, hmmm sounds like a drug deal. So we pay more and get less while the farmers grow a crop to lower our mileage and boost oil company profits? Anyone learned yet how ethanol destroys your motorcycle or chainsaw motor . . . look for the white oxides in the fuel bowl, or wonder why it won’t start after a winter’s storage.

    Agribusiness has consolidated into huge farms owned and run by very few ‘farmers’. These subsidies aren’t going to Joe Farmer, but to a few select and influential political donors.
    Ethanol was a pre-fracking (let’s leave that discussion aside for another day) short term fix when we “Needed” to stretch our fuel supply. Now? Nope, we don’t. What we might need is to lower the feedstock prices for our animals to make our feed competitive on the world market. Exports good. Farm subsidies . . . not so much. The free-market is generally right, give it some free rein.

  10. Regarding the DOEnergy’s tests, it strikes me that if I want to test the likelihood of high ethanol gasoline causing any number of problems in a car’s engine/fuel system, I’m going to test a reasonable sample of the same powertrain–say 20-30 with E15 and 20-30 with E10–and run them for around 100k miles, monitoring for problems. Then I’m going to tear them down and take a good look at seals, gaskets, engine wear, and the like.

    I know for sure that the Detroit 3, having done a lot of development for flex fuel, have done this and they can tell you exactly what parts tend to degrade on a steady diet of E15. They most likely also can tell you about how often fuel supplies will exceed this amount and cause more problems.

    On the flip side, the DOE has just confessed that they have not done due diligence in this matter. So I’m going to trust the automakers on this one.

  11. We make regular trips to Iowa from the Twin Cities. In Iowa it can be hard to find non-ethanol gas, so our habit is to fill up in Albert Lea on the way down. A tank of gas will typically last us until we hit Albert Lea on the way back as well.

  12. -1.4% GDP QT1. Atlanta Fed now seeing 0% GDP growth for QT2

    2 consecutive quarters of – GDP is considered recessionary. Turns out stealing elections has consequences.

    Anyone remember “Build Back Better!”? lol

  13. I’ve got to say — respect for Powell. He got control of the narrative. Beautifully executed 0.75% surprise move against prior guidance. Came across as in control and honest. You simply can’t stop 8% inflation without a recession and we’ll see how Powell holds up once we get there. But credit to him for clearly making the return of stable prices the overriding priority.

  14. If easy credit was the cause of inflation, the Fed’s move might make sense.

    If helicopter dumps of cash increasing the money supply was the cause, how will raising interest rates will wring that cash back out of the economy? If Putin’s war in Ukraine, Trump’s January 6th speech, oil company windfall profits, or global climate change was the cause, same question.

    I picture the Federal Reserve as a kid on a swing. He can kick his legs to go higher, he can drag his toes to go slower, but he can’t move the swing to a better neighborhood to avoid drive-by shootings. This move feels like kicking legs not because it’s the smartest option, but because it’s the Fed’s only option. I’m skeptical it will solve the problem.

  15. ^ as I wrote yesterday (apparently poorly), both easy credit and dumps of cash are to blame. But there’s more too.

  16. ^ You have to consider markets have already priced in much more tightening than the Fed has implemented. So financial tightening has already happened long before the Fed came in and it has been in place for a while now. Also, you need to talk about REAL RATES, and not just real inflation. Real rates are now positive and this is a major problem due to the record levels of public and consumer debt out there. Check BBG for consumer credit levels and delinquencies. Check corp debt levels. And I don’t need to tell you to check US government debt — again at record levels and still rising in exponential fashion.

    The higher interest payments needed to service this debt when it comes to refi’ing will consume more and more of US GDP — and the major holders of US debt: China, Japan, Europe…

    So you can very quickly see the system is built on a house of cards — or really a house of debt. Ditto to China, Europe, Japan and now even more and more EMs.

    If you have access to Bloomberg (the terminal, not the website) you can check it yourself.

    Short maturity rates vs long maturity rates is just one way.

    Another is to calculate based on bonds of the same maturity where one is a regular bond and the other is inflation indexed (e.g. a break even). So can calculate regular treasury vs BE of same maturity. Just to be clear: compare regular bond yield to BE yield with same maturity…

  17. By all means, take financial advice from an internet troll who predicted economic doom when Trump was elected. This was followed of course, by a record breaking stock market boom, record low unemployment and inflation, and a record breaking rise in the wages of working people.

  18. So play it out -l- let’s say we tip into recession. How deep? How protracted? Businesses and individuals have refinanced their debt. Businesses have cash. Banks are as well capitalized as they have ever been. There’s been no boom on Main St that needs to bust. We have 2 job openings for every 1 searcher. We can eliminate those before we need to start materially cutting into the currently employed. No recession is good, but IF we do slip into one I would suspect it is the most mild one we’ve seen in 40+ years given the starting point and just how many people are already anticipating it.

  19. Cut and past plagiarism becomes inchoate twaddle in the hands pf a nitwit.

  20. Byron York is one of the pundits on the right I listen to. He is dispassionate and data driven.
    On his podcast today, York ran through Biden’s poll numbers. Biden’s approval is below 40%, which is really, really bad for the Dems with the mid terms coming up. Biden gets no net positive on ANY of the issues important to voters or even unimportant to voters. Biden is underwater everywhere.
    The most important issue to voters is inflation, and that gets Biden his worst approval numbers 23% positive, 71% negative.
    This is an absolute catastrophe for Biden and the Dems. There is virtually nothing Biden can do to decrease inflation in the short and mid term time frames, and the midterm elections are five months away and the 2024 election is coming up in the mid term.
    Basically, Biden and the Dems are screwed. They are facing a disaster of Biblical proportions in November.
    And, this being the Biden administration, they are responding in exactly the wrong way. Slow Joe is unwilling to admit that his policies are at fault for his low poll numbers, so the Bidenites say that they do not have a policy problem, they say that they have a communications problem.
    Anyone in the Biden admin should have jumped ship when they heard this.
    Say, didn’t Psaki resign a few weeks ago?
    The problem with a “communications” response to failed policy is that it puts down ticket democrats in the position of having to support the Biden policies that have led to his poor poll numbers.
    It is a glorious dumpster fire. I suggest that Chevy Chase (as Clark Griswold) play the part of Joe Biden in the inevitable biopic. Maybe Bill Murray could play Hunter Biden?

  21. MP, you are grossly underestimating libturd’s ability to cheat. Just look what happened in Bass primary.

  22. Tim Kennedy on Rogan, talking about the colossal f*ck up of Biden’s Afghanistan surrender:
    https://youtu.be/WEHXfB8wwGk
    A reminder: no one has been fired over this. Not Milley, not Austin. The only officer to be be disciplined was Stuart Schell, a Marine officer who criticized the generals’ disgusting acquiescence to Biden’s demand to abandon our Afghan allies.
    Jesus, what a f*ck up. And we are still paying the price for Slow Joe’s F*ck up. We will be paying that price for decades.
    And another reminder that the media assured that Slow Joe, despite all actual evidence, was a foreign policy wonk and expert.

  23. Judging from the number of people telling me this isn’t the bottom and there’s worse to come, I suspect we’re close to the bottom. Just need Musk to get margin called to confirm it.

    I assume most of the SiTD investors who are now spreading doom and gloom were not smart enough to reduce positions or sell out mid/end of last year. Selling now is just too late, those guys have missed the boat in terms of positioning on the way down and will just also miss the boat on its way up.

    Long term investors should know by now that it is not a sensible strategy to sell when equity markets have fallen sharply. They rarely time a good re-entry point and the best position is to be fully invested to gain from the risk premium over time. If you do want to play markets, then sell high and buy low. In which case you should have some cash to put to work at some time. Is it now? If the Fed’s economic forecasts of weaker growth without a recession but inflation falling to well below current levels is correct, then it could be very soon. If inflation is entrenched above 3-4%, real yields could have to turn positive and the bear market in bonds and equities could last a long time. A quick recession would be a better alternative than the latter as inflation pressures would be hit by demand destruction and the markets can begin to discount the next stage of the cycle which is usually the best for equities. Take your pick.

  24. The madness at the top is causing deep uncertainty in the markets. Biden is now urging the oil companies to ramp up refining while at the same time they reduce gasoline production. How can anyone invest in an environment like that?
    Joe Biden in 2020: “No more drilling on federal lands. No more drilling, including offshore. No ability for the oil industry to continue to drill. Period.”

  25. If you have been around as long as I have, you seen these kind of days and these kind of markets before. Until the peak last January, every pullback, correction, and bear market led to another new all time high. We just happen to be in one of the bear markets right now.

  26. Woolly wrote: “The madness at the top is causing deep uncertainty in the markets.”

    Absolutely, the US economy is on a path completely separate from all of the other developed economies… clearly Biden’s fault…

    Oh, wait — high inflation everywhere, ebbing pandemic, geopolitical risks are high..

    Less of the politics more of the economics would be appreciated.

  27. Emery, let’s leave off the nonsense of things just “happening”. Reality is that the current bear market has a lot to do with a President who inherited a good economy, decided to overheat it with a huge spend-u-more plan, gave the Taliban eighty billion bucks worth of weapons, and basically shut down oil drilling while giving the green light to the Russians to invade Ukraine. At the same time, he’s stood resolutely against any measures to improve supply chain performance, like removing California emissions privileges and ending closed shop unions at ports.

    These things have causes. Let’s not pretend that they just “happened.”

  28. They don’t drill for oil in Europe.
    Really substandard snark today, Emery.

  29. Less politics, more economics? Nah, Milton Friedman is no longer in charge. Lesko Brandon is in charge, ya wanna make something of it, fat? I’ll give you what I gave Corn Pop!

  30. If Europe had oil and gas they would be turning on the taps. Why? Their only options are to buy Russian fossil fuels or starve. You know what we can do in the US? We can drill, baby, drill. The US has truly immense fossil fuel reserves, more than Saudi Arabia.
    Germany cannot influence global oil prices as a producer.
    We can.
    The only thing stopping us from doing so is Slow Joe.

  31. FACTS: Which U.S. refineries have shut since the global pandemic, and why?

    Since the onset of the global pandemic, the US has lost nearly 1 million barrels per day of oil refining capacity, with more set to be shuttered in the next few years.
    These are the plants:
    LYONDELLBASELL HOUSTON:
    CAPACITY: 263,776 barrel-per-day (bpd)
    Lyondell said in April of 2022 that it would permanently shut the refinery by year-end 2023, as it was unable to find a buyer and did not want to invest to keep the facility open.

    PHILLIPS 66 ALLIANCE, BELLE CHASSE, LA.

    CAPACITY: 255,000 bpd

    Phillips 66 said in November 2021 that it would not reopen the Alliance refinery, which was shut in mid-August ahead of Hurricane Ida. The 50-year-old refinery was severely damaged by several feet of water.

    LIMETREE BAY, ST. CROIX, USVI:

    CAPACITY: 210,000 bpd

    Limetree Bay Energy shut its St. Croix refinery due to financial problems in May 2021 after only operating for a few months, due to setbacks and environmental hazards. The refinery had already been idle for a decade.

    SHELL CONVENT, ST. JAMES, LOUISIANA

    CAPACITY: 240,000 bpd

    Shell announced in November 2020 it would be shuttering the refinery after attempts to sell the plant between July and October were unsuccessful. The refinery became unprofitable as COVID-19 spread across the US.

    MARATHON, MARTINEZ CA , AND GALLUP, NM

    CAPACITY: 161,000 bpd (Martinez); 27,000 bpd (Gallup)

    Marathon said in August 2020 that it would permanently close plants due to lower fuel demand.

    Martinez should produce 260 mln gallons/yr of renewable diesel starting in 2023.

    PHILLIPS 66 RODEO, CALIFORNIA

    Capacity: 120,200 bpd

    U.S. refiner Phillips 66 plans to fully convert its Rodeo, California, crude oil refinery into a renewable fuels plant using cooking oil and food wastes beginning in 2024. It will cease processing crude oil.

    HOLLYFRONTIER, CHEYENNE, WYOMING

    Capacity: 52,000 bpd

    HollyFrontier said in June 2020 it would convert its Cheyenne refinery into a biofuel plant that would produce 6,000 bpd of renewable diesel. The plant ceased operations the next month.

    CALCASIEU REFINING – LAKE CHARLES, LOUISIANA

    Capacity: 135,500 bpd

    Calcasieu Refining shut its Lake Charles plant in early August of 2020, according to the Louisiana Department on Environmental Quality, citing demand loss during the pandemic.

    PBF ENERGY – PAULSBORO, NEW JERSEY

    Capacity: 180,000 bpd

    PBF Energy shut most fuel units of its Paulsboro plant in November 2020 citing low fuel demand during the coronavirus pandemic. The plant has since restarted some secondary units but cited lack of VGO as inhibitor.

    https://twitter.com/LauraSanicola/status/1537888842203529223?s=20&t=-ukzqtNJ4zvxICsQlnQVoQ

  32. 🚨 Hmm — many closures announced during the Trump presidency!

    Allow me to channel some of woolly’s logic. Why did Trump make our gas so expensive?

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