Almost two weeks ago a UN-brokered ceasefire in Yemen brought a glimmer of hope for a way out of the years-long war there that according to this UNDP report has taken just under 400,000 lives.

By doing so, we found that by the end of 2021, Yemen’s conflict will lead to 377,000 deaths – nearly 60 per cent of which are indirect and caused by issues associated with conflict like lack of access to food, water, and healthcare.

The UN Special Envoy for Yemen said:

I would like to announce that the parties to the conflict have responded positively to a United Nations proposal for a two-month Truce which comes into effect tomorrow 2 April at 1900hrs. The parties accepted to halt all offensive military air, ground and maritime operations inside Yemen and across its borders; they also agreed for fuel ships to enter into Hudaydah ports and commercial flights to operate in and out of Sana’a airport to predetermined destinations in the region; they further agreed to meet under my auspices to open roads in Taiz and other governorates in Yemen. The Truce can be renewed beyond the two-month period with the consent of the parties.

The war in Yemen has become a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and much like the dog that didn’t bark, Iran’s reaction to the ceasefire announcement was upbeat despite the supposed prospect at losing its weapons training ground. Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman said:

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh has welcomed an initiative put forth by the UN chief’s special envoy for Yemen to stop military operations for two months and to allow ships carrying fuel and to partially reopen the Sanaa airport.
Khatibzadeh expressed hope that this move will be the prelude to the full lifting of the blockade on Yemen and a permanent ceasefire in order to find a political solution to the country’s crisis. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman reaffirmed Iran’s policy to support a political and humanitarian solution in Yemen, saying, “We hope that on the eve of the holy month of Ramadan, humanitarian issues will be prioritized, the ceasefire will hold and we will see an improvement in the humanitarian situation and a prisoner swap between the warring sides.”

This excellent report by Katherine Zimmerman out of the AEI’s Critical Threats project goes into detail about Iran’s involvement in Yemen.

Shared interests underpin the relationship between the Houthis and Iran and the Axis of Resistance. Houthi leaders uphold Iran’s Islamic Revolution as a model to follow, and Iran’s revisionist ideas and efforts to reshape the regional order resonate with them. They thus have found common ground with other Axis members seeking to change the status quo through force, including Hezbollah and Iraqi Shi’a militias, among others. For Iran, the Houthis initially presented an opportunity to threaten Saudi Arabia’s southern border, and Iran has led an effort to cultivate the Houthis as part of its network. The Houthis now rely on Iran and the Axis to retain certain capabilities necessary for their ongoing projection of power from Yemen and have begun to support Axis initiatives from which they do not necessarily benefit.
…
The Houthis now form an integral part of Iran’s Axis of Resistance. Iran cultivates this network to expand its own influence, leveraging its partners in pursuit of its regional objectives: expelling the United States and establishing Iranian hegemony. Members, including the Assad regime, Hezbollah, some Iraqi Shi’a militias, Hamas, PIJ, and some Bahraini militias, benefit from Iranian state support and shared resources and capabilities among Axis members. The Houthis rely on Iran and the Axis to retain certain capabilities crucial to their continued success in Yemen and have begun supporting Axis initiatives that do not necessarily benefit them directly.

In this February 2021 speech, Biden announced an end to “American support for offensive operations in the war in Yemen, including relevant arms sales.”

As players in the region deal with a disengaged United States, this ceasefire is an opportunity to clarify negotiating positions. From the Asia Times:

Iran’s expected surge following any lifting of sanctions becomes an “X” factor for all regional states, which Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt will have to handle in a different way than previously by taking into account the United States’ steady disengagement from the region.

Unlike former president Donald Trump’s administration, US President Joe Biden tends to regard the past uncritical support for the Saudi-led war as a delusional mistake. This is already a tipping point, where the Houthis will negotiate without having to surrender their weaponry. The advantage goes to the Houthis. Equally, Iran emerges as the regional player to gain the most. Its robust support for the Houthis has paid off.

If the Biden Administration buries its head in the sand when it comes to Iran’s wider aims, Zimmerman summarizes what the Administration might find when it comes up for air:

Yemen is now a single theater in a larger, regional war. The Houthis have developed extensive ties across the Axis of Resistance and have integrated Axis narratives into their own. Iran is waging proxy warfare through the Houthis, and Iran’s limited investment in them has expanded the scope of the conflict beyond Yemen’s borders. Weapons in the Houthis’ arsenal threaten Gulf states and Israel, as well as maritime traffic in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Iran and its Axis of Resistance oppose the deepening of relations between Israel and Arab states, particularly the UAE, and have signaled they will contest these developments. Understanding the Houthis only within the context of Yemen misses this shift in regional security dynamics. The United States must change its approach to securing its interests in the Middle East given the new reality of the Houthis as part of the Axis of Resistance.

This entry was posted by by Jeff Kouba on Tuesday, April 12th, 2022 at 11:00 am and is filed under World. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.