Shot in the Dark

What A Difference A Week Makes

Old And Busted, One Week Ago: Russian forces, stymied by poor logistics and fierce Ukrainian resistance, start digging in to consolidate their gains around Kyiv and Kharkhiv.

New Flavor: “We’ll ‘conduct an operational pause‘, as a sign of good faith for negotiations”.


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47 responses to “What A Difference A Week Makes”

  1. Greg Avatar
    Greg

    Could Syria be Putin’s model for the Ukraine?

    Syria was destroyed, but Asad won, that is all one needs to know. I don’t think it would bother Putin one bit if 44 million Ukrainians became refugees. In fact, maybe that is the desired outcome.

  2. Emery Avatar
    Emery

    Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics.

    We are still going to bomb you, just more over here and less over there….The blunt way of describing this is that Russia has lost the battle to take Kyiv and has withdrawn its forces to avoid further losses of men and equipment. Carving out an occupied territory in east Ukraine stretching from the Donbas to the Crimea will both give them a “victory” that Putin can sell to the Russian people and a starting point for a second attempt to conquer the whole of Ukraine. If the West wants to avoid this it will have to provide Ukraine with the kind of weapons that it is asking for and not continue to be the rabbit in Putin’s headlights.

  3. Joe Doakes Avatar
    Joe Doakes

    “I’ll stop destroying your city as a show of good faith, while you consider letting me have the eastern provinces” could be a sign of weakness in the logistical chain – no bombs getting through to the front – or it could be a negotiating tactic to generate public pressure in Ukraine to settle for half the loaf. How can I tell the difference?

  4. Blade Nzimande Avatar
    Blade Nzimande

    Carving out an occupied territory in east Ukraine stretching from the Donbas to the Crimea will both give them a “victory”

    Hmmmm….didn’t someone say that is exactly what Russia was aiming for, sometime last week? Oh yeah, it was Blade. lol…rAT, you nitwit don’t ever get therapy.

    Bad news Patriots; this year’s Mariupol Gay Pride Festival has been cancelled…indefinitely. All those poor kids, deprived of drag queen story hour thanks to those Russian butchers! Damn Them!!!! 🥵

  5. Blade Nzimande Avatar
    Blade Nzimande

    Russia has lost the battle to take Kyiv

    Time to break out the “Mission Accomplished” banner!!!! Yeeeeaaaaaa! 🎉✨🎇

  6. Emery Avatar
    Emery

    The level of credulity displayed by Swift remains depressing. Oligarchy selected Putin to destroy the elected choices of the Russian people.

    If Putin lost his actual head the Russian people would be told it wasn’t his head, and it was never lost. When a whole nation has been brainwashed in that way it can’t be un-brainwashed overnight. A long and difficult process is necessary. Just look at what Putin did to the English, and right wing America, and in both cases they still haven’t understood it for themselves yet. That kind of propaganda is very powerful.

  7. Blade Nzimande Avatar
    Blade Nzimande

    Obama selected Zelinsky to destroy the elected choices of the Ukrainian people.

    FTFY, rAT

    You do know Zelinsky was put in power through a coup, right? Right?

  8. Emery Avatar
    Emery

    Why didn’t the “canny” Putin just invade eastern Ukraine? Why did he invest so much in a failed attack on Kyiv? Why did he send massive convoys in without food or fuel? Why did he sacrifice 10,000 soldiers and 10 generals? Why did he expose the weaknesses and incompetence of his military? Why did he turn Zelenskiy and Ukrainians into heroes? Why did he alienate the markets for his fuel, ensuring that Europe would accelerate their move to a future free of Russian energy? Why did he drive western businesses out of Russia, and ensure that Russia will be an economic pariah for a generation? If Putin is so canny, why did he destroy all of his political capital, and make it likely that he will be deposed?

  9. Blade Nzimande Avatar
    Blade Nzimande

    Let’s see:
    Eastern Ukraine re-united with the Russian Federation ✅
    Land bridge to Crimea ✅
    Ukrainian dreams of NATO membership crushed ✅
    New economic alliances formed ✅

    Meanwhile, in the New World Order:
    Gasoline prices at historic high ✅
    Natural gas unobtainable ✅
    Food shortages ✅
    Auto manufacturing dead in the water ✅
    Insects promoted as food ✅
    Biden’s butt wiped ✅

    Yeah, I’d say this has worked out just as Pedo Joe promised.

  10. Blade Nzimande Avatar
    Blade Nzimande

    Come next December, there’s gonna be a lot of cold Germans. Mike Lindell needs to open some MyBlanket distribution centers. Use Promo code #LetsGoBrandon for 35% off!

  11. Blade Nzimande Avatar
    Blade Nzimande

    Come next December, there’s gonna be a lot of cold Germans. Mike Lindell needs to open some MyBlanket distribution centers. Use Promo code # LetsGoBrandon for 35% off!

  12. Blade Nzimande Avatar
    Blade Nzimande

    Come next December, there’s gonna be a lot of cold Germans. Mike Lindell needs to open some My Blanket distribution centers. Use Promo code # Lets_Go_Brandon for half off!

  13. Blade Nzimande Avatar
    Blade Nzimande

    Mike Lindell is gonna sell a metric shit ton of My Blankets in Germany next December!

  14. bikebubba Avatar
    bikebubba

    Lost in the translation by Dullee is the reality that as Moscow withdraws from Kyiv, that allows Ukrainians to pay more attention to the east. And unlike the Russians, the Ukrainians can actually drive along a road without losing their tires and running out of fuel, and they can relieve Mariupol without going to Moscow.

    Scorecard as I count it:
    Equivalent of 2-3 Russian divisions destroyed, along with a lot of equipment they really cannot spare
    75% of Russian army cannot subdue middle aged guys
    Poles and others are getting M1s and F-16s to replace MIG-29s
    The whole world knows how to blow T-72s to smithereens
    Middle class in Russia is getting done with Putin
    Western Europe is re-arming to deal with Russia
    Scandinavia is considering joining NATO
    Georgia and Belarus have not sent divisions they can ill afford to have destroyed
    Ukraine resistance has shown how to deal with nuclear powers

    Putin Delenda Est!

  15. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    BN, Zelensky was elected, his predecessor was a beneficiary of a US/EU-backed coup.

  16. Joe Doakes Avatar
    Joe Doakes

    Point of clarification, JPA.

    Zelenskyy won in 2019, when Trump was in office and the US did NOT rig the Ukrainian election.

    His predecessor, Proshenko, won in 2014 while Obama was in office and Lesko Brandon oversaw Ukrainian relations and the US did rig the election (and the ‘color revolution’ which preceeded it).

    Democrat meddling in Ukraine politics isn’t a new thing, it’s been going on for years.

  17. Emery Avatar
    Emery

    NATO should look to join Ukraine. It’s also clear that “scale back” is Russian for “Retreat”..

    The Ukrainian Officer Corps seems to be performing rather better than their Russian counterparts. The Ukrainians have had British and American officers training them for years, and the Ukrainians have also have 7-8 years of combat experience in Donbass + as many years of planning to fight off an invasion.

    Their training and doctrine has been completely changed since 2014, lots of delegating responsibility to NCO’s and privates, a winning formula against the Russian lethargic and confused top down, zero communication approach, an approach the Ukrainians had themselves until only a few years ago.

    Looking after your men, delegating responsibility down the chain, feeding, supplying and leading by example goes a long way.

  18. Blade Nzimande Avatar
    Blade Nzimande

    You are right, jpa. I stand corrected.

    The New World Order installed Arseniy Yatsenyuk as their puppet.

  19. Mitch Berg Avatar
    Mitch Berg

    The whole world knows how to blow T-72s to smithereens

    The whole world that was paying attention knew in 1982. The Israelis engaged a Syrian T72 battalion. Israeli tank fire hit nine T72s. All nine “brewed up” – had catastrophic ammunition fires, as the ammunition in the exposed autoloaders on the turret floors exploded. Out of 27 Syrian crewmen, zero survived.

    And that was when the T72’s mythology was at its peak.

  20. Blade Nzimande Avatar
    Blade Nzimande

    Thanks for the report from r/HappyNarritive, Delenda. We understand that Reddit membership has been thinned considerably since they were infiltrated by Groypers who meme’d them into going to Ukraine and getting their asses BTFU.

    lmoa

  21. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    To me, personally, fact Zelensky is still around is a mystery. He is an accidental president. He is an actor and a comedian – a very non-PC one, and a decent one. I watched most of his movies and comedy shows. One of the last things he did before becoming a president was a TV show where he played an accidental president of Ukraine, taking on corruption and insane politics of the country. He put in his name in the hat as a joke to prop up ratings for his already-successful show. How do we know it was a joke? Election was right in the middle of filming what turned out to be the last season of the show and he did not even campaign at first. The ending of the show was filmed after his election and you could see story line was changed and hurried to end the show – without Zelensky. Zelensky is not a politician, he is an actor. He also is no Reagan and did not have any political experience, other than as part of the TV show he wrote himself. Zelensky is acting right now, but this is no comedy and he did not write the script. Who did?

  22. Joe Doakes Avatar
    Joe Doakes

    ” . . . and the Ukrainians have also have 7-8 years of combat experience in Donbass . . . .”

    Now, that’s an interesting admission. The war has been going on 8 years?

    That means Putin was correct when he said the Eastern Provinces wanted to break away from Ukraine to join Russia; was correct when he said Ukraine was attacking the civilians in Donbass; and was correct when he said Russia was invading the Eastern Provinces to protect the civilians of Donbass from their own government and thereby vindicate their right to self-determination.

    For a lying liar who lies all the time, Putin seems to have been correct about quite a lot. What else has he gotten right?

  23. Emery Avatar
    Emery

    It is highly unlikely Putin welcomes NATO’s unprecedented unity and the degradation of Russia’s military in terms of reputation, equipment, morale, and casualties.

    If Putin were not miscalculating, it is unlikely we’d be seeing resignations from his inner circle, dissent on Russian state TV, and arrests of Russian military brass and spy chiefs. The notion Putin is playing 3D chess here seems like contrarianism for contrarianism’s sake, a reluctance to accept that the conventional wisdom on Putin’s alleged strategic genius was wrong. Right now, Putin is losing. All it took was a smart, strong American president willing to call his bluff.

  24. bikebubba Avatar
    bikebubba

    Joe, regarding “so the eastern provinces want to break away”, that’s only sort of true at best. Some there certainly do want to be ruled by Moscow, but the bigger factor–and the source for the armored vehicles they’re using–is the Russian government doing the same thing they’ve been doing since 1917, fostering revolutions in countries where they could find a vocal Communist minority. They used the 2014 expulsion of a pro-Moscow President of Ukraine as a pretext.

    Mitch, good point on the T-72, and how 40 years after the weakness of their autoloading system was demonstrated, the Russians still haven’t fixed it. (in fact, I believe a related system is still being used in the T-80 and T-90) Oopsie, they got a real “Ivan-cooker” there, don’t they?

  25. bikebubba Avatar
    bikebubba

    Emery, you mean “all it took was a strong, smart Ukrainian President to call his bluff”. He was smart enough to realize that the Russian soldiers really didn’t want to be there, and that his people would take up arms to take them on.

    I give Biden credit (along with the rest of Europe) for sending some weapons and aid to Ukraine, but by and large,Biden has been a disaster in terms of talking softly and carrying a big stick, coming closest to the opposite.

  26. Joe Doakes Avatar
    Joe Doakes

    Maybe. Or maybe we’re seeing Putin win exactly what he wanted – the eastern provinces and coast – while leaving Ukraine’s military in ruins and NATO stymied, with the side benefit of an old-fashioned purge to get rid of worthless time-serving suck-ups who will be replaced by hard-core Putin supporters.

    Sure it cost him a lot of peasant lives and a bunch of obsolete equipment. Is that something that would have bothered Tsar Nicholas? Josephy Stalin? Any of the great leaders of Mother Russia? Then why should it bother Putin?

    Americans keep viewing Russia through lenses of individual freedom and democratic self-determination, which is why we think Putin is a failure. Nobody else sees Russia that way, not even Russians.

  27. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    JD, your words are wasted on the those who sleep, eat and drink western propaganda. Does anyone find it odd that NS1 is still operating? What would happen if Ivan started to REALLY control Bartertown? Who wrote the script?

  28. bikebubba Avatar
    bikebubba

    Joe, I just don’t see things that way. Far from being destroyed, Ukraine’s military is learning that they can hold off the #2 power on earth and even start offensives against them. If and when Russia truly does withdraw from the north, that newly confident Ukrainian military takes a trip south with a bunch of captured T-72s–and Russia’s ability to get their own forces there is dubious at best.

    And yes, NATO is stymied by the fear of nuclear war, just as they have been since 1949. Putin didn’t need to do anything for that, let alone sacrifice divisions.

  29. Blade Nzimande Avatar
    Blade Nzimande

    Wait…are T-72’s obsolete junk, or golden war booty and the key to Ukraine winning?

    Not gonna lie; sorting out propaganda from muddled Patriots is a lot like reading Hindu.

    It’s a pity the Russian military doesn’t read SiTD; commentators rAT and Delinda have solutions for all their logistical, tactical and political problems.

  30. Blade Nzimande Avatar
    Blade Nzimande

    Americans keep viewing Russia through lenses of individual freedom and democratic self-determination

    Most, but not all Americans view everything through whatever lenses our lying media hangs on them.

    Know who’s reporting looks most legit? Al Jazeera.

    They’ve been covering the Ukrainian situation dispassionately, and their stories are later backed by multiple sources.

    Ironic, isnt it?

  31. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    Hmmm, for a nation of obsolete T72s, they have operational hypersonic missiles. What’s a propaganda machine to make of that?

  32. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    “Both China and Russia are ahead of the U.S. on this relatively new, and quite indefensible method of warhead delivery,” Guilfoyle wrote. “When it comes to hypersonic delivery, the U.S. is quite possibly the ‘near-peer.’”

    That’s right, Russia is losing… There is no truth, just propaganda. On both sides. And nobody is willing to believe their own eyes and ears and sift through information logically. Days is only day if der Komissar says so.

  33. Joe Doakes Avatar
    Joe Doakes

    “Ukraine’s military is learning that they can hold off the #2 power on earth and even start offensives against them.”

    I hope you’re right. A couple of months ago, I was assured there was no point in owning a gun because an armed populace had no chance of standing up to a military force equipped with jets and tanks and nuclear weapons. If the scruffy Ukrainians can do it with 10,000 hastily-handed-out AK’s, 100 million Americans can do it with their own rifles. That’s reassuring.

  34. bikebubba Avatar
    bikebubba

    JPA, yes, the T-72 is junk against an army with anti-tank missiles like the Javelin. Guess what country doesn’t have that system in good numbers? So it’s a better bet against the country that’s invading Ukraine. And yes, the Russians are claiming hypersonic missiles–accuracy TBD of course. I think the phrase for “nuclear artillery with dubious accuracy” is “war crime”. But that doesn’t change the fact that the T-72 is junk.

    And yes, Joe, it is good news that motivated citizens can duke it out with armies. OK, it helps if those armies can’t keep good tires on their armored vehicles, or keep them fueled, but yes, it’s great news.

  35. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    the Russians are claiming hypersonic missiles–accuracy TBD of course

    bike, you astound me how far down the propaganda well you have descended. Even western propaganda machine admitted Russians have, and used, hypersonic missiles. And yet you still say “Russians are claiming”.

    Hey, I bet you still think Azov Nazi sympathies are alleged. Never mind them flying a nazi flag and origin of their insignia. Oh, you did the research on insignia, but it does not appear you stopped for a minute to apply logic and consider, “why would a fighting unit in Ukraine use GERMAN symbol, especially when the rest of the Ukranian forces use трезубец?”. Hmmm…

    That’s the difference between you and me – you suspend all disbelief, refuse to apply logic and swallow western propaganda hook, line and sinker, while I question everything and do not blindly trust the pablum being fed.

  36. Blade Nzimande Avatar
    Blade Nzimande

    jpa, Delinda believes that the Russian offensive failed because they didn’t rotate the tires on their APV’s, and had no idea tanks need fuel. Further, he believes the “overweight, middle age” Ukrainian army has captured tanks in large numbers, brought along some hose to siphon in some fuel and are off for a counter offensive.

    Delinda is obviously tapped directly in on Predator drone overflights, and is totes credible.

    Russian hyper-sonic missiles? Pffft…c’mon man.

  37. AllenS Avatar
    AllenS

    Yes, Zelenskyy is an actor and a comedian, and he is far superior to J Robinette Biden who has been in government for 49 years and is about the most incompetent person to ever serve.

  38. Blade Nzimande Avatar
    Blade Nzimande

    JPA, yes, the T-72 is junk against an army with anti-tank missiles like the Javelin. Guess what country doesn’t have that system in good numbers?

    Oh. Well, what does your intel say are “good numbers”, Delinda? Since Russians don’t even know how to fuel their own armored vehicles, I guess there’s no worry they’ll be making their own version next week…probably. But they evidently have enough to blow a few off in training.

    “Russian Military Shows-Off Captured Javelin, NLAW Anti-Tank Missiles, And Other Western Gear”

    “The Russian military has released footage showing Donbass troops training using captured Javelin and NLAW anti-tank missile systems.

    “The captured Ukrainian military equipment and the weapons of Western countries is being transferred to the units of the People’s Militia of the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics for use in hostilities against Ukrainian nationalists,” the Ministry of Defense said in a statement on Wednesday. “

  39. Mammuthus Primigenesis Avatar
    Mammuthus Primigenesis

    I don’t like to label politicians as strategic geniuses. There haven’t been many, maybe Napoleon was the last one, Maybe Eisenhower. Putin was a KGB guy, never a general.
    It is possible, maybe even likely, that Putin, Zelinskyy, and Biden are all poor strategists with no real idea what they are doing.
    Call me a cynic.

  40. Blade Nzimande Avatar
    Blade Nzimande

    Eyes on Severodonetsk. Ukraine has expended massive material, men and armor trying to hold it.

  41. Emery Avatar
    Emery

    That’s the problem with autocrats/dictators, it’s pretty well established that the best organizations operate with transparency, openness and upward feedback where managers trust those working for them. The exact opposite of a dictatorship.

  42. AllenS Avatar
    AllenS

    Mammuthus Primigenesis said:
    “It is possible, maybe even likely, that Putin, Zelinskyy, and Biden are all poor strategists with no real idea what they are doing.”

    Zelinskyy’s strategy is to get his country to survive the onslaught from
    Russia. He does not belong lumped together with two losers, Putin and Biden.

  43. bikebubba Avatar
    bikebubba

    JPA, I stand by my comments about Azov. Certainly some are wearing Nazi symbols, but the batallion only originated in 2014, when Russia invaded, and the statements I’ve seen about the batallion are long on rhetoric and short on evidence. Apart from fighting the “little green men”, the worst they’ve been accused of is having evicted Gypsies from a camp near Kyiv. It strikes me that a lot of the allegations seem to be being fed to credulous journalists by agents of Moscow.

    Regarding your claim that I’m hopelessly brainwashed and not paying attention to evidence, see above, and also see your crazy claim that somehow being denied access to McDonald’s and IBM products amounts to a Holodomor on the Russian people. I can understand some antipathy on your part to Ukraine given the role of some Ukrainians in the Holocaust, but I would hope that that antipathy would be tempered by the reality of very real genocide by Russia in Chechnya and Syria–and now Ukraine.

    You want genocidal bigots, look to Moscow, not Kyiv.

  44. bikebubba Avatar
    bikebubba

    Blade, I think I’m going to go with the sources I’ve got rather than your favorite Al-Jezeera, which apparently cannot even get their internet security right enough so that sane IT departments allow it to be shown. From the quick search I’ve done on some of your claims, seems you’re listening mostly to Kremlin Katerina for your news.

  45. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    Putin threatens to turn off Europe’s gas supplies TOMORROW if countries refuse to pay in roubles

    Well, Bartertown is about to go dark. And end of a petrodollar as we know it? Let’s impose MORE sanctions! THAT will show them! ZERO FUCKING DIPLOMACY! This, and 8 years of FUCKING SILENCE by the west are DIRECTLY responsible for all this mess. You want to look for a cause, this is it.

    Still does not excuse Putin actions and carnage but as Thanos said, it was inevitable. West brought it on themselves by their impotence and rhetoric which escalated and accelerated since 2020. Actions and words have consequences.

  46. Emery Avatar
    Emery

    Russia shelling Chernobyl, taking it over for a month, and digging radiological trenches in the red forest was an elaborate ruse to liberate the Donbas, and we fell for it.

    17–dimensional chess from Putin as usual…

    Ukraine resumes control of Chernobyl nuclear power plant
    https://abcnews.go.com/International/live-updates/russia-ukraine/?id=83390885

  47. Blade Nzimande Avatar
    Blade Nzimande

    Delenda, I really dgaf who you choose to get your favorite flavor of propaganda from.

    All that really matters is what’s left when the dust settles. I think I know what that’s gonna look like.

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