Armchair Private Speaks
By Mitch Berg
I have no military experience, other than a lifetime of reading military history and an obsessive’s facility for identifying World War II planes, tanks and ships.
Take everything I say with a grain – what the heck, a block – of salt.
But I’m going to indulge in a little pointless speculation about the war in Ukraine.
When discussing a war where both sides are experts at propaganda and warping public perception, trying to comment on anything in “the news” with any certitude is a fool’s errand.
Noted. I am that fool, and for right now it is my errand.
He Who Forgets: The thought of being able to win an easy – or at least easier – victory by taking out a key objective – the enemty’s leadership, capitol, or a key defense – is one of those things that keeps millitary planners busy dreaming.
In some cases – the US drives to Baghdad in 2003, or the German airborne assault on Fort Eben Emaël, in Belgium in June of 1940 – it works.
But not always.
In April, 1940, as part of Germany’s invasion of Norway, a Navy task force raced up Oslo Fjord; it’s mission was to land an invasion force on the Oslo waterfront to seize the. Storting (Parliament) and capture King Håkon and his administration, giving him a choice of capitulation and serving as a puppet (as his cousin, Christian X of Denmark, in effect did) or something much less pleasant.
On the final approach to Oslo, 15-20 miles south of the capital, in one old coastal fort (Oscarsborg, armed with three antique 1890s cannon (only two of them manned, and even those with rookie draftee crews) and a couple of equally ancient torpedoes launched from a James Bond via Rube Goldberg-style secret underwater cave, the commander, Colonel Birger Eriksen, disobeyed a “Stand Down” order, and opened fire at the leading German ship (reportedly telling the gun crew “Damn right we’re firing live ammunition” as he gave the order to fire), the heavy cruiser Blücher, blowing off a turret and sinking it in the channel, blocking the rest of the invasion (I told the story here, 12 years ago), and allowing Håkon to escape Oslo, and eventually get to the UK to continue the war.
The German attempt to “decapitate” Norway, with all its elaborate planning, failed because of one guy disobeying orders.
Similarly, the German airborne attempt to decapitate the Dutch military command, two months later, ended up a nearly Pyrrhic victory, as the paratroopers ran into a prepared defense, and were gunned down in droves by alerted and angry Dutch defenders.
Not Nearly Far Enough: Similarly, in September, Field Marshal Montgomery hatched a plan to end the war by Christmas; launch a lightning (by 1944 standards) strike to vault across the Rhine River (and a few lesser rivers and canals on the way), which was Germany’s only real natural defense from invasion from the west, across terrain that isn’t a whole lot more naturally defensible than the road from Fargo to Winnipeg.
To do it, airborne forces would simultaneously capture bridges across the Maas, Waal and lower Rhein rivers, as well as three canals. Once over the Rhein, there was literally nothing but German towns and troops blocking the road to Berlin.
The crossings of the Maas, and two fo the three canals were captured smoothly. The Waal, at Nijjmegen? Not smoothly at all. And the final crossing of the Rhine at Arnhem failed completely. Only one of the 12 British and Polish airborne battalions reached the bridge; all were mauled, and the Germans held the crossing.
Because of that bloody scrap along the banks of the Rhein, Germany retained its barrier until the bridge at Remagen fell, nearly six bloody months later.
Like The TSA Line, Only With Live Ammo: Again – we don’t know yet how to separate truth from fiction in Ukraine – and forces on both sides, and no side, are doing their darnedest to obscure whatever truth does leak out.
But assuming some of the news is accurate?
As this is written the hot war in Ukraine is five years old; Russian forces are on the northern outskirts of an alerted, angry, heavily armed Kiev.
But around the end of the first day, reporters filtered out that a Russian Airborne assault on two of Kiev’s airports had stalled, and then failed; both airfields remained, apparently, in Ukrainian hands.
Speculation – possibly informed, possibly not – held that the assault was an attempt to get Russian troops into Kiev fast and on the relative cheap, taking the airfields and suppressing the air defenses in order to fly troops in from Russia, debouching them almost directly into the Ukrainian capitol – a move that Russian Airborne has speculated about doing for nearly fifty years, since well back in Soviet times.
Did the Ukrainians read the same operations manual (a rhetorical question – the Ukrainian and Russian Armies both have roots in the Soviet army)? Were the Russians counting on their airborne/air transport assault to knock Ukrainian leadership so off-kilter that they’d have a much harder time resisting the conventional, armored ground attack, which woujld then have an easier time getting into Kiev?
We won’t know until the fall of Putin’s Russia opens up all the secrets that have gotten covered over since the fall of the USSR, of course.
But it’s interesting, if armchair, speculation.
(NOTE: If your response to this post is “the war in Ukraine doesn’t affect us, so I don’t care” – that’s fine, duly noted, and save it for a different thread. Thanks.
February 28th, 2022 at 11:58 am
Putin underestimated Ukraine and the West. The lesson of credible defense is a prerequisite for a credible negotiating position is one worth learning and re learning on a regular basis. Stoltenberg, the president of NATO took the correct line. He offered Putin a Russia/NATO council that would have addressed Russia’s concerns IF security was what Putin was looking for. But Stoltenberg would not indulge Putin, unlike some Western leaders like Macron. That is the way you negotiate. With a fair offer that you can live with.
But it needs credible back up and that is where the US, the UK and Poland got it right, They supplied Ukraine with the appropriate weaponry and training, although probably not enough and that is now being hastily corrected.
But sometimes individual acts of courage and leadership, as shown by Zelensky, can galvanise the world to stand up, and change the course of history. It may sound cliche, and we take it for granted, but freedom and democracy are not entitlements — they are endowments handed to us by the sacrifice of those who gave their lives to defend against fascism, communism and imperialism. Zelensky has shamed the EU and the world to taking action, and written himself into the annals of immortality.
February 28th, 2022 at 12:38 pm
Mitch, your assessment is dead on.
February 28th, 2022 at 12:43 pm
Speaking of propaganda, Geneva convention? What Geneva convention!?
Ukrainian officials have been posting dozens of videos and photos online parading captured bloodied Russian soldiers, including some fighters who claimed they didn’t know they were being sent to invade.
February 28th, 2022 at 12:47 pm
It’s a time-honored tradition to drag bloody Russian soldiers through the streets to demoralize the homeland. Just ask the Afghans and Chechens.
(Jimmy Carter could probably tell you a thing or two about that, as well.)
February 28th, 2022 at 12:51 pm
fascinating essay which had been memoryholed very quickly. I’m not going to translate it for you, but if you have problems clarifying passages, let me know:
https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html
February 28th, 2022 at 2:13 pm
Scary essay. Reminds me of apologists for Jim Crow in the 1960s South (I’ve read a book by one that was given to my great uncle, who was a newsman in Louisiana at the time and decidedly not on that side of the argument).
Understood fully that Ukraine has been a mess for a while, which is probably the big reason I’m not flying their flag right now. I am frankly surprised that they’re actually fighting as well as they are, given that. But they remember the Holodomor well enough to know they don’t want to be governed from Moscow.
February 28th, 2022 at 2:30 pm
That was a fascinating article, from a non-western perspective. Something which we don’t see very often.
(copy/paste into google translate worked well enough to understand the author’s message)
February 28th, 2022 at 2:32 pm
The Telegraph has an article today about that Akopov article, surmising that it was written in advance of the invasion for the state-run media (with the Kyev dateline), and with the expectation of running as soon as “victory” was declared. Then, when that didn’t happen, it still accidentally appeared and then had to be hastily memory-holed. The Telegraph and others were still able to recover the article.
February 28th, 2022 at 2:39 pm
One thing which has piqued my interest, is the almost universal anti-Russia virtue signaling from both the left and right (many many FB profile pictures with blue and yellow flags). For many on the left being such devoted communists (whether they realize it or not), they sure are falling victim to social anti-Russian propaganda, and quickly.
Someone I follow on FB (his page…he moved his persona from that of a person to that of a public figure because he posted lots of good stuff and got too many followers/friend requests to handle it as a single private person) put up a post saying essentially “I am willing to fully reverse statements I have previously made. Now that I have been enlightened via comments in the post below about Ukraine not being nice guys, I am withdrawing my support of them”.
I tried to find a post on his page talking about Ukraine and could not. Which makes me wonder, what am I missing about them? Like most others, my initial reaction was “Commie Russkies bad, always bad, so Ukraine must be good”. But is it correct pick a side in this? Other than “2 baddies going at it, but one is definitely not a global power”? I don’t know enough to have a dog in this fight other than “keep your war over there and try not to crash the global economy okplzthx”
February 28th, 2022 at 2:40 pm
Dammit, I forgot and was scuttered by using the word that contains the brand of ED pills.
February 28th, 2022 at 2:57 pm
Honest question for Emory or anyone else that knows. What weapons has the Biden Administration supplied to Ukraine?
I know that the Obama Administration refused to supply lethal weaponry, not matter how defensive. I also know that the Trump Administration changed that policy and supplied weapons that would actually kill invaders.
Has the Biden Administration done anything itself, continued, extended, expanded, those arms transfers?
February 28th, 2022 at 4:20 pm
SSC, thank you for a rhetorical chuckle
February 28th, 2022 at 5:56 pm
SSC, I googled it, and it appears that the most dangerous part of it is Javelin anti-tank missiles, along with various small arms.
February 28th, 2022 at 6:29 pm
It is interesting that everyone who lives near Russia has stockpiles of anti-tank weapons on hand.
/Marin: Finland sending arms to Ukraine, MPs to discuss Nato on Tuesday/https://yle.fi/news/3-12337744
February 28th, 2022 at 6:30 pm
https://yle.fi/news/3-12337744
February 28th, 2022 at 7:23 pm
The problem with the fog of war is lack of reliable information. We can’t know who to trust to form opinions about current events.
I’m a little older than Mitch, so I remember when we had reliable information. Uncle Walter gave us body count every night. We knew for sure we were winning. That’s what we need now.
February 28th, 2022 at 8:31 pm
“the assault was an attempt to get Russian troops into Kiev fast and on the relative cheap, taking the airfields and suppressing the air defenses in order to fly troops in from Russia, debouching them almost directly into the Ukrainian capitol”.
I’ve been hearing reports that the troops on the ground were low-quality, barely-trained, and poorly-equipped conscripts.
And that would make sense, if they were intended to act as a diversion, with the experienced troops landing at the airfields.
February 28th, 2022 at 9:37 pm
Cruel repression tends to unite a citizenry long after the oppressors leave. It’s something most Americans don’t understand since we’ve been pretty isolated from long term oppression and occupation.
Talk to anyone in the Balkans or Greece and casually bring up the Turks, even 100 years after they’ve left. They’ll turn from mild mannered normal folks into folks ready to go full Rome-on-Cathage almost to a man. It was eye opening to me to see how folks famous for hating each other turned on the Turks with wild abandon and in unanimity, and in frenzied passion.
I still remember my Greek guide talking with pride about their Tomb of the Unknown Soldier as we were walking past to another monument. But a casual question about the uniform and cadence, when I mentioned how it was done in the US, met with a very fierce response where he explained the number of folds, the number of steps taken, etc. all dictated by facets of the Turkish occupation. It actually bears a tremendous resemblance to how the US tomb operates, and was pretty impressive.
So the attitude is: it is my house, and pretty messy, but it MY HOUSE and I don’t want someone else meddling in it, especially if it has been trashed by them in the past.
February 28th, 2022 at 9:54 pm
Well, they’re the Finns. Look up the Winter War, then look how Finland was a cobelligerent (but not ally) of Germany when they invaded in WWII(*), then what Russia did to Finland after the war. If the Finlandization policy of the Cold War didn’t mean that the Finns and Russians were so economically entwined, I don’t doubt that they’d be clamoring to be in NATO now.
If Russia had been able to roll over Ukraine easily, I expect they would have cowed Finland, Sweden, and the Baltics into Finlandization. But now Putin’s created another set of problems for himself with more folks who have not-very-fond memories of what it was like to be under Russia’s thumb. The national character of Finland, being what it is, bears Russia no good will.
Still, the world has seen what happens under modern Democratic US presidents. Were I Taiwan, I’d be launching a crash nuke program yesterday.
(*) Hitler tried very hard to get Finland to do more than it did, which was merely to reclaim the territory they’d lost in the Winter War. They could have done a lot more damage to the USSR had they gone after Archangel or pushed more to cut off Leningrad, but Finland wasn’t keen to overextend themselves, nor were they ideologically Axis. They just wanted their original territory back, which they never got, BTW, and Russia expelled all the Finns who originally had been living there. How the Finns treated those refugees isn’t pretty, so all in all, that was a messy affair.
March 1st, 2022 at 9:27 am
One of the great things about soci@l media (there, I remembered it this time) is that since almost anyone and everyone has a smartphone, even in Ukraine, lots of videos are going up on FB, TikTok and YouTube of Ukrainian civilians encountering Russian soldiers and equipment. I’ve seen one video of a Ukrainian guy driving in his car next to a stationary Russian tank with 3 soldiers sitting on it. He laughingly asks if they need a tow. They replied “Yes, we are out of fuel”. He laughs and drives on. Another video showed an abandoned Russian tank, which the interior of looked like a cross between a hoarder nightmare and a 13 year old boy’s room with tons of junk scattered around. Another video showed a woman climbing into a troop transporter which was abandoned in the woods, starting it up, and driving it away while she and her “cameraman” were laughing. She was wearing civie clothing, but must have had some rudimentary military experience as the startup procedure was not something that would be easy to figure out on your own.
March 1st, 2022 at 9:37 am
As I’ve noted before, I have personal reasons to follow what’s going on in Finland, and the latest poll shows that 53% are in favor of the country joining NATO. That’s not a huge majority, but it is quite a difference from the traditional view. A poll taken in January showed that 30% of Finns were undecided; in the latest poll the undecideds had dropped to 19%.
(Finnish PM Sanna Marin, btw, looks like Kristi Noem’s twin sister!)
March 1st, 2022 at 12:20 pm
NW, while she may look like Noem, she is a leftist.
“The SDP is a centre-left social-democratic party.[20][21][22] The SDP is opposed to Finland joining NATO and is for Finland remaining in the Partnership for Peace. In the 2015 Finnish parliamentary election, 91% of SDP candidates were opposed to NATO membership.[23]”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Finland#Ideology
However, her position on NATO apparently has changed:
“In 2022, Marin made positive comments about the prospect of Finland joining NATO. This action caused a negative reaction from the Russian media, with some outlets reporting that “Moscow was stabbed in the back.”[35][36] Following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Marin commented on Finland’s potential membership after the invasion, noting, “It is also now clear that the debate on Nato membership in Finland will change,” while noting that a Finnish application to NATO would require widespread political and public support.[37] On 25 February, a Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson threatened Finland and Sweden with “military and political consequences” if they attempted to join NATO, which neither were actively seeking. Both countries had attended an emergency NATO summit as members of NATO’s Partnership for Peace and both had condemned the invasion and had provided assistance to Ukraine.[38]”
I guess the threat of war has a way of changing one’s ideology when you’re contemplating having a gun pointed at you. Funny that…
March 1st, 2022 at 12:21 pm
NW, while she may look like Noem, she is a leftist.
“The SDP is a centre-left soci@l-democratic party.[20][21][22] The SDP is opposed to Finland joining NATO and is for Finland remaining in the Partnership for Peace. In the 2015 Finnish parliamentary election, 91% of SDP candidates were opposed to NATO membership.[23]”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soci@l_Democratic_Party_of_Finland#Ideology
(change the @ to a)
However, her position on NATO apparently has changed:
“In 2022, Marin made positive comments about the prospect of Finland joining NATO. This action caused a negative reaction from the Russian media, with some outlets reporting that “Moscow was stabbed in the back.”[35][36] Following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Marin commented on Finland’s potential membership after the invasion, noting, “It is also now clear that the debate on Nato membership in Finland will change,” while noting that a Finnish application to NATO would require widespread political and public support.[37] On 25 February, a Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson threatened Finland and Sweden with “military and political consequences” if they attempted to join NATO, which neither were actively seeking. Both countries had attended an emergency NATO summit as members of NATO’s Partnership for Peace and both had condemned the invasion and had provided assistance to Ukraine.[38]”
I guess the threat of war has a way of changing one’s ideology when you’re contemplating having a gun pointed at you. Funny that…
March 1st, 2022 at 12:22 pm
Sigh…..Mitch, if you see this, approve my first modded comment and delete the second.
March 1st, 2022 at 1:46 pm
Ukrainians say new shipment of US Javelins and UK NLAWS have arrived.
https://tinyurl.com/2mv55zbu
There are anti-aircraft missiles being shipped too but all the experts still think it highly unlikely Russia will be stopped (without outside intervention that is not expected). Whether Russia can hold an occupation for any amount of time is an entirely different question.