Shot in the Dark

I Heard It On The NARN

Diane Napper is running for MN State Senate in SD63 . Check out her website. Help out if you can.

And if I can’t convince you to “socially distance” yourself for the duration of the public health crisis, hopefully this excellent article will. It’s a long, it’s a long, technical read – but the uphot is, the difference between a flu-like .5% death rate, and Italy/Iran/Wuhan-like 3-6%, is keeping the rate of infections down to what the health system can handle. That means lowering the number of infections at any given time, so the heatlh care system can keep up.

It’s literally a matter of life and death.

Wash your hands – often. Wash down surfaces. Don’t sneeze on people – sneeze into a hanky or your elbow or anything but open air. Enjoy some alone time. Stay home from work if you can, and keep your distance if you can’t.

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Mitch Berg

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4 responses to “I Heard It On The NARN”

  1. golfdoc50 Avatar
    golfdoc50

    I’d caution readers against believing this guy’s conclusions. He does not have a medical background. A lot of commenters have zinged him about that and inaccuracies in his graphs. Looking at the CDC numbers as of yesterday the dates of illness onset they publish are not increasing exponentially. In fact, they look very linear with a slightly positive trend. I’m encouraged that people are taking this seriously but it’s not going to lead to collapse of out medical system. Wash hands, limit exposure to sick people, don’t go into public spaces if you feel unwell. I’m loving how all the Trump haters are teeing off on him because after this is over, with a far lower death toll than predicted, he’s going to be watching them eat crow.

  2. Joe Doakes Avatar
    Joe Doakes

    Nah, when it’s all over and the Trump administration containment efforts worked, his critics will say, “Hardly anybody got sick or died so you over-reacted and ruined the economy for nothing.”

    It’s like the authorities catching terrorists before they strike. Nobody knows of the successes. They only know of the failures.

  3. gill0137 Avatar
    gill0137

    If preventative measures means washing your hands and having extra caution if sick or around sick people, I take your point.

    But if measures include shuttering schools and any large gathering (sports, conventions, religious services, etc); the Y axis becomes incredibly important.

    While not labeled, I assume the purple death spike is about 2 months, and the green knoll is about a year. If the more aggressive containment measures are needed for a year, then we have to ask for what.

    Essentially, we are preventing 80+ year olds from dying of corona, (maybe adding 200-500 days of geriatric life till another old age effect inevitably claims them) in exchange for shuttering society for a year.

    I suggest that mounting senior poverty due to shrinking investments and failing pensions will be much more lethal to the elderly than corona.

  4. Profit Taking Swiftee Avatar
    Profit Taking Swiftee

    Thanks doc. It’s nice to have a rational medical pro on this site.

    I’ve been monitoring the news a bit. I can see the degenerate leftist mayors and governors in NY, VA and VA are taking full advantage of the situation…fuck them. They are the problem of the people suffering their leadership, it’s none of mine.

    What I do worry about is the degenerates in DC using this non-issue to stuff a pile of leftist BS into bills they’ve convinced the low IQ population are matters of life and death. They’ve already made an attempt and we can expect more.

    On the other hand, there is one pressing issue that should most certainly be tied to any future relief legislation; batten down the US-Mexico border. The GuataMexidorians that are sneaking in may or may not be bringing Kung Flu in with them, but why would we take the chance? We know that they are bringing whooping cough, typhus, tuberculosis, mumps and a plethora of parasitical maladies we had all but eradicated in the US.

    If nCoV2019 is as bad as the science loving, degenerate panic mongers are telling us it is, surely they wouldn’t object to making sure we’re not importing it undetected, right?

    BTW. If your kids will starve if they can’t get their free breakfast and lunch from school, you are not only an unfit parent, you’re a waste of good breathing air.

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