In Which Captain Obvious Gets Promoted To Major

I’ve got a fair number of friends and acquaintances who say they never, ever come to the Twin Cities because of the crime.

Now, I’ve lived here for 34 years – and like most people who live here, I know that the whole place is not a cesspool of criminality. My neighborhood is generally pretty good. To the north, even better. South of Thomas? Not so much.

So most of the hysteria about crime in the Metro is the sort of game of “telephone” you get among people who don’t know the subject all that well – a phenomenon that social media has only accelerated.

But there are places I just don’t go, or at least times when I just don’t go there. Places and times when the risk/reward ratio just isn’t favorable. North Minneapolis after dinner. Dayton’s Bluff or the North End after dark. The less well-lit parts of downtown Minneapolis at night. The Green Line after 10PM.

Statistically, you are much more likely to be a victim of crime and violence when you hang out where violent criminals are.

It’s not hysteria. It’s prudence.

The idea that a third of Americans modify their behavior because of fear of mass shootings?

I was about to say “that’s not prudence – that’s hysteria”; for the most part they are going from one place where mass shootings are vanishingly rare (but correlated via the media’s obsession and Big Gun Control’s focus on mass shootings, rather than by some actual indicator, like “gun free zone” or a state’s regulations on the law-abiding citizen) to another place where, statistically, mass shootings aren’t a whole lot less likely in the same sense that one is “less” likely to get struck by lightning in Saint Paul than Minneapolis.

There are really only two behaviors that affect ones coincidence with and vulnerability to mass shootings:

  • Being in a gun free zone
  • Being, yourself, gun-free.

Hope we’ve solved this.

11 thoughts on “In Which Captain Obvious Gets Promoted To Major

  1. I haven’t caught up to the modern hysteria yet. I’m still worried about being nuked by Russians while cowering under my desk. I’m old-school hysterical.

  2. I’m a lot more worried about some low IQ slob dragging his or her nasty tongue across the food in grocery stores than flock shootings. And how about those self serve hot dogs and drinks in convenience stores? lol…no.

  3. I’m a lot more worried about some low IQ slobb dragging his or her nasty tongue across the food in grocery stores than flock shootings. And how about those self serve hot dogs and drinks in convenience stores? lol…no.

  4. I’m a lot more worried about some low IQ slob dragging his or her nasty tongue across the food in grocery stores than flock shootings. And how about those self serve hot dogs and drinks in conve_nience stores? lol…no.

  5. Three tries, and I still can’t figure out what word has got Merg’s Modbot all hot and bothered.

  6. Back when I still worked in an office, our Crisis Management Team sent around a tip sheet of what to do if we had an active shooter in the office. Basically, the tip was “shelter in place”. I looked at our fabric cubicle dividers, and noted that all the rooms with actual doors were also made of glass, and said, “I don’t think so, Scooter. I’m going to be a moving target.”

  7. What do you mean? There has NEVER been a shooting, mass or otherwise, in a gun-free zone! :-^

  8. So most of the hysteria about crime in the Metro is the sort of game of “telephone” you get among people who don’t know the subject all that well – a phenomenon that social media has only accelerated.

    But there are places I just don’t go, or at least times when I just don’t go there. Places and times when the risk/reward ratio just isn’t favorable.

    I think you just answered your own statement. The folks like me, who view going inside the 494/694 loop with trepidation, are making rational decisions. They know that Mpls/StP have high crime rates, yet they don’t know exactly where those crimes are occurring and how to avoid dangerous areas. Without that data, their reluctance to avoid “the Twin Cities because of the crime” is completely reasonable.

  9. You can argue about avoiding places where mass shootings can occur as illogical, but in my case it’s the fact I don’t like crowds, so any excuse to avoid a place with them works as a justification.

    And when that works to avoid most places in St Paul or Mpls? Bonus!

    And the ability to defend oneself isn’t a factor in that decision. Not that I would ever carry, of course. Owning a gun would be far more dangerous to me than to wait on the police to respond. (Actually, given where I live I wonder how long it would take for the county mounties to respond? If the guy down the street was home it wouldn’t be long, but when he’s on away…)

  10. My big reason for avoiding the city is pretty much that it’s a zoo and a time sink. You can drive 10-20 miles where I live in the same time it takes to go a mile in a lot of neighborhoods in St. Paul or Minneapolis. I can pick out the likely bad neighborhoods–hey, I grew up 20 miles from Gary and have spent time in South Central and the South Side–but the big deal is that getting there is simply no fun. Once you’re there, there are some cool places to go and cool things to do, but getting there….

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