It’s about a year and a half too early to be making big assumptions about such things, but its entirely possible Trump (and relentless Democrat intersectional class warfare) has driven Ohio out of “Swing State” status:
The first hint that Ohio might have lost its bellwether status came in 2016. If you’ll recall from my Wargaming the Electoral College series for the presidential election, Ohio was never in play for Hillary Clinton. While that should have been a coal mine canary that Trump’s chances of winning were far better than the polls indicated, most every expert (and Yours Truly) glossed over that indicator as we pored over our 270toWin maps.
Previously, Barack Obama won Ohio handily in 2008 and 2012. George Bush’s electoral mastermind, Karl Rove, bet big on Ohio twice — and won twice, too. In fact, as Roll Call’s Ben Peters reminds us, “Going back to 1896, the Buckeye State has backed the winning candidate in all but two elections — the best record for any state in recent history.” Looking ahead, he writes, “Election handicappers largely put Ohio in the GOP column for 2020 — Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the state’s presidential race Likely Republican.”
It’s good news in a sense – it’ll take the Dems a while, and a lot of illegal-alien voting, to get Ohio back in the gray zone – but it further shows that the nation’s cultural divide is becoming gnarlier.
And given how far to the extreme left the Democrat party is pulling, I’m almost afraid to see what “the center” looks like anymore.
I’m almost afraid to see what “the center” looks like anymore.
Hasn’t that always been the job of those who became known as the Never Trumpers? Together with the Chamber of Commerce Republicans.
And after this election Minnesota might be driven into swing state territory. Despite our crappy state party. Its basically Hennipen and Ramsey County vote D in lockstep and the rest of the state is red.
The rest of the state is pretty red, PoD, but there are some areas of resistance. SE MN, Austin and now Rochester with all of its immigrants. The (“da”) Range has growing red tendencies, but there are still lots of “moderate” lefties willing to find (ie, manufacture) votes for the DFL. There’s also a bunch of counties in SW MN, probably Scandis, who always seem to vote DFL.
And let’s not forget all the nice white suburban housewives around the metro who like their politics and policies to be “nice”, and (common-)sensible, and caring.
I’ve said that Trump isn’t unique — he’s just resurrected the Reagan Coalition of working class voters who want theirs and conservatives. That’s why he won Wisconsin and Ohio, and why I don’t think Cruz could have done so.
As bad as most Republicans are at kowtowing to Big Business, Trump’s America-first policies at least have driven some sort of a revival in their prospects. The Democrats in 2016 abandoned those voters, and Clinton lost any hope of getting their votes with her “learn to code in places that don’t have coding jobs” comment about miners. And she was the most likely to attract working class folks of any of the Democrats in that or 2020’s class!
That moderation queue must be driving you nuts, Mitch. Lots of stuff is getting caught in there these days.
Your comment, nerdbert, made me chuckle when I remembered that words like com***ism and other -isms are moderated and I had removed those very words from my comment about about the range.
“but there are some areas of resistance. SE MN, Austin and now Rochester with all of its immigrants”
Goodhue county is pretty thoroughly infested with “immigrants”, as well. But I’m sure leftist reprobates will be quick to say they’re bringing new business opportunities…and they’re right.
Dog bites Man, Mitch. The loss of union/manufacturing jobs has meant Ohio has drifted red. The shocker is that those voters didn’t see that it was the “profits’ first”ers that meant the jobs moved to Mexico or India. Outstate Ohio, and even city-based population around Cincinnati have long been pretty “conservative” (in quotes because what I really mean is racist). Couple that with the voter suppression which Ohio has undertaken by shortchanging Cleveland and Columbus on voting machines, and “shock” yes, Ohio is more red. By contrast, Virginia and North Carolina, and Colorado, and New Mexico and even Arizona and Texas, are more blue. Have they flipped to solidly supporting the Democratic Party, no, but if the Prez keeps lauding white supremacists as “fine people”, attacking Hispanic immigrants who flee here after we help start civil wars in their home country (thanks Obama/Clinton, nice work there), taking jobs many won’t take – then those states will shift further toward the Dems while rust belt states dead-end themselves into desperate moves like voting for “trickle-down.” which has worked so very well to save jobs in Ohio for the past 40 years.
I saw something in 2016 that might explain what happened. Political science as a profession relies on polling and polling calls were non stop during the presidential campaign.
I finally got fed up with all the calls and started answering the questions as if I were a yellow dog Democrat. I loved Hillary. I was all for gun control, affirmative action, the environment etc. I later discovered that many of my co-workers were doing the same. One older white guy told the pollsters that he was a 23 year black lesbian.
The point is that political scientists are absolutely dependent on polling data. When a large enough group starts feeding garbage into the system, all that comes out is garbage. Hillary’ was sure she had our state in the bag and spent her time elsewhere. Surprise!
I think Minnesotans should pick up this practice. The more garbage you feed into DFL polling the sooner you will be rid of these fools.
You guys think your stuck in the akismet moderation queue.
But what if it’s Mitch?
What if it’s Mitch?