The FBI designated 27 “active shooter” situations in 2018. 10 of them, they called “Mass Shootings”.
So keep that in mind as you look over the stats from the FBI’s annual report on active shooter situations.
“The FBI has designated 27 shootings in 2018 as active shooter incidents.”
“10 of those 27 met our definition of a mass shooting”
Now, remember – in most states that allow civilian carry of firearms, maybe 2% of the population has a permit to carry; in permitless (“Constitutional”) carry states, I’d suspect the total carrying might be higher, but I’m going to also suspect the subsets of people willing to undergo the hassle and responsibility of carrying and the subset willing to go through the hassle and red tape of getting a permit are pretty close).
That’s about one person in fifty. Maybe more in some places; I’d imagine a pretty fair share of people in rural Wyoming, Kansas or even Minnesota might have a firearm on nor near their person much of the time. Definitely less in other places – California, Illinois, or any school, federal office or posted business.
Keep that in mind with this next set of stats:
In 5/27 incidents, citizens confronted the shooter. 3 of those 5 were unarmed and were successful in ending the shooting.
In 2 of those 5, armed citizens possessing firearms permits exchanged gunfire with the shooter.
In one of those incidents, armed citizens shot and killed the shooter (oklahoma)
So 2% of the population might have a firearm – but they were able to intervene in about 6% of active shooter situations last year – successfully in both cases:
- I wrote about the Louisville KY Kroger episode in which Dominic Rozier and another man engaged a “white supremacist” at a grocery store who’d murdered two innocent people, driving off the shooter, who was apprehended later.
- I also covered the episode in Oklahoma City last year, in which a good guy with a gun cut short a killing spree.
It’s also worth noting that the other three episodes involving civilians included a wounded teacher subduing shooters. He was in an environment where 0% of the population could be legally armed. Salute.
16/27 happened in a business, 5/27 happened at schools (4 HS, 1 middle school)
It’s worth noting that nine of the episodes at businesses occurred in places where the public had access -including both episodes where armed civilians intervened. That’s 22% – not that percentages carry that much weight with numbers this small.
The other seven occurred in non-public parts of businesses; it’s not stated in the report how many were posted or otherwise no-go for law-abiding civilians
As to conclusions?
I stress – this next bit was written by the FBI. Not the Gun Owners Caucus. Emphasis added:
“As in past years, citizens were faced with split-second, life-and-death decisions. In 2018, citizens risked their lives to safely and successfully end the shootings in five of the 27 active shooter incidents. They saved many lives. Given this reality, it is vital that citizens be afforded training so they understand the risks they face and the options they have available when active shooter incidents are unfolding”
Since we’re assessing risk – all of the deadliest episodes – the Stoneman Douglas and Santa Fe NM schools and the Sutherland Springs Texas school shootings – took place in “gun free” zones where 0% of the people can lawfully be armed.