Like a lot of people last fall, I figured that the Donald Trump candidacy was nothing but a marketing ploy to buff up the power and prestige of the Trump brand.
Trump’s surge over the winter – intended or inadvertent – pushed that narrative to the back of the stove for a few months.
But how comes some intimations that perhaps Trump really doesn’t actually want the presidency, and is working on his exit strategy:
Over the course of the last week, Trump has made headlines and drawn attention by doing and saying things that are completely contrary to what anyone would consider sane.
Trump’s conversation with Chris Matthews on MSNBC …he told Matthews that women who seek abortion should be punished…women are the largest demographic in this country. There is no path to nomination without their support. Why would anyone alienate them?
…[later that week] Trump told the audience that the Geneva Conventions hinder our efforts…“The problem,” Trump said, “is we have the Geneva Conventions, all sorts of rules and regulations, so the soldiers are afraid to fight. We can’t waterboard, but they can chop off heads. I think we’ve got to make some changes.” …Trump also said he would not be opposed to using nuclear weapons in the Middle East or in Europe, during the above-mentioned interview with Chris Matthews.
It does seem odd that Trump – not being an idiot – said such idiotic things. I think it’s entirely plausible Trump wants to avoid Jesse Ventura’s fate, actually having to run a government.
Which is fine and dandy – but galling for those of us who have been fighting to advance the conservative brand and rehabilitate the GOP.
Last September, the GOP had one of the most stellar line-ups of candidates in history. Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and on and on and on.
But for six months, Trump sucked all the air out of the room, eating up any chance for an accomplished but regional figure like a Walker or a Jindal to break out of the pack.
And if Trump does eventually bow out, or lose at the convention, that will be his greatest disservice. Not that I don’t think Ted Cruz will be an excellent candidate – he will – but how much better a race would this have been had it been six months of grappling among serious and sincere candidates rather than the Vince McMahon stunt we’ve just spent six months watching?
I just looked back at “Campaign 2016” on this blog. It’s remarkable: Trump wasn’t on the radar until last July. We were talking Walker versus Paul way back then. Hillary has been running for 10 years, Trump for barely 10 months, and he’s already defeated every other Republican hopeful including the billion-dollar-boy, Jeb!
It’s almost as if Trump’s entire campaign was one giant in-kind contribution to Hillary’s campaign: Trump donating some of his time and the media donating countless billions of dollars worth of free air-time to avoid talking about any viable Republican candidates.
“It does seem odd that Trump – not being an idiot – said such idiotic things. I think it’s entirely plausible Trump wants to avoid Jesse Ventura’s fate, actually having to run a government.”
There was a story about his campaign manager having said they started out hoping to get to double digits of support, finish 2nd a few places and then drop out, probably to help sell something. But then, he caught fire, and while at times since then I’ve wondered exactly the same thing you wonder above I also remember the size of this man’s ego and think he’s now entirely invested and foolishly thinks he can win.
Walker and Jindal aren’t regional but successful, though, Mitch. Jindal is a catastrophe, he couldn’t win dog catcher. Walker is barely better in terms of popularity and about as abysmal in terms of results. Both states are running far behind peer states, both have too little revenue to pay for basic services, both are screwing their middle class out of opportunity. I know you like them because they “champion” conservative causes but I think they are emblematic of what happens when conservative causes become policy. Look around the country, several states lead by conservative principles are lagging, are running huge deficits and are bickering about who to blame rather than fixing the problems (Kansas, South Carolina come to mind immediately, but that’s hardly the end of the list).
The worse problem is this, Trump exposed in stark relief that part of the appeal of conservatism is an appeal to the ugliest side of us. He is the “blame the black/brown/muslim/women” cheerleader. He says it, and maybe he’s not serious, but there’s no denying it is drawing a lot of cheering from what I’d call the Duck Dynasty crowd, you can call them non-Republicans or non-conservatives if you like but I’m afraid that conservatives wouldn’t win elections in purple states without that crowd so are they, or Trump, TRULY not conservatives or are they just a part of the “movement’ you sometimes call ‘one element or faction’ and at other times call “not us.” The fact is it’s Cruz, not Trump, who called for police-state tactics after Brussels, advocating for unconstitutional special patrols in “Muslim” neighborhoods. it’s conservatives who insist on voter ID laws and trans-vaginal ultrasounds, both needless big government intrusions into liberty and privacy. I think Trump is more a part of who and what your movement really is, whether you want to own it is another matter. I think he’s crashing a bit, but the policies of Ted Cruz, which would have resulted in the US defaulting on it’s debt, are no less stupid, no less reckless and certainly no less tyrannical.
Trump is a moderately liberal Democrat. He seems to be running as the image that liberal Democrats have of Republicans.
The lady that defected from his campaign recently. She said that Trump never thought he’d get this far, so didn’t really give any serious thought to what to do if he did. My take is that means he decided to run as kind of a joke or publicity stunt.
I just looked back at “Campaign 2016” on this blog. It’s remarkable: Trump wasn’t on the radar until last July.
To be fair, I have done my best to try to ignore Trump since I first encountered him 30 years ago. I’ve never read his books, never stayed at his hotels, never even watched The Apprentice (OK, I did once, when the daughter of a friend was on the show).
I wholeheartedly agree with your last point, but your first point hinges on this statement, “It does seem odd that Trump – not being an idiot – said such idiotic things.”
Trump has been saying idiotiic, or more specifically using non-political speech, the entire campaign. Political speech is aggravating, but it exists to avoid the pitfalls that trump regularly blunders into.
That trump wants out is wishful thinking. He needs to be beaten, and then the classless billionaire will claim he wanted out all along.
Gosh, it’s as if he consulted with Slick Willie to map out a campaign plan. OH, wait–he did. D*** we can be ignorant in conservative circles sometimes.
One of the regular commenters at my place is a blue collar guy from California, who works for a paper mill and moonlights as a bail bondsman. The global economy has been kicking his ass for over 20 years and, because he lives in California, he also gets to enjoy the depredations of the nanniest of nanny state politicians on offer. And since he lives in California, immigration is a huge issue as well. While he claims he’s not a Trump guy, he seems to support Trump at every turn. He’s frustrated as hell at the situation and the fecklessness of the national politicians in particular. He knows his home state is lost, so he’s turned his attention to finding someone who ostensibly understands his fate.
The problem is obvious — Republican politicians, especially the McConnells and Boehners of the world, have been feckless as hell. Trump is promising things he can’t possibly deliver, but my impression is the Trump vote is not about the promises he’s making. It’s really more about vengeance than it is about public policy. And it’s tough to say Republicans don’t deserve some punishment for their fecklessness. No matter how this plays out, the Republicans need to understand the message they’re getting and not assume this is just a passing storm.
Last September, the GOP had one of the most stellar line-ups of candidates in history. Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and on and on and on.
Before our favorite shit dropper drops some more shit…
Yes, DG. We know that ANY presidential candidate who doesn’t support all abortion, up to and including post-delivery abortion, who doesn’t bow in submission to the perpetual grievance industry, and who doesn’t fight for overarching centralized governmental control of all aspects of life, is A SHIT CANDIDATE
Now you don’t need to waste our time with your verbal smegma.
No matter how this plays out, the Republicans need to understand the message they’re getting and not assume this is just a passing storm.
Fact that Strumpet is where he is, is testament that mcconnels and boners and ryans have no clue what rank and file Republicans and people in general want.
Mitch: but how much better a race would this have been had it been six months of grappling among serious and sincere candidates rather than the Vince McMahon stunt we’ve just spent six months watching?
JD: It’s almost as if Trump’s entire campaign was one giant in-kind contribution to Hillary’s campaign: Trump donating some of his time and the media donating countless billions of dollars worth of free air-time to avoid talking about any viable Republican candidates.
Not that I am a conspiracy theorist, however, my open mind is sometimes not willing to dismiss them out of hand. Knowing Trump has been a SUCCESSFUL businessman (regardless of the people crowing about all his bankruptcies, you don’t make the Fortune 500 list for DECADES by not being successful), and knowing that businesspeople rarely get into politics because they want to MAKE money, once Trump started becoming popular I wondered……why? Why would he switch careers so suddenly?
And part of my brain immediately thought “I could totally see the Clinton politcal machine making backroom deals with him to spoil all the other Republican candidates campaigns. In 2012, the main stream media destroyed them all, one by one (except Pawlenty, the candidate who was least likely to have skeletons in his closet out of them all, who chickened out at the first signs of pushback). This time, Trump was the destroyer. He got rid of everyone except Cruz, which says a lot about Cruz’s conservative bona fides.
(Kasich is just like an annoying mosquito buzzing around your head when you are trying to go to sleep.)
How ill-informed are you guys?
Trump has had aborted presidential campaign runs and been interested in running dating back to 1987. This was not ‘new’. You must have faulty radar if Trump was below it as a possible candidate.
http://mashable.com/2015/06/16/donald-trump-president-fake/#Li5Pj0yVdaqh
Mitch wrote:
“Last September, the GOP had one of the most stellar line-ups of candidates in history. Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and on and on and on.”
Bwahahahahahaaaaahhahahaah
That was almost as funny as your line about students rejecting socialism because of what it costs. The reality is that people in socialist countries (hybrids with capitalism) have higher standards of living, more savings, higher median incomes, and less corruption, better education, better infrastructure, better health. It is your notions that are too costly, in terms of receiving way too little for what one contributes to government controlled by special interests.
STELLAR line-ups? Walker’s state is going down the dumper, he couldn’t carry his own state in a general election. He engineered the looting of his own state for the benefit of one of his cronies, his campaign co-chair, with that crooked stadium deal. Bobby Jindal was widely touted as the most hated governor by his own state, and his state is an epic right wing policy failure. He was doing so badly, it is likely he ran for president just to get out of the governor’s office with a little saved face before he was lynched by his constituents. That Jindal was more hated is saying something given how much Chris Christie is despised in his own state. Not one of the others on your list were ever popular or particularly successful. Jeb is not only a loser in his own right, no one wants another Bush presidency; his policies and his chosen advisers were the same old Dubya crap all over again. Huckabee and Santorum are just perennial jokes. Cruz is responsible for the failed government shut down that accomplished nothing other than to cost a lot of taxpayer money, and he is hated by his colleagues in congress – and many back home in Texas. Fiorina got fired for tanking the company where she was the CEO.
Trump and Carson, and a number of others, quite possibly Trump were always about making money off running. Per one of his former campaign members, Trump was always about boosting his brand by coming in second, until he started winning. NONE of your candidates are presidential; and their policies are even worse.
Watching everyone smearing everyone else is hilarious, it is the brawl inside the clown car on the right. Your beloved tea party Mitch, the move to the extreme right, you are the ones who have fractured your own party the way you fracture the states where your party gains power.
How ill-informed are you guys?
Not very ill-informed at all. Especially if we use your comment as a yardstick.
That was almost as funny as your line about students rejecting socialism because of what it costs.
When did I say any such thing? You’re making things up.
STELLAR line-ups? Walker’s state is going down the dumper
You are parroting lefty chanting points again. As, invariably, always.
DG,
I’m not sure you realize how unqualified to condescend you really are.
You’d do well to stop it.
DG,
Do us a favor. Just leave a comment saying “Hello”.
That’s all I ask.
Heck, you can even say it in a condescending way.
Just leave a comment saying “Hello”.
Thanks.
So we can say “You had me at Hello?”
JPA,
Two-minute penalty.
Let’s call it an experiment.
Trump is promising things he can’t possibly deliver, but my impression is the Trump vote is not about the promises he’s making. It’s really more about vengeance than it is about public policy.
Trump is about promoting Trump. That’s been obvious for years. USFL, et. al. should show that.
Trump’s trump card, if you will, was immigration/trade. He hit a sore spot in the working-class electorate and even among white collar folks running manufacturing. Absent that, yeah, Trump would have been able to generate some buzz and get his name out there, but he selected an issue that the Washington circle-jerk had written off as settled and unimportant. How wrong those Washingtonians were.
I don’t know if Trump’s run was really about winning, or more about promotion. He certainly acted more about promotion and strip-mining the USFL than about building a successful product, for example.
But if he was about promotion more than winning, I can see why he wants out. Being President would force most of his assets into blind trusts and massively cut his income, as well as reducing all privacy to levels he’s probably uncomfortable contemplating. If he gets out, who’s left? Cruz is the only remaining viable candidate from what I can see. Nobody else sparked much of anything with the GOP electorate because Trump sucked all the oxygen out of the room with his trade and immigration policies and essentially destroyed Rubio’s chance of gaining the nomination. The Donald will need cover if he really wants to get out with his reputation intact, and that may explain his lack of ground game in the remaining states.
Most Democrats support Hillary Clinton but really want Sanders.
The problem is Sanders is a frikkin’ nutcase who reached his level of greatest competency when he was mayor of Burlington. At least Trump is an actual member of the Republican party. Trump can honestly say that Sanders is no more a Democrat than he is.
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/transcript-bernie-sanders-meets-news-editorial-board-article-1.2588306
BG, the running, only half-cynical joke in Burlington at the time was that we had to get Sanders away from the city before he completely ruined its finances, and sending him to Washington was sending him to the one place he couldn’t make the finances worse.
[Pauses licking the window to take a bite out of an Orange crayola]
How ill-informed are you guys?
[Adjusts her hockey helmet]
Trump has had aborted presidential campaign runs and been interested in running dating back to 1987.
[Extracts a long stringy booger out of her nose and consumes it]
Bwahahahahahaaaaahhahahaah
Mitch, I have to admit dg does add some hilarious entertainment.
Bobby Jindal was widely touted as the most hated governor by his own state, and his state is an epic right wing policy failure.
Much like the left is doing with the Flint Water Crisis, it wasn’t a problem under decades of leftist government. ONLY when a Republican managed to get elected, NOW its a “right wing policy failure”. We’ll just ignore the previous 3-5 decades of democrat control. It all came about within a couple years of Republicans.
Much like 9/11, 9 months of Bush caused it, not the previous 8 years of Clinton.
You’re so in the tank you can’t see how utterly retarded your thoughts are.
The reality is that people in socialist countries (hybrids with capitalism) have higher standards of living, more savings, higher median incomes, and less corruption, better education, better infrastructure, better health.
If “better” means “tied at the hip to mother government to meet all your needs”, maybe.
https://mises.org/blog/if-sweden-and-germany-became-us-states-they-would-be-among-poorest-states
Walker’s state is going down the dumper, he couldn’t carry his own state in a general election.
Except he won, survived a recall, won again, and a SCOWI justice election which would have determined whether or not his administration stayed, also went his way.
That Jindal was more hated is saying something given how much Chris Christie is despised in his own state.
Christie won twice.
Jeb is not only a loser in his own right, no one wants another Bush presidency; his policies and his chosen advisers were the same old Dubya crap all over again. Huckabee and Santorum are just perennial jokes.
Blind squirrel finds half a nut. Notice that Mitch didn’t include Santorum or Huckabee in his list, for good reason.
Trump and Carson, and a number of others, quite possibly Trump were always about making money off running.
Ignoring the repetition, show me where Carson (a neurosurgeon, not a businessman) and “a number of others” were always about making money. As opposed to the 9 figure net worth Clintons
http://www.bornrich.com/bill-clinton.html
http://www.bornrich.com/hillary-clinton.html
https://www.americarisingpac.org/two-multi-million-dollar-mansions-hillary-says-struggled-pay-mortgage/
http://clashdaily.com/2015/06/here-are-two-houses-can-you-guess-which-is-rubios-and-which-is-hillarys/
Oh yeah, that money grubbing heathen, Marco Rubio wrote a book and took an $800,000 advance on it. Then what did he do with his windfall? Paid off his student loans and bought an $80,000 BOAT! ALL ABOUT THE MONEY.
Unless you were around in 1952, this will be the first and last brokered convention you will ever see. This is going to be a wonder to behold.
“Cruz is the only remaining viable candidate from what I can see. ”
You are assuming the GOP establishment wants to win.
They would rather lose and keep the gravy train going.
In the ’52 convention the delegates picked Eisenhower over “true conservative” Taft because they thought that Ike had a better chance of winning the election than Taft did.
I am not sure what a brokered convention will look like in 2016. There is talk of “arm-twisting” but this ain’t like the old days when the party could promise jobs to delegates.
Whoever the GOP candidate is, he or she will be demonized by the media. Like this:
https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/18s4laiqatueejpg.jpg
McCain is considered a moderate in the GOP.
Let’s not even talk about how much the Obama’s net worth went up since he took office and it ain’t all due to the sales of his stupid books to his drooling sycophants. Then, there is the $50 million he and his wife spent on their lavish vacations. Now, he wants to increase his get out pay.
I just find it funny that mental midgets on the left will excuse the extravagant spending of their masters, yet if a Republican did the same thing, they and their ministry of propaganda would be squealing like pigs!
This spatting is what happens when campaigns last more than a year. It gets on everyone’s nerves.