Trump tanking in polls against Clinton, Sanders. Any of the other three GOP candidates looks good, at this point (although I suspect Kasich’s solid showing is more related to the fact that nobody knows him).
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The GOP nomination still looks like people are voting to chose between the plague, cholera and chronic bowel disorder — rather than going for the old boring long healthy life.
Just keep walking past that mile long line in St. Louis trying to get in to see the Trump rally. Nothing to see there.
Only the rubes are standing in line, history and economics show that the protectionist policies they want will be disastrous if put into place in today’s America. Trump’s tax plan alone would increase deficit by $10 trillion dollars.
Emery,
Its a shame you don’t know what you’re talking about.
here’s a definition to get you started:
Deficit: The amount by which the government’s total budget outlays exceeds its total receipts for a fiscal year.
the Projected US deficit for fiscal year 2016 is $616 billion
Trump is not going to increase the deficit by $9.38 trillion.
If Trump does increase the National Debt by $10 trillion during his administration how would that be any different than what your hero Obama has done?
You’re on to something kel. Ronald Reagan tripled the national debt and George W. Bush doubled it again.
“Deficits don’t matter”
Dick Cheney
Bill Clinton: “Where are all the Democrats? I hope you’re all aware we’re all Eisenhower Republicans.”
It’s kind of fun to just post out of context quotes from politicians.
Barack Hussein Obama: “Where’s that fucking golf ball? I can’t believe I’ve got to take another mulligan.”
old boring long healthy life.
As in Shrillery and Bern? You choose slavery as your want, we get it, eTASS.
Men use alpha male behavior online because it works; many people back down from a rude, confident, arrogant commenter. I often choose to ignore that sort of comment, but occasionally I will reply if I have a cutting or funny response to offer. Rude replies are designed to solicit poorly thought out rejoinders, which can then be seized upon as evidence of flaws in the original post. When I write a post, I’ll review it before I hit the Post button. If I don’t think it’s worth other people’s time reading, I’ll delete it. Arguments with angry posters denigrating my ideas rarely meet that standard, so mostly I just try to ignore them and let the original post stand on its merits.
BG: The natural shape of change is not an exponential or a power law curve, but a sigmoid (S-curve). That is because most systems which without limit would grow exponentially eventually reach a constraint. The approach to that constraint is asymptotic, mathematically a negative exponential approach. A sigmoid appears exponential until you pass the inflection point. The human population of the planet is a good example. We passed the inflection point in the mid-80s, but didn’t have the data to reach that conclusion until the early 90s.
A sigmoid curve is described by y = C / (1 + exp(-kt))
where y is the thing changing from a start of 0 to a constraint of C, t is time, and k is a rate constant (k = ln(2)/18 for Moore’s law with time in months). At large negative values of time (t=0 is the inflection point, so well before the inflection point) the curve is indistinguishable from y = C exp(kt), a positive exponential curve. Rather than positing that k is decreasing, I would assert that the real curve is a sigmoid, not a positive exponential, and that we are reaching the inflection point.
It is only when you approach the inflection point and pass it that it becomes clear that the curve is not a positive exponential. Distrust all pundits who predict that exponential growth of anything will continue. They will eventually be wrong; it’s just a question of when.
Economics is the study of human values. History is the study of human behavior. Neither economics nor history is considered a science because neither can predict outcomes. There is an argument for free will in there somewhere . . .
Economics gets abused by people who forget the principle of Ceteris paribus, or ‘all things being equal.’ This statement lets the economist act like a scientist because it allows him to pretend that he has isolated the independent variable. In macroeconomics that is impossible for any important topic, all you can do is argue that you have isolated the independent variable, you can never prove it. Tax cuts do not always and everywhere result in economic growth, net immigration does not always and everywhere lead to economic growth.
History is abused by virtually everyone in the same way. We pick a narrative and believe that history is acting it out, whether it is evolution or devolution. Charles Beard (1874-1948) is the father of modern historical studies. He said that whatever really happened in some nominal past, what we call history is really just another form of organized human thought, a ‘text’ like a novel or a grocery list. Beard argued that history, as a discipline, has a teleology, but that the actions of human beings do not. To a historian, the people who lived in the Upper Nile Valley ca. 10,000 B.C.E. may have been ‘becoming’ the Egyptians who were ruled by pharoahs and built the pyramids, but in reality those people were doing nothing but hunting and herding animals. There was no ‘intent’ that drove them to create Egyptian civilization. There was only what they were.
History is only useful if we stop trying to use it to predict the future, and use it instead to determine what people are capable of doing.
Emery’s last post was low hanging fruit, I think everyone knew he was playing the cut and paste intellect again:
http://www.11001111.com/node/21694528/comments
What is wrong with you, exactly, Emery? Were you always this fucked up, or did you evolve into a mendacious, ignorant asswipe after your first Democrat caucus?
Bento, you were actually responding to a guy calling himself “Ohio” who was commenting on a different subject on “The Economist”. While your response was spot on in this context, it wouldn’t make any sense to the guy that wrote the original comment.
Now let’s all be patient while Emery carefully reviews someone else’s response before he hits Post.
Well, it was an excuse to write a mini-essay 🙂
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When I write a post, I’ll review it before I hit the Post button.
When I write a post, I’ll review it before I hit the Copy and Paste.
There, fixed it for you, eTASS.
mendacious, ignorant asswipe after your first Democrat caucus?
Swifty, I think he was born a mendacious, ignorant asswipe. And before he attended his first Democratic caucus, I am sure he already had his fill of Das Kapital and Rules for Radicals.