Tightening

GOP gubernatorial candidate Jeff Johnson has been outspent at every turn of this race by the DFL noise machine. With a few exceptions, the media sandbagged him, and more importantly, ignored Gov. Dayton’s many glaring faws, consistently throughout the campaign.

Throughout all of that, Johnson has been counting on a late surge of independents throughout this race.

And maybe it’s starting to happen; The latest KSTP poll is showing some movement in the middle of the electorate:

In the governor’s race, incumbent Democrat Mark Dayton still leads Republican Jeff Johnson 47 percent to 42 percent. Hannah Nicollet of the Independence Party is at 2 percent tied with Libertarian candidate Chris Holbrook. Another 6 percent are either undecided or support other candidates. Dayton lead by 12 points a month ago and five points two weeks ago.
“Independents often swing elections and Mark Dayton had a lead among independents and that lead is now gone,” says Larry Jacobs of the University of Minnesota Humphrey Institute after reviewing our survey data. Independents are often a volatile block of voters. Two weeks ago Dayton led Johnson by six points among independents. Now he trails by 12.

and before you jump to conclusion that every single one of those undecided voters must the GOP for Johnson to have a chance – turnout also matters; if Democrats stay home, that’s good for another extra couple points for Johnson – at the very least more points the Democrats fraud machine is going to have to generate from thin air.

7 thoughts on “Tightening

  1. Mitch:

    The biggest point I’ve taken with polls like this has been that if Dayton hasn’t gotten somebody’s vote already he isn’t going to get somebody to dramatically have the insight to vote for Dayton.

    If you add up Dayton’s 47 and the independence 2 that is 49. Which leaves 51 for Johnson.

    The key thing is what will be the makeup of the electorate. So if the pollster thinks there are just 40% Republicans yet on election night 46% is Republican that means Johnson wins easily.

    So if you’re a Republican go out and vote. Especially if you’re in the 7th Congressional District to vote for Westrom and in the 8th to vote for Mills.

    And don’t forget to vote Republican for your state house candidate!

    Mitch for Minnesota voters lets reply Herb’s speech tomorrow like you did on election day in 2012.

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

  2. Walter,

    That’s pretty much the point of my post; independents have turned 180 degrees. If it keeps up, there is plenty of hope here.

    As to Herb? You read my mind.

  3. Prince:

    I have made the assumption that Johnson is going to win by about 2% over Dayton.

    Assuming Johnson wins by more than 2% along with Westrom and Mills things might get interesting in the Franken race. If Westrom and Mills pile up a nice margin of victory instead of just a 51%-49% then Franken has a chance to lose because the issues that they will use to win are the same ones that McFadden is runing on.

    Franken has been leading in part because he hasn’t gone out and made a fool of himself like Dayton has.

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

  4. It’s probably just more poll manipulation by the DFL. First flog all the polls showing wide margins in favor of the D’s to discourage interest and turn-out for R’s; then if that doesn’t work start talking about how close it is to get your base to turn out in order to keep their lady parts from being bought by the Koch Brothers and sent to a melting glacier. Or something.

  5. Larry Jacobs is a PoliSci genius. What would we do without him?

    Call David Schultz, or Kathryn Pearson, or Steven Schier. After that, yer on yer own, pal.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.