GOP gubernatorial candidate Jeff Johnson has been outspent at every turn of this race by the DFL noise machine. With a few exceptions, the media sandbagged him, and more importantly, ignored Gov. Dayton’s many glaring faws, consistently throughout the campaign.
Throughout all of that, Johnson has been counting on a late surge of independents throughout this race.
And maybe it’s starting to happen; The latest KSTP poll is showing some movement in the middle of the electorate:
In the governor’s race, incumbent Democrat Mark Dayton still leads Republican Jeff Johnson 47 percent to 42 percent. Hannah Nicollet of the Independence Party is at 2 percent tied with Libertarian candidate Chris Holbrook. Another 6 percent are either undecided or support other candidates. Dayton lead by 12 points a month ago and five points two weeks ago.
“Independents often swing elections and Mark Dayton had a lead among independents and that lead is now gone,” says Larry Jacobs of the University of Minnesota Humphrey Institute after reviewing our survey data. Independents are often a volatile block of voters. Two weeks ago Dayton led Johnson by six points among independents. Now he trails by 12.
and before you jump to conclusion that every single one of those undecided voters must the GOP for Johnson to have a chance – turnout also matters; if Democrats stay home, that’s good for another extra couple points for Johnson – at the very least more points the Democrats fraud machine is going to have to generate from thin air.