A few months ago, I predicted that if Congressional Republicans went into next year with more than 20 seats in the Senate and 100 in the House, it’d be a huge defeat for the Democrats; things were looking that bad. (It was pointed out to me that there are not that many potential GOP Senate seats to lose in the election. My response; who said anything about elections? I figured if a huge swath of Republican Senators didn’t resign in fear, it’d add to the Dems’ moral defeat).
Now – it seems Mac and Sarah have some coattails:
A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters’ “generic ballot” preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year…
…The new results come from a Sept. 5-7 survey conducted immediately after the Republican National Convention and mirror the resulting enhanced position of the Republican Party seen in several other indicators. These range from John McCain’s improved standing against Barack Obama in the presidential race to improved favorability ratings of the Republicans, to Republican gains in party identification. The sustainability of all of these findings is an open question that polling will answer over the next few weeks.
The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup’s “likely voter” model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.
I’ll stick with my prediction, of course; there’s almost two months ’til the election, and the Dems are running against four years of awful GOP history.
But there just might be a shift in momentum, here…