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Handicapping The Senate

By Mitch Berg

Yesterday, we teed up with the House.

Today – using Tony Petrangelo’s district by district ratings as a jumping off point – I’ll take my whack at the Senate.

As noted yesterday, my predictions are largely – but not purely – subjective.  That being said, my subjective predictions, when they’re not woefully off (Mark Kennedy in 2006) are usually pretty dead-on (I nailed the 2004 presidential election within eight electoral votes).

As always, you get what you pay for.

District DFL Candidate GOP Candidate Petrangelo Berg
1 LeRoy Stumpf Steve Nordhagen Toss-up I’d say incumbency would give SD1 a DFL lean – but not this year.
2 Rod Skoe Dennis Moser Toss-up See SD1
3 Thomas Bakk Jennifer Havlick Safe DFL Safe DFL
4 Kent Eken Phil Hansen Toss-up Toss-up
5 Tom Saxhaug John Carlson Toss-up The fact that this is a “Toss-up” alone should make it Lean GOP
6 David Tomassoni Brandon Anderson Safe DFL Safe DFL
7 Roger Reinert Tyler Verry Safe DFL Safe DFL
8 Dan Skogen Bill Ingebrigtsen Likely GOP I’ll call this one Safe GOP
9 Al Doty Paul Gazelka Likely GOP Likely GOP
10 Taylor Stevenson Carrie Ruud Toss-up I’ll make this one Leans GOP
11 Tony Lourey Bill Saumer Likely DFL I’m going to go with Safe DFLL
12 John Schultz Torrey Westrom Lean GOP Lean GOP
13 Peggy Boeck Michelle Fischbach Likely GOP This seat is Safe GOP
14 Jerry McCarter John Pederson Toss-up Leans GOP
15 Ron Thiessen Dave Brown Safe GOP Safe GOP
16 Ted Suss Gary Dahms Lean GOP Lean GOP
17 Lyle Koenen Joe Gimse Toss-up Lean GOP
18 Steve Schiroo Scott Newman Safe GOP Safe GOP
19 Kathy Sheran Safe DFL Safe DFL
20 Kevin Dahle Mike Dudley Toss-up Toss-up
21 Matt Schmit John Howe Toss-up Lean GOP
22 Alan Oberloh Bill Weber Lean GOP Lean GOP
23 Paul Marquardt Julie Rosen Likely GOP Likely GOP
24 Vicki Jensen Vern Swedin Lean GOP Lean GOP
25 Judy Ohly David Senjem Lean GOP Lean GOP
26 Ken Moen Carla Nelson Lean GOP Lean GOP
27 Dan Sparks Linden Anderson Safe DFL Safe DFL
28 Jack Krage Jeremy Miller Toss-up Toss-up
29 Brian Doran Bruce Anderson Safe GOP Safe GOP
30 Paul Perovich Mary Kiffmeyer Safe GOP Safe GOP
31 Mike Starr Michelle Benson Safe GOP Safe GOP
32 Jeske Noordergraaf Sean Nienow Likely GOP I’m going to say Nienow is Safe GOP
33 Judy Rogosheske David Osmek Safe GOP Safe GOP!
34 Sharon Bahensky Warren Limmer Lean GOP This is Likely GOP at the very worst.
35 Peter Perovich Branden Petersen Likely GOP Likely GOP
36 John Hoffman Benjamin Kruse Toss-up Lean GOP
37 Alice Johnson Pam Wolf Toss-up Lean GOP
38 Timothy Henderson Roger Chamberlain Likely GOP Likely GOP
39 Julie Bunn Karin Housley Toss-up Lean GOP
40 Chris Eaton Safe DFL Safe DFL
41 Barbara Goodwin Gina Bauman Safe DFL Safe DFL
42 Bev Scalze April King Toss-up Scalse’s name recognition vs. King’s work ethic and timely message?  Unfortunately, still a toss up.
43 Charles Wiger Duane Johnson Likely DFL Likely DFL
44 Terri Bonoff David Gaither Lean DFL Lean DFL, although I’m looking for a reason to call it a tosser.
45 Ann Rest Blair Tremere Likely DFL Likely DFL if only due to inertia
46 Ron Latz Roger Champagne Safe DFL Safe DFL
47 James Weygand Julianne Ortman Safe GOP Safe GOP
48 Laurie McKendry David Hann Toss-up I’ll strongly break with Petrangelo on this one; Hann is Likely GOP
49 Melisa Franzen Keith Downey Toss-up I’m going with Lean GOP, in part due to the Third not being nearly as purple as they think it is, in part because Obama will have no coattails, and in part because the DFL’s Barnes campaign has been such an inept train wreck.
50 Melissa Wiklund Vern Wilcox Safe DFL Safe DFL
51 Jim Carlson Ted Daley Toss-up I’ll say Lean GOP
52 James Metzen Dwight Rabuse Lean DFL I’ll go with Lean DFL too, much as I wish my former AM1280 colleague Rabuse the best.
53 Susan Kent Ted Lillie Toss-up Very tough race, but I think Lillie pulls it out.  Leans GOP
54 Katie Sieben Janis Quinlan Likely DFL Likely DFL
55 Josh Ondich Eric Pratt Safe GOP Safe GOP
56 Leon Thurman Dan Hall Lean GOP I’m going to go with Likely GOP
57 Greg Clausen Pat Hall Toss-up I’ll run with Lean GOP
58 Andrew Brobston Dave Thompson Safe GOP Safe GOP
59 Bobby Joe Champion Jim Lilly Safe DFL Safe DFL
60 Kari Dziedzic Mark Lazarchic Safe DFL Safe DFL
61 Scott Dibble Safe DFL Safe DFL
62 Jeff Hayden Eric Blair Safe DFL Safe DFL
63 Patricia Torres Ray Patrick Marron Safe DFL Safe DFL
64 Dick Cohen Sharon Anderson Safe DFL Safe DFL
65 Sandy Pappas Rick Karschnia Safe DFL Safe DFL
66 John Marty Wayde Brooks Safe DFL Safe DFL
67 Foung Hawj Mike Capistrant Safe DFL Safe DFL

Tomorrow, the breakdown for the next round in the Legislature.

This entry was posted by by Mitch Berg on Thursday, October 25th, 2012 at 6:00 am and is filed under MN Legislature. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

2 Responses to “Handicapping The Senate”

  1. Mr. D Says:
    October 25th, 2012 at 7:50 am

    I agree completely about April King in SD42 — she’d immediately become a superstar in the Senate if she can get the gig.

    I wish you weren’t likely correct about Goodwin vs. Gina Bauman in SD41. Goodwin is just clownish and Gina would be a vast improvement — she’s done a fantastic job on the New Brighton city council. We’re in there pitching, but it’s tough for a Republican to win a district with Columbia Heights in it these days.

  2. Chuck Says:
    October 25th, 2012 at 11:56 am

    I know lawn signs mean little, and different parts of the district are more Democrat/Republican than others. But I have to say the Dwight Rabuse is working harder than past Republicans on turning this seat.

    I would love to see him in the capital.

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