So the landed punditry is declaring the Democratic race pretty much all over.

Paul Mirengoff’s predictive powers are, well, fallible.

On the other hand, his analysis is generally not.  He notes that there’s a qualitative calculation to predicting who wins the White House; the fundamentals include the economy,  any ongoing wars and their popularity with the people, how long the current party’s been in power, and so on.

This year, these “fundamentals” point to a Democratic victory of at least 10 percentage points.

Make mine a double…

Weighing against this outcome is, first, the fact that McCain is a better than average nominee in terms of electability. For one thing, he does not have a close association with the unpopular president. In addition, his appeal to independent and centrist voters is well known. Second, Obama may well prove a worse than average nominee. He lacks anything like the experience voters look for in a president, and he’s an extremist as presidential nominees go, a perception that now is reinforced by some of his unusual associations.

At this stage, though, it seems more likely than not that these factors won’t overcome the fundamentals.

Read:  Mini-Carter!

What about all those Clinton voters who say they will vote for McCain? The short answer is, if they’re Democrats I don’t believe very many of them. Look for the party and its rank-and-file to rally around Obama.

Tic candidates can usually count on the left-wing hive instinct to overcome a lot of problems.  As 2006 showed, the right can’t.