Let’s say you need to measure the presence of a chemical in the atmosphere. Since we’re talking politics, let’s say that chemical is methane gas.
You’ve been smelling methane in the air (because there are politicians nearby, or so you’re told).
You have a methane gauge. You look at its specs; it says its sensitivity is down to 10 parts per million – which is fairly sensitive. You take a measurement, and the gauge says zero.
Does it mean that there’s no methane in the atmosphere?
Or does it mean that there are 9.985 parts per million, which is just a tad too low for your gauge’s sensitivity? Because if that’s the case, then your measurement does not mean there’s no methane – it means your instrumentation can’t detect it.
The point: if you’re trying to measure something, your results will only be as valid as your instrumentation is sensitive.
Via Gary Gross, we see that Washington County is running a vote fraud investigation, focusing for the most part on 11 felons (so far) trying to vote even though they haven’t gotten that right restored. There are other items of interest, of course:
[A WashCo prosecutor] said two more people were being charged late Tuesday afternoon. And there were other cases still being investigated. Investigators were also looking into allegations that the same person voted in both Wisconsin and Minnesota in the 2010 election.
Now, with the Voter ID bill coursing its way through the GOP-controlled legislature, the assembled Twin Cities leftymedia has been taking their shots at Voter ID and, more germanely (since 26 states already require some sort of ID to vote including “proressive” cesspools like Hawaii, Michigan, Connecticut,, Delaware and Washington, and two more will require it by New Years, and democracy seems to be standing) the notion that there is just no need for it because “Minnesota elections are already free of fraud”.
From the U of M’s Minnesota Daily:
Supporters claim requiring a photo ID to vote is crucial to prevent voter fraud and ensure the reliability of Minnesota’s voting system. But voter fraud is an extremely minor problem in Minnesota. In 2008, of the almost 3 million ballots cast in Minnesota, there were a grand total of 47 people charged with voter fraud, only four of which were charges of double voting.
Remember the methane gauge?
If you measure convictions, you’re measuring the extent to which county prosecutors and police troubled themselves to investigate claims of voter fraud. Those 47 chargers of voter fraud were what remained from hundreds of cases referred to them in one county, Ramsey, by the Minnesota Majority. Those 47 cases were the slam-dunk, open-and-shut cases where a felon had signed a piece of paper saying they acknowledged that they knew they had to stay out of polling places, and that they’d be breaking the law if they tried.
For the rest? It happens that voter fraud is one of the areas where ignorance of the law is a defense; saying “I didn’t know”, and not having a parole form acknowledging that y9u really did know, is enough to make a county prosecutor close the folder and say “Well, fair enough then!”
Don’t try that with a parking ticket.
So Mark Rithie can say “there are only 47 cases of fraud” with a straight face – because, like the methane gauge, the system isn’t designed to detect and deal with fraud.
And saying “we have no fraud” is the same as our friend at the top of the article saying “we have no methane”.
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