Fun With Lambert
By Mitch Berg
Someone emailed me to ask what I thought about Brian Lambert’s take on the latest round of ratings.
What the heck; it’s always good entertainment.
I’ll ask you to remember one thing that, for some of you (and you know who I’m talking about), might seem counterintuitive; while I am a conservative host (part-time, anyway), I’m also very, very clinical about the business itself. [Pacino on] It’s not personal. It’s business. [/Pacino off] As I’ve noted in the past, I could probably do a better job of making the local Air America affiliate successful than whomever Janet Robert has doing it now. Not that I’m going to; I’m just saying.
So let’s go to Lambert (whom the Rake has absorbed, along with Deb Caulfield-Rybak):
In response to thunderous demand for radio ratings statistics — a task I find strangely titillating — the Slaughter offers these snapshots of what Twin Cities listeners say they were tuned to over the past summer.
The disclaimer I will always issue is that as they are currently handled, by volunteers filling in written diaries, the Arbitrons have about as much scientific validity as The Flat Earth Society. The game will change dramatically when the so-called Portable People Meters, devices that accurately record what people are actually listening to, as opposed to what they remember, or prefer to think they were listening to, hits this market. But until then, the radio industry lives and dies by these things, and the patterns — even with constantly shifting volunteers — are pretty static.
True. With one important caveat; Arbitron’s method is notoriously…no, notoriously fickle with stations with smaller numbers.
Here are the rankings for the top 15 local commercial stations, among adult listeners 25-54.
STATION…..2006…….2007
KQRS ………….11.1…….11.0
It truly amazes me what a juggernaut KQ has become…
KS95……………5.9……..7.0
…or that KS95 is hanging in there at all, much less this far up the rankings.
K102……………9.2……..6.7
Wow. Great job, Clear Channel! Gassing Mick Anselmo did you a world of good!
JACK……………5.0……..5.8
On the other hand, that makes me happy. Jack is my favorite “conventional” music station (although I’ve found myself listening to MPR Classical more and more lately)
The Evil Talk Empire continues its post-Limbaugh languish…:
(Tie)KSTP-AM…….3.4……..3.8
With its consultants’ view that “conservative talk is dead” still undisturbed in its’ cabinet at Hubbard HQ, I betcha the winter book, sans the Twins (not to mention next summer, with a rebuilding team) is going to huuuuuuurt.
WCCO……………4.7……..2.9
This astounds me; WCCO is unravelling.
And this…:
KTLK……………2.3……..1.9
KTLK fired program director (and my old KSTP colleague) Doug Westerman; I can’t imagine that dropping “The Limbaugh Station” into freefall made ’em very happy (although sources tell me Westerman didn’t have much more actual programming authority than did the manager of the Caribou across the street from Clear Channel Twin Cities’ studios).
Finally, the important part:
(Tie)Air America…0.6……..0.7
(Tie)The Patriot…1.2……..0.7
So. After three years, the Patriot and AAo’M are tied.
Except we’re not. Remember – this is radio inside baseball, so I am, in fact, very clinical in my approach. My apparent bias toward the Patriot (where I host a show) applies a lot less than you might think:
- A tie may not be a Patriot win, but it’s a loss for AAo’M from a “physics” perspective. Both stations are 5,000 watt AM operations; AAo’M is a 950 Kilocycles, while AM1280 is, obviously, at 1280Kc. The lower an AM station’s frequency, the more range and clarity it has per watt of power; AM950’s signal should cover – very conservatively – 50% more area than 1280’s. And AM950 broadcasts from the heart of the überliberal 5th District.
- As we noted above, Arbitron numbers this far down the standings are notoriously fickle.
- When the numbers are this fickle, it makes no sense for a station to take Arbitron ratings to potential advertisers. They have to rely on demographics and results. So compare advertisers and inventories; by that measure, the Patriot is creaming AAo’M.
- Oh, yeah – to the extent anyone cares about the numbers, the first “Trend” numbers after the summer book show the Patriot up, and AAo’M down. Just saying.
The Patriot has problems; as noted in this space (by many, many commenters as well as me), it’s had a series of frustrating technical glitches leading to hours of dead air, doubled-up commercials and other problems. When those get fixed (and while I don’t want to go into inside-station details, big changes are underway there), it’ll be a huge improvement.:
On the downside, K102, Twins-less WCCO and The Patriot took tough slides in audience levels. Speaking of the Twins though, KSTP-AM can’t be thrilled that their expensive “partnership” with the Twinkies netted them only a meager 0.4 increase in adult listeners. That ain’t good.
It’s worse than that; apparently whatever numbers they got from the Twinks didn’t transfer to any of the station’s regular programs.
Now, to the fun part – drive time:
STATION … AUDIENCE SHARE
KQRS ……..22.9 (Barnard)
Say what you will about Barnard, his personality, his show’s teenage-boy orientation – but speaking purely clinically, it’s kind of fun to be able to watch one of the industry’s most enduring phenomena, year-in, year-out. Barnard is the Walter Peyton of radio; year after year after year, he just continues to dominate.
KS95……….9.3 (Greg & Cheryl)
Not speaking clinically in the least, it’s great to see Greg Thunder (the first Mr. Eleanor Mondale) score. I knew Greg nearly 20 years ago; he’s one of the good guys.
Speaking of good guys:
The Patriot…1.1 (Bennett/Ingraham)
KTLK……….1.0 (Hines/Conry)
AirAmerica….0.5 (Press/Miller)
All of the usual caveats about numbers below 2 points still apply – but this is just plain fun. Forget about Bill Press and Stephanie “The Liberal Laura Ingraham” Miller – the fact that the syndicated Bennett is beating the local legend (and expensive but pointless host) (UPDATE: Ex-host, actually) John Hines is a sign of how badly Clear Channel is handling KTLK. And it’s reportedly worse after 8AM, where the syndie Laura Ingraham is reportedly body-slamming the local (and, honestly, not-bad) Dan Conry in the mid-morning slot.
Now, let’s move to afternoons:
STATION AUDIENCE SHARE
AM1500…5.3 (Soucheray/Thomas)
KTLK…..2.3 (Hannity/Lewis)
AirAm….0.8 (Hartmann/Heaney)
Patriot..0.5 (Medved/Hewitt)
Lewis’ performance is counterintuitive; he should be dominating the late-drive slot against the limpid sportstalker Matt Thomas. Forget Clear Channel – his numbers are a disappointment to me – Lewis is the host I always wanted to be when I grew up.
As to the vital AAo’M vs.Hewitt battle – that’s an interesting question. The Mark Heaney show has expanded to two hours, which merely makes Heaney twice as excruciating. Remember – I’m being pretty clinical here. Heaney is boring enough to be on MPR, but smooth and professional enough for KFAI.
On the other hand, Hewitt’s numbers lately are pretty terrible. Part of that, no doubt, can be chalked up to the inter-election slump that always bedevils conservative talk. Part of it is the Patriot’s technical bugaboos, which seem to be worst in the afternoon (and have even made me tune out). And part of it, perhaps, is that Hugh Hewitt might, perhaps, overestimate the fascination the American people have for the inner workings of the legal system; as someone who is not only a big fan but an acquaintance (whose own radio show owes a lot to support from Hewitt in the first place), there’ve been times where even I get tired of endless insider-noodling about appellate court decisions. Hewitt will benefit when both he and the audience switch into election mode (provided the Patriot gets its’ pernicious technical bugs squared away).
The next year, with a national convention and a presidential election, is going to be the real test.
And (not speaking clinically at all, now), I’m looking forward to it.
November 8th, 2007 at 8:21 am
I remember a few years back when WCCO was out of the first stop in any quarter EVER. They were the first station on the air (1926?) and were in first place every quarter until….early to mid 90’s? Then the big fall.
November 8th, 2007 at 8:57 am
Hines is gone from the KTLK morning show. They canned him.
November 8th, 2007 at 9:19 am
WCCO is #2 for 12+ ratings, so they’re not out of it yet.
What Lambert never remembers to post (although his sour grapes with KTLK and home team forgiveness of AA were subdued this time) is that Air America has virtually no competition. Sure, MPR may sometimes lean left, and KFAI may run Democracy Mao now and then, but neither are exactly major competition. On the other hand the Patriot has Limbaugh and Hannity on KTLK and Bob Davis and Garage Logic on KSTP. 950 is in a blue city with a former host running for Senator who used to run his show from here, and they’re flagging.
November 8th, 2007 at 9:49 am
Heh, I put on KFAI this morning to tune into their blues/old R&B show. Got up early and it wasn’t on yet (starts at 6AM). First think I hear is some rant about Bush/Cheney. Geesh, even at 5:45 AM they are going off on the Pres and VP.
November 8th, 2007 at 11:16 am
Hines is gone from the KTLK morning show. They canned him.
[double-take]
Wow.
Obviously, he made a huge impression, and was missed.
November 8th, 2007 at 11:25 am
What Lambert never remembers to post (although his sour grapes with KTLK and home team forgiveness of AA were subdued this time) is that Air America has virtually no competition.
To be fair to Lambert (which is more than he usually is with anyone), almost nobody gets all the context into “radio ratings” stories – and there’s SO much that’d need to be covered to really do the job justice, and it’d make the vast majority of eyes glaze over. But you’re right, IMO – at least, mostly. To wit…:
Sure, MPR may sometimes lean left, and KFAI may run Democracy Mao now and then, but neither are exactly major competition.
KFAI (where I used to do news) is pretty niche-y (although they’ve going to be increasing their power nearly 25-fold in the next few months). But I suspect that MPR is a big drag on AAo’M’s numbers; most of the “moderate” left of center listeners, I will bet, find MPR more their style.
My theory – and I’ll stand by it – is this. Put people on a left-to-right continuum, with “1” being “Kucinich is a conservative fascist” and “10” being “Buchanan is a comsymp” (and with me around a 7.5). I think the various operations draw audiences like this:
MPR: 2-7
Limbaugh: 5-9.5
The Patriot: 6-10
AirAmerica o’MN: 1-4
KFAI: 1-4 (geographically focused)
KSTP-AM: 4-8
KTLK: 4-8
These are bell curves, by the way, with the edges a bit thin and the middles pretty thick. MPR and Limbaugh cast wide nets; the Patriot is focused to the right (but any operation that puts Michael Medved and Michael Savage on the air only three hours apart can be described as “wide-ranging”)
Just a theory.
November 8th, 2007 at 11:37 am
I was actually given an Arbitron ratings pamphlet a few months ago. I put down a lot of hours for the Patriot. It was pretty cool, they paid me three dollars to fill it out.
any operation that puts Michael Medved and Michael Savage on the air only three hours apart can be described as “wide-ranging”
In Chicago they have them on back-to-back. They also have far fewer technical difficulties. And you can hear the station beyond Madison.
November 8th, 2007 at 12:00 pm
” . . . they paid me three dollars to fill it out.”
Three dollars? How much would a Mexican have charged them?
November 8th, 2007 at 12:05 pm
John Hines gone from KTLK??? Damn, I was reliving my youth in the mornings.
November 8th, 2007 at 12:09 pm
1 PM on the Patriot: Dennis Prager. “Well, sir, we certainly disagree, but I value clarity over agreement”.
9 PM on the Patriot: Michael Savage. “You’re an idiot. I’m tempted to track you down, reach into your throat and pull your lungs out, you liberal scum.”
November 8th, 2007 at 11:44 pm
Hey Mitch, does anyone track the internet side of radio? When I was in Iraq, I listened to Bennett via his website, and the NARN via podcasting. Neither one included advertising, so they can’t claim the extra numbers when talking to sponsers, but is net broadcasting at least factored in to the numbers?
November 8th, 2007 at 11:48 pm
Hey Mitch, do they track the internet side of radio? When I was in Iraq, I listened to Bennett on his website. Down here in Owatonna, I can only get the NARN off the web or by getting the podcasts. Does that figure into the ratings?
November 8th, 2007 at 11:51 pm
Hey Mitch, what about the internet side of radio? When I was in Iraq I could only get NARN through podcast, and here in Owatonna I can only get Bennett via his website. Does the internet get counted in the ratings?
November 9th, 2007 at 3:24 am
KFAI is bumping up their power? Wonderful – I’m a KFAI fan despite some of their programming, and I’d love to get a clearer signal up in the boarder burbs.
November 9th, 2007 at 6:54 am
They’re going from 35 watts (I think) to 900.
Still not mega powerful, but it’ll help.
And despite the underlying politics, as I”ve noted, this is what public radio SHOULD be.
November 9th, 2007 at 7:29 am
I agree 100% – if just for Crap from the Past. They deserved that 89.3 signal far more than MPR did.
I just cofirmed the 30 to 900w boost, which is mostly good. Unfortunately, it appears they’re beamed away from NE Minneapolis and towards St. Paul (where they already have a repeater), which may actually make it worse for those of us up here. At least that’s the FCC maps — I hope they’re a little off.
November 9th, 2007 at 8:07 am
MPR: 2-7
Limbaugh: 5-9.5
The Patriot: 6-10
AirAmerica o’MN: 1-4
KFAI: 1-4 (geographically focused)
KSTP-AM: 4-8
KTLK: 4-8
I don’t listen to MPR, I take Rush in small doses. I listen to the Patriot more than AA and KSTP or ‘The Nieghbor during drive time. That would put me at about a 6/6.5, moving ‘mItch’ to a 8.5/9. I do believe Mitch is at 7.5.
Read in the STRIB Sports section this AM that Barrero is being courted by KSTP since his KFAN contract is due up. That will be interesting.
Flash
November 9th, 2007 at 11:16 am
Hm. Barreiro at KSTP.
Hmmmm.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
He’d make a MUCH better morning show than they have now – or if he’s not a morning person, he’d be a better drivetime followup to Sooch than…er, whatever they have in that slot now.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
November 9th, 2007 at 12:14 pm
http://www.startribune.com/129/story/1537773.html
Broadcast sports: Barreiro gets ‘generous offer’ to leave KFAN
With the radio host’s contract set to expire, it is believed KSTP is trying to hire him, leaving Clear Channel with a decision to make.
KFAN afternoon-drive host Dan Barreiro could be moving up the dial.
Ron Rosenbaum, who represents Barreiro, said Thursday his client has received “a generous offer” from another Twin Cities radio station. Rosenbaum declined to reveal the station but all indications are that it’s Hubbard-owned KSTP (1500 AM). Barreiro’s contract with KFAN (1130 AM) is set to expire Dec. 31.
November 9th, 2007 at 4:03 pm
Hines gone from KTLK is REALLY recent. He was on last week. I distinctly remember him talking to Terry Trippler, the airline guru.
I also find it amazing since he had something like a 16 year successful run as a morning DJ at K102. He went there shortly after WLOL shut down and 99.5 became KSJN. He couldn’t have been doing THAT bad to last 16 years. What a fickle business. Well, with his resume I’m sure he’ll get a job somewhere else. If he’s any smarter than the doltish personality he portrays on the air, he should have plenty of money saved up from 30+ years in the business so that he can float for awhile until something else comes along.
As enjoyable as it was to hear him again (much like Badda), I do have to say I thought his show about everything, anything, and nothing political seemed kinda out of place on a station that is nothing BUT political the other 20 hours of the day.
Or do you think that was another f’ed up consultant recommendation?
November 9th, 2007 at 4:19 pm
On another note Jason Lewis subbed for Rush AGAIN today. That makes 5 separate times in the last few months. He had a 2 day stretch when Rush was on vacation, and he’s done 3 Fridays (including today and last week). Rush must really like what Jason has to say in his absence, and/or Jason must get high ratings and call volume for him to get chosen that often in such a short timeframe. Either one of those can only look good on Jason, regardless of his Arbitron ratings.
And while I’m happy to see him make a good impression, I really hope this isn’t the beginning of Clear Channel pushing him to go national. He is the only weekday conservative in this town who can have any influence on city/county/state politics/lunacy. If he goes national, he won’t be able to spend anywhere close to enough time on local issues, because no one outside of the 5 state area will give a rats ass about Commandant Coleman and Comrade Rybak, LRT or the school districts’ never ending addiction to my our money.
I know Walter Williams (whom I REALLY don’t like – I’d rather listen to the President’s mangling of the language than Walter Williams tripping over his tongue while trying not to let the drool leak out) and Roger Hedgecock from KGO (or is it KOGO) in San Diego are regular subs for Rush. Not sure who else.
November 9th, 2007 at 8:24 pm
I thought KTNF 950 was 1000 watts?
http://www.ontheradio.net/radiostations/ktnfam.aspx