The V Word

People are starting to use the word in polite company – victory.

Michael Ledeen in the WSJ:

Should we declare victory over al Qaeda in the battle of Iraq?

The very question would have seemed proof of dementia only a few months ago, yet now some highly respected military officers, including the commander of Special Forces in Iraq, Gen. Stanley McCrystal, reportedly feel it is justified by the facts on the ground.

These people are not suggesting that the battle is over. They all insist that there is a lot of fighting ahead, and even those who believe that al Qaeda is crashing and burning in a death spiral on the Iraqi battlefields say that the surviving terrorists will still be able to kill coalition forces and Iraqis. But there is relative tranquility across vast areas of Iraq, even in places that had been all but given up for lost barely more than a year ago. It may well be that those who confidently declared the war definitively lost will have to reconsider.

Reconsider – or move the goalposts. Or frantically rewrite history.

In Fallujah, enlisted marines have complained to an officer of my acquaintance: “There’s nobody to shoot here, sir. If it’s just going to be building schools and hospitals, that’s what the Army is for, isn’t it?” Throughout the area, Sunni sheikhs have joined the Marines to drive out al Qaeda, and this template has spread to Diyala Province, and even to many neighborhoods in Baghdad itself, where Shiites are fighting their erstwhile heroes in the Mahdi Army.

The Mahdi Army – the group that not six months ago some said posed an insurmountable obstacle to any meaningful peace between the sects in Iraq.

I’ve written about this change in the war before – here and here and here. As a mere history buff, I can be ignored at the reader’s leisure – indeed, I encourage you, the reader, to take this career civilian and history geek’s writings about warfare with an appropriate block of salt, and read the people who do know.

Things have improved all over the coalition:

British troops are on their way out of Basra, and it was widely expected that Iranian-backed Shiite militias would impose a brutal domination of the city, That hasn’t happened. Lt. Col. Patrick Sanders, stationed near Basra, confirmed that violence in Basra has dropped precipitously in recent weeks. He gives most of the credit to the work of Iraqi soldiers and police.

And on the political battlefield:

As evidence of success mounts, skeptics often say that while military operations have gone well, there is still no sign of political movement to bind up the bloody wounds in the Iraqi body politic. Recent events suggest otherwise. Just a few days ago, Ammar al-Hakim, the son of and presumed successor to the country’s most important Shiite political leader, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, went to Anbar’s capital, Ramadi, to meet with Sunni sheikhs. The act, and his words, were amazing. “Iraq does not belong to the Sunnis or the Shiites alone; nor does it belong to the Arabs or the Kurds and Turkomen,” he said. “Today, we must stand up and declare that Iraq is for all Iraqis.”

Mr. Hakim’s call for national unity mirrors last month’s pilgrimage to Najaf, the epicenter of Iraqi Shiism, by Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi, a Sunni. There he visited Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the top Shiite cleric. The visit symbolically endorsed Mr. Sistani’s role as the most authoritative religious figure in Iraq. Mr. Hashemi has also been working closely with Mr. Hakim’s people, as well as with the Kurds. Elsewhere, similar efforts at ecumenical healing proceed rapidly. As Robert McFarlane reported in these pages, Baghdad’s Anglican Canon, Andrew White, has organized meetings of leading Iraqi Christian, Sunni and Shiite clerics, all of whom called for nation-wide reconciliation.

And on the street:

The Iraqi people seem to be turning against the terrorists, even against those who have been in cahoots with the terror masters in Tehran. As Col. Sanders puts it, “while we were down in Basra, an awful lot of the violence against us was enabled, sponsored and equipped by. . . Iran. [But] what has united a lot of the militias was a sense of Iraqi nationalism, and they resent interference by Iran.”

You do need to read the whole thing – since the mainstream media will likely not hint at any of it until the Democrats have figured out how to spin the results to their electoral benefit.

Of course, it’s bad form to talk too soon – and the military is making a point of avoiding the “V” word. And so will I.

But Ledeen hits hard on the “core values” of fighting a counterinsurgency war:

The turnaround took place because we started to defeat the terrorists, at a time that roughly coincides with the surge. There is a tendency to treat the surge as a mere increase in numbers, but its most important component was the change in doctrine. Instead of keeping too many of our soldiers off the battlefield in remote and heavily fortified mega-bases, we put them into the field. Instead of reacting to the terrorists’ initiatives, we went after them. No longer were we going to maintain the polite fiction that we were in Iraq to train the locals so that they could fight the war. Instead, we aggressively engaged our enemies. It was at that point that the Iraqi people placed their decisive bet.

Read it and use it.

17 thoughts on “The V Word

  1. “”Of course, it’s bad form to talk too soon – and the military is making a point of avoiding the “V” word.””

    The premature declaration of ‘Mission accomplished’ has both the Administration and the military careful in their future proclamations.

    I am not afraid to say I want Victory, but am unsure what victory really is. Is it a dead/defunk/defeated AQ, is it democracy in Iraq, is it more . . or less than that. I simply am not sure. But I do know, like has been said here, is that there will be no peace treaty signed on the deck of same fancy ship, or the gilded halls of some palatial estate. Because this enemy is different, and distant, and transient, even itinerant.

    What I do know, is that the president stated in January, when he announced the surge, that he would be turning over Iraqi security to the Iraqis in November. And that is only a few weeks away. That, to me, was going to be the first signal of victory. Let’s see who moves the goal posts now.

    Flash

  2. There will always be terrorists and you would think Iraq would be the frontline for many years. Unless the bad guys are getting fedup and are going to go somewhere else to kill. Someplace where they don’t have to face the US armed forces.

  3. With AQI out of the way, we need a war-fighting expert like Rudy to go after local sectarian militias carrying out the remaining 95% of the war.

    Giuliani’s watched enough Yankees’ games to know which reliever to call out of the bull pen, and his city’s been attacked by terrorists enough times to know where to deploy our troops.

    He’s the perfect mixture of Steinbrenner and Eisenhower.
    /jc

  4. I scrolled the thread up and away before I could read “slash”‘s post. I’m going to assume it was yet another faux-Colbert-style exercise in hamfisted overbroad japery disguised as “satire?”

    I’d almost bet money on it.

    I’ll scroll up in a bit…

  5. Satire? About a war?

    Wars are complicated business. Lots of factions, lots of alliances, lots of ins, lots of outs. You need an expert like a big city mayor to figure that kind of stuff out, not some procrastinating Dolphin fan in search of distraction.

    I leave the satire and my wars to the professionals.
    /jc

  6. Not so fast, Slash. If the wingnut magic wand can give us a win in Iraq, think what it can do for the Dolphins. Angryclown smells Superbowl victory!

  7. AC, maybe if (when) we do win in Iraq, let’s hope AQ doesn’t sue to have our victory overturned. They could start in the 9th circuit. When it hits the Supreme Court, I’m sure Ruth “Buzzy” Ginsberg will rule against America. Since she like to use foreign law in her decisions, maybe she will use Iranian or Syrian laws to decide.

  8. Sucks when some scumbag sues to overturn your your win, eh? Anyone know if Jeb’s girlfriend is in charge of counting Iraq KIA?

  9. For the life of me, I can’t grok the heaps and piles of scrinched and wadded undergarments that resulted from the “Mission Accomplished” banner.

    As President Bush said:

    “Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the Battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed. And now our coalition is engaged in securing and reconstructing that country.”

    That was true. Hussein’s regime was no longer a going concern. Bush also said:

    “We have difficult work to do in Iraq. We are bringing order to parts of that country that remain dangerous. We are pursuing and finding leaders of the old regime, who will be held to account for their crimes. We have begun the search for hidden chemical and biological weapons, and already know of hundreds of sites that will be investigated. We are helping to rebuild Iraq, where the dictator built palaces for himself, instead of hospitals and schools. And we will stand with the new leaders of Iraq as they establish a government of, by, and for the Iraqi people. The transition from dictatorship to democracy will take time, but it is worth every effort. Our coalition will stay until our work is done. And then we will leave — and we will leave behind a free Iraq.”

    One can certainly fault the Bush Administration for not going about the post-invasion phase wisely, but they certainly weren’t saying all was sunny meadows and roses now.

    They were celebrating the fall of Hussein, and it should have been celebrated.

  10. Cause spiking the ball on your own 30-yard-line is kinda, not to put too fine a point on it, friggin’ stupid, Chachi.

  11. Joanie,

    To put a fine point on it,

    “Mission” = removing Hussein regime,

    not,

    “Mission” = Iraq is now a hottier, drier Switzerland

  12. “Major combat operations in Iraq have ended.”

    I wish somebody would tell the insurgents that. Look Jeff, regardless of your opinion on what we should be doing right now in Iraq you have to admit that the banner was an ill-advised stunt.

    They were celebrating the fall of Hussein, and it should have been celebrated.

    Denied. They should have been strategerizing. AC’s metaphor is apt.

  13. I really think some people could benefit by looking up the definition of the word ‘mission’. Unless the ‘benefit’ they are looking for is the one Jeff pointed out.

  14. Continuous failure among those too weak to admit it to themselves requires recalibrating your expectations. No one was saying at the time that the Mission was merely removing Saddam. Every professional that has spoken out now says it was obvious – then – that simple act could not be the end game. The rank amateurs in charge of policy couldn’t see this of course. They created a power vacuum in a volatile part of the world because not only were they amateurs, but they were too arrogant to listen to the professionals. As Dirty Harry said – a good man knows his limitations – what does that make the BA inner circle? Any business not owned by the family of ots leaders would have fired these guys long, long ago.

    Note the spear thumpers are ignoring all the Generals who are taking the unusual step of criticizing the policy makers. The majority opinion in the leadership class of the US military now believes the policy is so bad the opportunity was lost (read the polls at Military Times).

    Redefine The Mission – the only hope. It now depends on what the meaning of “is” is.

  15. Please, PLEASE! Declare victory and then leave.

    Honorable Peace, wasn’t that the term in Vietnam.. it would mean about as much.

    See, you’d leave the whole MUCH larger problem behind, that you created, that you were warned about – and declare victory over an organization that didn’t exist prior to your invasion that cost $1 Trillion dollars. Let the Back-Slapping BEGIN!! and Mitch, nothing, ever, anywhere, has ever been done in quiet company by Neo-Cons. Any possibility of self-aggrandizement is shouted to the highest rafters, even when it might compromise an intelligence operation.

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