The Definition Of Who “Likely” Is

When I saw last Friday that Randy Demmer was five points behind Walz in the First District (the southern tier of counties), I thought it was good news.  Walz’s last challenger lost by 30-odd points in the middle of the Obamascension.

And seeing that the poll surveyed 36% Dems and 32% Republicans in what is generally considered to be a slightly GOP-leaning district in normal times

…and add in the fact that these are not normal times, with Walz’s buddies in the Obama Administration gutting Medicare, favoring Cap ‘n Tax policies that’ll shred agribusiness, and turning the district’s major industry, the Mayo, into a Minute Clinic in a strip mall along Highway 52…

…and I have to suspect that the poll is a tad pessmistic for Demmer.

Again, just a hunch.

Let the “you are teh stooped Fauxmusen suportar” comments begin.

14 thoughts on “The Definition Of Who “Likely” Is

  1. Pingback: Tweets that mention Shot in the Dark » Blog Archive » The Definition Of Who “Likely” Is -- Topsy.com

  2. Sample rates are going to be off this year. Normally reliable polls are going to get some races wrong by quite a bit.

  3. Look to the generic polling, both likely voters and trending. The “enthusiasm gap” is comparable to the one in 2008. That bodes ill for the Democrat party.

  4. Yesterday you posted about Minnesota Democrats proposing a resolution supporting the domestic terrorists in St Paul, and how these people call for the annilation of the state of Israel. Welll, timely.

    Big color picture on the front page of the St Paul paper today, the group is shown……very lily white. and the head of them is in a post that looks like he is going on a rant against international jewery.

  5. Chuck, I disagree emphatically that Minnesota Democrats seek the annihilation of Israel, or support any form of terrorism, foreign or domestic. Nor are they anti-Semitic.

    What many people, both Democrats and Independents object to are things like the events summed up by this:
    http://www.juancole.com/2010/10/israeli-taliban-torch-palestinian-girls-school-destroy-olive-trees.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+juancole%2Fymbn+%28Informed+Comment%29

    What you claim Chuck is a chronic distortion, not factual. Shame on you for that.

    There are bad things done by both sides in the Israel / Palestinian situation. The solution for peace requires both sides cease those actions instead of perpetuating the conflict, respecting BOTH sides are entitled to exist.

  6. Dog, did you read Mitch’s post from yesterday? Several Democrat representatives introduces a resolution supporting the terrorists, and Mitch, via a another blog, posted the charter of said group.

    Both sides are to blame in the Mideast? Let’s see…the Palistinian-Arabs want to exterminate the Jew. The Jew doesn’t want to be exterminated. There can be no compormise. Even if we killed 6 million Jews, the other side would still not be satisfied.

  7. Chuck, don’t mess with Dog’s moral equivilence, it’s a foundation of liberal, non-rational thought.

  8. Doggy;

    Chuck beat me to it, but I reiterate.

    Liberal Democrats constantly support terrorists with their condemnation of Israel or its’ actions.

    Quite frankly, I can’t for the life of me understand how any Jew could align with that morally corrupt party. Of course, the ones that do so are usually trust funders.

  9. Deegee, I’ve heard the the “relief convoy” contained a cargo of “molotov cocktails” constructed with empty Victory gin bottles….would we find your fingerprints on any of those?

    Why do leftists hate Jews, Deegee?

  10. “swiftee Says:

    October 20th, 2010 at 2:19 pm
    Deegee, I’ve heard the the “relief convoy” contained a cargo of “molotov cocktails” constructed with empty Victory gin bottles….would we find your fingerprints on any of those?

    Why do leftists hate Jews, Deegee?”

    Do you believe any garbage you read or hear, so long as it supports your position Swiftee – regardless of any factual basis? Seems so. Of do you have proof of he molotov cocktail story that holds up to scrutiny? I couldn’t find such proof, I doubt you can either. Why do you and others hate Palestinians, Swiftee? Are you one of the narrow-minded bigoted homophobes, who knows nothing about other religions?

    I’ve been to Israel, I do NOT – adamantly I do not – support people wishing to wipe Israel off the map, or killing Jews – any Jews, anywhere.

    That doesn’t mean that I give a free pass to Israeli actions that are just as bad – unlike you. Bosshoss, your statement about Jews and politics is just as ill-founded. The majority of those who support Democrats are NOT ‘trust funders’.

    A small piece of context to your assumptions about persecution of Jews – two of my family members did a genealogy search on my family and discovered that back in the 16th century they were Jews in Switzerland, and then moved to Germany, who were forced to convert, first to Roman Catholicism, then to being Lutheran.

    So, while as an adopted child, there does not appear to be any indication that I can claim to be of Jewish descent, my family does, at least in part. I’m very cognizant of anti-semitic atrocities in history – it was one of the recurrent themes in the series I had been writing on history.

    I recognize that the vicious cycle of aggression and hostility has to stop – on both sides, OR this will continue, these events will periodicall escalate, and there will never be peace.

    What I recognize here is a willingness on the part of your commenters to believe any evil thing of people who have a different political view, to engage in vile distortion, without factual proof, relying only on ideology to drive it. Be careful of throwing stones accusing others of belonging to morally currupt parties boss.

  11. Doggie claimed What I recognize here is a willingness on the part of your commenters to believe any evil thing of people who have a different political view
    What she doesn’t recognize is when her statements are soundly rebutted. Or she doesn’t care. Six of one, half dozen of the other.

  12. Personally I congratulate Dog Gone for sticking out here in a hostile environment.
    It’s a lot less saring to post a “The Republicans are stoopid fascists!” comment on one of the liberal blogs.

  13. Oops! “daring”.
    (I’m commenting in my living room with the lights turned down, watching Disney’s Fantasia, a Hallowe’en tradition at my house.)

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.