The latest SurveyUSA/KSTP poll has Dayton up by five – with a margin of almost four points.
After a steady stream of TV ads and roughly two dozen debates, Minnesota’s race for governor remains without a clear front-runner.
DFLer Mark Dayton is the leader in the latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll with 42 percent. He’s five points ahead of Republican Tom Emmer, who came in with 37 percent. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner is at 14 percent.
I haven’t seen any crosstabs or anything about the methodology – and I’ll follow up when I do.
My theory – none of the likely voter models properly accounts for the enthusiasm and turnout anomalies in a “wave” election.
(CYNICAL MITCH chimes in: “or how many Democrat “likely voters” are dead, or voting in more than three precincts”)
Long story short – don’t let the media get you down. Emmer’s gonna win by three.