It’s All About Numbers
By Mitch Berg
The latest SurveyUSA/KSTP poll has Dayton up by five – with a margin of almost four points.
After a steady stream of TV ads and roughly two dozen debates, Minnesota’s race for governor remains without a clear front-runner.
DFLer Mark Dayton is the leader in the latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll with 42 percent. He’s five points ahead of Republican Tom Emmer, who came in with 37 percent. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner is at 14 percent.
I haven’t seen any crosstabs or anything about the methodology – and I’ll follow up when I do.
My theory – none of the likely voter models properly accounts for the enthusiasm and turnout anomalies in a “wave” election.
(CYNICAL MITCH chimes in: “or how many Democrat “likely voters” are dead, or voting in more than three precincts”)
Long story short – don’t let the media get you down. Emmer’s gonna win by three.
October 15th, 2010 at 10:56 am
My theory – Mitch is sad 🙁
October 15th, 2010 at 11:11 am
Nope!
I’m so freaking jazzed I don’t even need coffee in the morning. Emmer’s going to win – it’ll be very close, maybe closer than the three I predict, but he’s gonna win. Kline by 30. Bachmann by 10, maybe 12. Paulsen by 8-10. I think there’s a 50-50 chance Demmer pulls off a squeaker, and I think Cravaack hasd a great shot at the upset, maybe Byberg too – and in both of those districts, traditionally, getting within twenty is a moral victory; I don’t think a Republican has gotten within thirty of Oberstar more than once in the past 20 years.
I’ve got friends saying Collett’s even got a shot. I’m not going to go crazy here, but her showing is going to knock McCollum on her heels even if she doesn’t win.
Sad? Good lord, why? I’ve got a talk show during the golden age of conservative talk; I have a conservative blog at the heart of an epic underdog revolution; I’m a conservative at the tip of the tidal wave.
Sad? Pffft. Don’t flatter the DFL.
October 15th, 2010 at 11:14 am
My theory — the Emmer campaign needs to stop the Marquess of Queensbury stuff and start hammering Brave Sir Mark. A Dayton administration would be disastrous.
October 15th, 2010 at 11:50 am
I haven’t given up yet, but Emmer had better put the campaign in gear soon. Trouble is, I could have been more impressed Monday night with the Emmer officials present.
It’s a Republican year, we’re right on the issues, we have a buffoon and a martinet for opponents. And yet: where is the Sharon Angle fire in Tom Emmer’s belly?
October 15th, 2010 at 1:56 pm
[…] in Minnesota for KSTP-TV, Emmer is just outside the margin of error, five back of Dayton (via Mitch Berg): DFLer Mark Dayton is the leader in the latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll with 42 percent. He’s […]
October 15th, 2010 at 2:22 pm
Amen, MrD.
Marquess of Queensbury rules are why the DFL/Dems are so freaking arrogant and bullying, and why we eternally fight double standards in everything we do/say. It’s the same thing with the US forces vs Al Qaeda and other assorted terrorists: When you play by rules your enemy is not playing by, you will lose/die. (And yes, I am fully willing for this to be interpreted as a nice way of me saying WATERBOARD THEIR ASSES, to divert the topic momentarily)
The parallels to this and the sadly far-too-common incidents of bullies picking on smaller kids on the playground, only to get no punishment, or worse yet, the picked on kid gets punishment when he finally stands up to the bully, are amazingly close.
October 15th, 2010 at 4:34 pm
Bill C;
“And yes, I am fully willing for this to be interpreted as a nice way of me saying WATERBOARD THEIR ASSES, to divert the topic momentarily)”
A man after my own heart!
October 15th, 2010 at 5:09 pm
Waterboarding should be an Olympic sport!
October 15th, 2010 at 5:54 pm
Hummina hijack the thread. Who is the ONE person in this world that you really, really, REALLY would like to see waterboarded?
October 15th, 2010 at 6:12 pm
Hummina hijack the thread. Who is the ONE person in this world that you really, really, REALLY would like to see waterboarded?
Hmmm. Aquaman?
October 16th, 2010 at 10:01 pm
[…] Shot in the Dark » Blog Archive » It’s All About Numbers // pWP 82% for Dayton, which raises the average pWP across the last several polls to 75% (tags: elections2010 mnpolitics MOB) […]
October 16th, 2010 at 10:31 pm
Who is the ONE person in this world that you really, really, REALLY would like to see waterboarded?
Bear Gryllis
Seriously tho…
In the ‘We’re better than that’ argument, my response is “I prefer that others, who WANT TO KILL US, experience great discomfort and fear for their lives, as opposed to our people not experiencing…you know…DEATH.
October 18th, 2010 at 2:03 pm
“Who is the ONE person in this world that you really, really, REALLY would like to see waterboarded?”
Michael Moore, or Keith Olberman, or Fast Eddie Schultz, or Lady Gaga……….darn it’s hard to settle on one when there’s just so many to choose from.