Again – I eschew conspiracy theories. I really, truly do.
But let’s look at some possibly (?) unconnected factoids:
Who’s The Outlier? The Rasmussen Poll has been broadly accurate, nationwide, for the past couple of years. This past year or so, it’s been chronicling a rise in GOP sentiment nationwide. It’s been especially interesting watching it chart Barack Obama’s fall from polling grace; on a given week, Rasmussen may show Obama a point or two lower than every other poll; lefties chant “It’s the Foxmussen poll!”; a week or two later, Gallup/Quinnipiac/Marist settle in at the numbers Rasmussen had, while Rasmussen shows another point drop. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Pattern Of Behavior: The Star Tribune editorial board is liberal. That usually, but not exclusively, means “DFL”; there’s a running rumor that the Strib editorial board is talking about endorsing Tom Horner (a fiendishly clever plan, really; ;they can brag they “endorsed a Republican”, while actually supporting someone whose policies are moderate-DFL). Above all, they do not want Tom Emmer as governor.
Institutional Imperative: The Hubert H. Humphrey Institute is a part of the U of Minnesota. It’s a building on the campus that is as clogged with left-of-center academics and pseudoacademics and past-their-shelf-life DFL politicians as any building in the state this side of Saint Paul City Hall. It’s a safe bet they don’t want Tom Emmer as governor – especially given that “higher education” is the only area where Emmer’s budget makes substantial, actual cuts in the state budget.
Follow The Budget Cut: Tom Emmer has spoken about the commensense case for withdrawing state subsidies from Minnesota Public Radio.
It’s not like they don’t get plenty of money. MPR’s studios are to regular commercial stations (or even less well-heeled public stations) as “CTU” from 24 was to a regular police station. When I was at KSTP, someone doing my job (or maybe a little less) at MPR made 50% more than I did; I’m not sure if MPR’s salaries have skyrocketed, but I do know that the salaries in commercial radio have not. And MPR’s reach goes waaaay beyond Minnesota with stations in Michigan and…um, Sun Valley Idaho? Why, yes; there’s a longstanding rumor in local broadcast circles that the Sun Valley station was built with the aid of a generous contribution from one Dayton family that didn’t want to miss “Praire Home Companion” while out on the slopes.
MPR staff will respond “but our subsidy isn’t that big!” So if the subsidy isn’t that big, and your organization is diong so very, very well, perhaps it is something they could give up For A Better Minnesota? Anyway – MPR faces a choice; a governor with sympathies toward allowing MPR to go its own way, or one that is, let’s just say, a top contributor.
(And yes, I repeat – I do believe MPR News does an acceptable job of seeking balance and detachment. Not perfect – nobody is – but they take a better shot at it than the Strib. That said, Tom Scheck, why hasn’t anyone gone over Mark Dayton’s budget with a fine-tooth comb?)
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I’m not saying that any of these factors mean that the Strib, the Humphrey Institute or MPR would commission polls that, a month before the election, would present skewed numbers to build up voter turnout for the party that was most likely to support them.
I”m just saying that if they did, I’m not sure how the poll results would be any different.
Just a hypothesis…
Tom Emmer is lousy candidate, running a lousy campaign ergo he’s losing.
No conspiracy necessary — it’s just various groups of people acting in their own self-interest. That some (Humphrey Institute, MPR) assert that their self-interests are actually the general interest doesn’t change things one bit.
A little early to be boozed up, isn’t it Timmy? Oh, wait…you’re Irish. Never mind!
Why, yes; there’s a longstanding rumor in local broadcast circles that the Sun Valley station was built with the aid of a generous contribution from one Dayton family that didn’t want to miss “Praire Home Companion” while out on the slopes.
Just…wow.
*shakes head*
padraigtim in St. Paul. Ever the intelligent commenter.
If the polling is biased it probably isn’t a means to achieving greater DFL turnout on election day. Instead it’s probably meant to help with fund raising.
MPR & NPR love their relatively small government subsidies for the same reason.
Tim in SP is the inbred, genetically defective, offspring of kleptoparasitic English fops left in an Irish nest.
We should have pushed him out a ling time ago.
pad rag tim, The poll that counts is in November. The Redstar can poll all of its subscribers if it wants but it won’t change the outcome.
Emmer is a terrible candidate? Dayton is our Jerry Brown, Senator Moonbeam instead of Governor.
VP Slow Joe Biden will be in town next week to stump for Congenital Idiot Dayton. All of that brain power on one stage. Imagine, they could collectively power a bug zapper.
Fundraising right after a good poll comes out from a DFL organization. Yep.
He’s the only Republican gov candidate in the midwest losing. Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois! are going to flip R.
Dayton is a joke.
But by all means shot the messenger(s).
Tim-
Even way out here in the middle of the Pacific I can determine that Dayton is a looney. Manic-depressive, feelings of inferiority, and a dry drunk to boot. If Emmer loses it means that he has run a terrible campaign, even with a 3rd party run by Horner.
I don’t think that you can separate “bad candidate” from “bad campaign”. The campaign defines the candidate. Look at Obama — he gives a good speech, when he is in front of the right audience, and he’s got a Harvard Law degree but otherwise he’s always been a medium-size fish in the shark tank of local Illinois politics.
the only Republican gov candidate in the midwest losing
Did I fall asleep and wake up on November 3?
Tim Palwenty was “losing” in most polls in October – in BOTH races.
Never underestimate the stupidity of the Minnesota voter *cough* Al Franken *cough*.
Tim simply underscores this reality.
The number that caught me by surprise is Emmer at 27%, that is BS. Even in the primaries when Emmer was being pummled by ABM his low was 30%. I’d say adjusting for the oversampling of DFLers and them proping up Horner (no bleeping way he’s at 18%) I’d add 5-7% minimum to Emmers numbers which means this race is virtually a tossup.
II don’t know why it is so objectionable to point that Emmer is under performing as GOP gov candidate relative to the generic GOP House and Senate and relative to geographically similar governor races.
Is Wisconsin some how less liberal then Minnesota? Is Iowa? There is no way either Iowa or Wisconsin dems are running a candidate worse Mark Dayton.
In the words of his former press sectretary
But Dayton is still Mark Dayton, a guy who utterly wasted a term in the U.S. Senate, who gave his own performance an “F”, …who may be the oddest duck who ever gained so high a standing in Minnesota politics … and I ask to think about that one for a while, if you will.
…When has Dayton ever demonstrated the consistent, long-term ability to interact productively with political allies and rivals? Get back to me when you have an answer to that.
Again. Why is Tom Emmer losing to this idiot?
so the answers so far are
1) he’s not. vested interests are conspiring against him
2) Minnesota voters are stupid as opposed Wisconsin, Iowa, everyone else in the country
3) he’ll win in the end
Well 3 is great. I’m voting for Emmer and I hope he wins. But I don’t think he going to. The numbers are bad and I don’t feel any momentum swinging to him. Maybe its not his fault, maybe people are sick of Tim and want a different direction.
But I think this was easy pickings. Its a GOP year. Dayton is the easiest beat ever.
I stand by my point. Candidate and the campaign.
#2, without a doubt.
I don’t know why it is so objectionable to point that Emmer is under performing as GOP gov candidate relative to the generic GOP House and Senate and relative to geographically similar governor races.
I’m not certain he is. Two polls with bias problems show that. If Rasmussen or Survey USA show a similar result, then I’d concede the point. We should know soon.
Is Wisconsin some how less liberal then Minnesota? Is Iowa? There is no way either Iowa or Wisconsin dems are running a candidate worse Mark Dayton.
Emmer is from the incumbent party in Minnesota. The incumbents in Wisconsin and Iowa are Democrats. You allude to that later on in your post.
Well 3 is great. I’m voting for Emmer and I hope he wins. But I don’t think he going to. The numbers are bad and I don’t feel any momentum swinging to him.
Watch the next two weeks or so. We’ll see a lot more visible activity from all the candidates and Emmer will be on television a lot more. That makes a difference.
Maybe its not his fault, maybe people are sick of Tim and want a different direction.
Maybe.
The point is this: the purpose of these polls is to discourage Emmer supporters. You can choose to believe them if you wish, but there’s no reason to believe that Dayton has picked up momentum in the last week or two.
Think about it. What would have driven Dayton’s momentum? Most of the attention he’s received in the past few weeks has been surprisingly derisive media coverage of his attempts (oops, I mean failures) to come up with a budget plan that balances. Besides that, Dayton has been mostly off television in commercials for the last week or two. Hey, maybe that’s it!