The lastest KSTP-Survey USA poll shows Michele Bachmann up over Tarryl Clark by nine points with four months ’til the election.
Someone named “Alec”, a “diarist” at Minnesota “Progressive” Project, has a Matthews-y tingle running down his leg:
Someone else can write a nice front page post, but I am very excited by this. Bachmann 48, Clark 39. MOE 4%. Hard to believe the IP candidate only got 6%. With no name recognition, Clark is only down by 9. Bachmann is below 50% and her name rec is universal.
Four months ’til the election, with Clark benefitting from a blitz of advertising and friendly-to-fawning coverage in the Twin Cities media, before Bachmann has even really started seriously campaigning. Seriously – Bachmann has yet to spend figurative dime one on her campaign. There is no need to, not yet.
The “name recognition” is a red herring, too; all Bachmann’s negatives are in play, but Clark – a tax-and-spendaholic in a year and a district where that should be poisonous this fall – has only started to turn people off. As “Alec” notes, she has no name recognition; that may be the best thing going for her so far.
And given the polarization of the numbers in the KSTP poll, I’m going to suspect that independents – who are breaking GOP nationwide – are not really sounding off yet.
Joe “Chloe” Bodell comments:
We’ll dig into the numbers later — but thanks to Alec for getting the news out to the ‘sphere.
This is good-to-great news, folks. – promoted by Joe Bodell)
Well, run this good-to-great news; at this point in 2006 and 2006, if memory serves (and I believe it does, but stop me if I’m wrong) Patty Wetterling was around nine points back in a bad GOP year, and Elwin “E-Tink” Tinklenburg was closer than that two years ago in a much, much worse year.
I’ve been predicting an eight-point Bachmann win by November. I’m seeing no reason not to be optimistic.
A lot can happen in four months, of course.
Gary Gross also covers the topic.
Your memory does not serve. Tinklenberg — a far worse candidate than Clark — was back 13 points in August of 2008. He went on to lose by only 3 points. http://www.pollster.com/polls/mn/08-mn-06-ge-bvt.php
Does that put Clark on pace to beat Bachmann? Probably not, in this year’s climate. But Bachmann being up by 9 isn’t as comfortable a position as it sounds.
We are seeing wall to wall Terrible Taryl ads targeting Bachmann. We have been seeing them for weeks now. If people don’t know who Clark is, it’s only because Clark has no message other than “my opponent is bad”.
The Democrats campaign this year reminds me of the pathetic races run by Coleman and McCain in 08.
“Tarryl’s not Sarah Palin or Michele Bachmann or George W. Bush or Ronald Reagan or Norm Coleman or Tim Pawlenty or…”
Michele Bachmann! BP! Michele Bachmann! BP! Michele Bachmann! BP!
Michele Bachmann! BP!
Tarryl is an empty pants suit.
The thing I’ve noticed is that all the ads for the DFL candidates have essentially had each trying to boast that they’ll be the bigger pimp for Education Minnesota than the other guy. There’s not much message other than that and “raise taxes on the rich” for any DFLer out there.
The thing I’ve noticed is that all the ads for the DFL candidates have essentially had each trying to boast that they’ll be the bigger pimp for Education Minnesota than the other guy. There’s not much message other than that and “raise taxes on the rich” for any DFLer out there.
Those aren’t ads. They are auction bids. Once we hit August 11, we’re supposed to pretend we never saw any of that.
We should give these poor birdbrains some slack.
They’ve been eating assclown’s patented sh1t tacos for a year, why would we be surprised to learn they’ve been washing them down with Victory gin and Kool-aid.
Mitch, you’re just mad that someone else is using your “my candidate is behind in the polls; that’s great news!” bit.
Disco,
Huh?
Your memory does not serve. Tinklenberg — a far worse candidate than Clark [“Objection! Speculation based on facts not in evidence!” – Ed] — was back 13 points in August of 2008. He went on to lose by only 3 points. http://www.pollster.com/polls/mn/08-mn-06-ge-bvt.php
OK, fair enough; a candidate with statewide name recognition and legislative AND executive experience managed to come back by one more point than the current deficit – in the worst year for Republicans since Gerald Ford’s presidency, with a full Obamassianic tailwind, and after the RNC threw Bachmann under the bus.
Perfect comparison!
Does that put Clark on pace to beat Bachmann? Probably not, in this year’s climate. But Bachmann being up by 9 isn’t as comfortable a position as it sounds.
No, but given that Bachmann has yet to buy her first TV ad or make her first dedicated campaign swing through the district, and that Clark has been running ads forever (to help Saint Cloudians protect against off-shore drilling in the Mississippi, apparently) with a full-blown media effort to put wind in her sails, it’s not as tenuous as “Alec”, Bodell or you might like either.
fwiw, I listed the 2006 polls in a True North post here…
http://tinyurl.com/2c4qohd
Huh?
You like to talk about polls where conservatives are behind and spin them to mean that the conservative is doing well. It sounds like that’s what the MPP person is doing, and you are obviously angry that he’s stepping on your toes. 🙂
Are you going to write about the Grumpy’s self-defense shooting, by the way?
“Are you going to write about the Grumpy’s self-defense shooting, by the way?”
I didn’t hear about that, can you provide a link Disco?
You like to talk about polls where conservatives are behind and spin them to mean that the conservative is doing well.
I”m not aware that I’ve ever “spun” such a poll.
I have, in many cases, noted – correctly, in most cases – that many polls grossly overpoll Democrats. This is particularly true with the Minnesota Poll, which always overpolls DFLers.
It sounds like that’s what the MPP person is doing, and you are obviously angry that he’s stepping on your toes.
Anyone who finds “anger” in my bagging on M”P”P is reading something I’m not writing. I bag on M”P”P with the same sort of glee I get from shooting .22s at cans. Except the can is usually better at writing about politics.
Are you going to write about the Grumpy’s self-defense shooting, by the way?
I might, but then I know nothing about it so far.
Are you going to write about the Grumpy’s self-defense shooting, by the way?
Bouncer plugs knife wielding patron with properly permitted pistol (PPP).
Word on the street is that the initial reaction was slow because the neighbors thought the gunfire was just a bunch of drunk cops leaving the “two-two” and shooting streetlights on the way to Mayslacks again.
The lack of urine marked walls in the area suggested that was not the case.
Folks, lets be sensible here. It’s not like MB could get
Ack sorry. It’s not like MB could get past the index for the district. That’s the real measure. Is she losing folks who voted for her before? Is she increasing her margin from last time. It’s not like she will convert hard core DFLers in Stillwater and St. Cloud. She has won a series of 3 way races and so is already starting out lower than 50 percent, but she has this incredible ability to hold her base. Depending on how her campaign goes, she should be able to build on her margin this year given the national tendencies. Speaking of which, there is a national one to underplay republican leads as “not as big a blowout as expected.” Good luck with that spin.
swiftee Says: “Word on the street is that the initial reaction was slow because the neighbors thought the gunfire was just a bunch of drunk cops leaving the “two-two” and shooting streetlights on the way to Mayslacks again. The lack of urine marked walls in the area suggested that was not the case.”
Absolutely priceless; Thanks swiftee!!!
Mitch, as you guys like to say, “Lighten up.” The smiley face is usually a give-away that it’s a joke.
On the other hand, the next time you say the liberal media doesn’t cover self-defense shootings, I’ll keep in mind that even when they do, you don’t see it.
http://www.twincities.com/ci_15501486?IADID=Search-www.twincities.com-www.twincities.com
Oh, I’ve seen it. I haven’t had my head in the local crime beat this past few weeks.
However, I WILL be watching the Grumpy’s incident; after the travesty and miscarriage that was the Treptow incident, vigilance is important.
And yeah, that includes the media too.
the next time you say the liberal media doesn’t cover self-defense shootings
Objectively? They don’t, not for the most part. They occasionally get it right – it’d seem so far they’re doing a decent job on this last incident. But can we count the number of times that the MSM has carried news of a shooting when people assumed it was a big bad gun crime, and then clammed up when they found it was a law-abiding citizen with a justified shoot?
As the great sage once said, I’ll keep in mind that even when they do, you don’t see it.
🙂 <---smiley.
I’ll point out the shooter wasn’t arrested, for whichever commentor claimed that was Minneapolis policy a while back, and end my thread hijack with apologies.
If Bachmann starts falling behind in the polls I’ll send her an out-of-state donation.
Given that her legal education is superior to Obama’s, she may be able to shame him into following the constitution.
Terry,
That’s just DogGone bait.