Fearless Predictions
By Mitch Berg
This is my first round of predictions for this cycle. It’s neither complete nor final.
Second CD: John Kline wins by eight.
Third CD: Erik Paulsen beats Brian Barnes by 14.
Sixth CD: MIchele Bachmann beats Jim Graves by at least 12, setting a pattern – Bachmann wins by double digits – that stands until at least 2020 (and who knows what the next round of redistricting will do).
Eight CD: For all their money the Dems pour into this race, Cravaack wins by two.
OK – your turn.
October 15th, 2012 at 8:37 am
Itasca and St Louis counties won’t report in until late afternoon wednesday but they will report 100% and 102% voter turnout respectively. Even with all that help Cravaack wins by 1.
October 15th, 2012 at 9:16 am
My feeling is that Chip has more support in St. Louis County than he’s being given credit for. He’s even picked up some union endorsements — admittedly unusual for a conservative but some people up here see that Cravaack has tried very hard in places Oberstar never did, such as with PolyMet and with genuine job creation efforts. Chip FTW. Two points or better.
October 15th, 2012 at 9:29 am
I read somewhere that Cravaack lives out east even though he is elected to represent MN. Is that right? I realize Bachmann lives outside her new district, but this is due to recent redistricting. However, Cravaack’s relocation seems extreme.
I don’t think Cravaack will win, but it will be a close race. He doesn’t have the 2010 TEA party momentum behind him this time. It seems like the TEA party is DOA this year.
October 15th, 2012 at 9:41 am
Keep smoking the crack pipe there, inSanity! Your typical libturd hypocrisy is showing, AGAIN! I guess it was OK that Jim Oberstar didn’t live in the district for more than 15 years, but he kept getting re-elected running on lies, only visiting the district for brief periods at election time! In contrast, in just under two years, Chip Cravaack has shown up to meet with and in general has done more for the people in his district ACCIDENTALLY than Oberstar did on purpose in 20!
October 15th, 2012 at 9:46 am
Where did Oberstar live?
October 15th, 2012 at 9:53 am
“Sanity”
He had a legal residence in the district whose door he rarely darkened. He spent the vast majority of his time in DC.
I read somewhere that Cravaack lives out east even though he is elected to represent MN. Is that right?
You “read somewhere?” Well, who can argue with that elite level of research skill!
Cravaack has a place in New Hampshire. His family spends time there during the session. Cravaack lives in the 8th CD more than Oberstar ever did.
I realize Bachmann lives outside her new district, but this is due to recent redistricting. However, Cravaack’s relocation seems extreme.
Only if you believe the twaddle peddled on leftyblogs without digging into it at all.
I don’t think Cravaack will win, but it will be a close race. He doesn’t have the 2010 TEA party momentum behind him this time. It seems like the TEA party is DOA this year.
Wrong again. The Tea Party isn’t spending time waving signs – but they’re raising money, volunteering and pounding pavement. Which is a whole lot more productive.
The Tea Party is a major force in this election, at least in part because they’re spending less time demonstrating and more time doing retail politics.
And Cravaack’s Tea Party support is being augmented by a lot of union people who realize that the Dems are going to kill the mining industry again.
October 15th, 2012 at 10:22 am
“I read somewhere that. . . ”
Cue this commercial: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bufTna0WArc
In case you’re wondering, Sanity, you’re the girl in that commercial.
October 15th, 2012 at 10:24 am
According to our friends over at True North, Minnesota is in play(!!!?) This just in: the Hubert Humphrey grave site has been churning up massive amounts of dirt from some sort of seismic anomaly.
October 15th, 2012 at 11:16 am
Fearless predictions: Amy the Shadow wins the Senate seat reportedly held by someone named Klobuchar. Obama takes Minnesota. Picture ID will pass, Homosexual “marriage” amendment will fail.
Several precincts in Minneapolis and St. Paul will report vote totals in excess of registered voters.
October 15th, 2012 at 12:25 pm
“…who writes under the single nom de plume of Kermit.” – Dog Gone
Seeuentee the factchecker strikes again.
October 15th, 2012 at 2:06 pm
Rick Nolan enjoyed his previous campaign against Henry Sibley a lot more than this one. BTW, he loses narrowly, as does Pat Kreitlow in neighboring WI-7, ensuring the Northwoods Conservative Resurgence continues unabated.
And yes, Kline, Bachmann and Paulsen win easily.
October 15th, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Bachmann won’t win easily. Graves was just put on the red-to-blue list, and that doesn’t happen unless the race is close. Graves campaign is saying they are up 15% among independents. That’s huge.
Bachmann herself has been whining about how close this race is, and she’s been constantly asking for money from her donors because it is so close.
Just sayin’.
October 15th, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Hernandez by 2 in the Fourth. (If I write it, it will come…. if I write it, it will come….)
October 15th, 2012 at 3:13 pm
Ah, Cravaack. I read about his family’s move to NH in the Strib. I just googled it, and I found this cute video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B95yLhikyac
October 15th, 2012 at 3:20 pm
“Wrong again. The Tea Party isn’t spending time waving signs – but they’re raising money, volunteering and pounding pavement. Which is a whole lot more productive.
The Tea Party is a major force in this election, at least in part because they’re spending less time demonstrating and more time doing retail politics.”
I haven’t received any mailings from the TEA party. I do receive mailings from the Republican party (Romney calls me his friend), Taxpayer League, and right wing PACs. I don’t hear anyone talking about the TEA party in my community. The buzz just isn’t there about TEA party as it was in 2010, and those candidates who were out as TEA partiers in 2010 seem to be distancing themselves from that label this time around. I’m in a swing district, so that could have something to do with it.
October 15th, 2012 at 3:32 pm
““…who writes under the single nom de plume of Kermit.” – Dog Gone”
Where did that come from? At least it’s my real name.
October 15th, 2012 at 3:36 pm
“Sanity”
Bachmann won’t win easily. Graves was just put on the red-to-blue list, and that doesn’t happen unless the race is close.
Like Wetterling, Tinklenberg and Clark? They were all “supposed to be close”; only E-Tink actually was (with the aid of an epic Dem turnou).
Graves campaign is saying they are up 15% among independents. That’s huge.
Internal polling. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Bachmann herself has been whining about how close this race is, and she’s been constantly asking for money from her donors because it is so close.
a) If a conservative orders a pizza in the woods and no liberal is listening, are they still “whining?”
b) It’s only smart to play the race like it is close. She loses nothing by ending the race with extra money.
I haven’t received any mailings from the TEA party
Er, that’s because the Tea Party has no single leadership or central office to mail anything to anyone. It’s a decentralized bunch of groups, few of them named “Tea”-anything. If you would like to get mail from a Tea Party, you could try the Southwest Tea Party in Chanhassen or the North Central Tea Party in the north metro – both are intensely active and happen to have “tea” in the name.
. I do receive mailings from the Republican party (Romney calls me his friend), Taxpayer League, and right wing PACs. I don’t hear anyone talking about the TEA party in my community.
How about Frank Rich in the NYtimes? He’s a terrible writer, but check out the article.
How about the crushing convention and primary wins by Dave Osmek and Cindy Pugh in SD33/HD33B? Tea Party activists pushed the two over the GOP-favored legacy picks in both cases; when they are elected (and both will be, by 20-odd points), they will make the GOP majority just that bit more conservative. They are just two races from a convention and primary season that saw candidates in line with the Tea Party further push the moderates to the rear of the MNGOP.
The buzz just isn’t there about TEA party as it was in 2010, and those candidates who were out as TEA partiers in 2010 seem to be distancing themselves from that label this time around
Sorry, “Sanity”; you’re suffering from Pauline Kael syndrome. The name may bounce around a little less, and there are fewer people out waving signs at rallies – but at the caucuses, conventions and the primary ballot boxes (and in three weeks, at the polls)? It’s every bit as powerful as it was two years ago. Maybe moreso; it focuses its efforts with ruthless efficiency and effectiveness these days.
October 15th, 2012 at 3:52 pm
Sanity, you need to get out of your mommy’s basement more! I attended the weekly meeting of SW Metro Tea Party last week! There were at least 100 people there, probably more. In fact, you might want to come out for tonight’s meeting. You might learn something more than what you are being fed by the left wing media. Keep dreaming of your utopian world where the government takes care of your every whim, tells you what to do and say, then watches you like a hawk to make sure that you do! All of you liberats are a bunch of slaves on the DemocRAT plantation!
October 15th, 2012 at 4:00 pm
Lefty insanity is illustrated by those who simultaneously claim that the Tea Party isn’t a factor in this election and is also so powerful that all of the GOP is in thrall to it.
Goes along with the “Romney is a hard core ideologue and a wishy-washy waffler!”
October 15th, 2012 at 8:15 pm
Mitch:
If a large chunk of Kline’s former 20% + margins goes to the first Walz might be gone.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
October 15th, 2012 at 8:43 pm
Kermit
“Where did that come from?”
apparently you wrote something on Anti-Strib that DG couldn’t let pass – look for a 10.11.12 post on the peeve blog titled something like “Is Feminizing a BAD thing? Are we ‘feminizing our schools”? HELL NO ” (I won’t provide a direct link because no one should be needlessly exposed to the peeve blog)
the fact challenged fact-checker from heck is now hot on your trail – expect long soporific diatribes aimed your way – possibly followed by a frightening cease and desist letter from one of those world class lawyers peeve has lying about his back yard in fashionable south bloomington if you don’t shape up and only indulge in free speech that DG approves.
October 15th, 2012 at 8:56 pm
“Sanity”
Where did you get that “up 15 among indies” bit?
I’d call BS, but I’ll give you a chance first.
October 15th, 2012 at 9:17 pm
” the Tea Party isn’t a factor in this election and is also so powerful that all of the GOP is in thrall to it.”
I hope you are right!!
“Where did you get that “up 15 among indies” bit?”
It was in this article, but I the wording is confusing. It’s not clear whether he meant to say Graves is up 15% with indies only (which is the way I interpreted it) or he is up 15% overall (not likely!):
http://www.salon.com/2012/10/15/national_dems_boost_bachmann_challenger//
Graves has made huge inroads with moderate Republicans and business republicans, which makes sense because he is a successful self-made business man and job creator.
Mitch, you have access to Republican party internal polling, right? What is that telling you?
October 15th, 2012 at 9:27 pm
” It’s every bit as powerful as it was two years ago. Maybe moreso; it focuses its efforts with ruthless efficiency and effectiveness these days.”
This is very interesting. As Romney tries to run to the middle he has further to go (apparently).
October 15th, 2012 at 9:37 pm
A key factor in Bachmann’s race is the fact that there is no third candidate to siphon off votes this time. In her race against Clark (last time) Bob Anderson took 8% of the vote. In her race against Tinklenberg the third candidate took (Bob Anderson) took 10% of the vote. Binkowski took 8% in the run against Wetterling.
This time there is no third candidate. That fact alone will make the race much closer.
October 15th, 2012 at 10:23 pm
2 predictions, Fields hits 40% in CD5 and Romney wins MN 52-48
October 15th, 2012 at 10:27 pm
That would be incredible. A Republican hasn’t won the presidential race in MN since 1972 (Nixon).
http://www.270towin.com/states/Minnesota
October 15th, 2012 at 10:41 pm
Even with Mondale on the ticket Carter couldn’t get 50% of the MN vote in 1980. Normally I would say that John Anderson’s votes would have gone to Reagan, but the MN GOP was much more liberal in 1980 than it is today.
October 15th, 2012 at 10:45 pm
I wrote:
” the Tea Party isn’t a factor in this election and is also so powerful that all of the GOP is in thrall to it.”
To which “Sanity” replied:
I hope you are right!!
It’s an either/or proposition, “Sanity”.
October 16th, 2012 at 5:52 am
Anderson was a “Moderate Republican” with a passably conservative message. He was not your typical DFL-castoff IPer: he took plenty of votes from Bachmann.
October 16th, 2012 at 1:34 pm
Kermit, what kel said.