There are two types of people in the world; the kind that relentlessly sort people into neat taxonomies, and those who don’t.

Likewise, pundits (amateur and pro) fall into two camps; the ones that focus on the jerseys running around on the field, and the ones that look up in the stands to see what the crowd is doing.

Dave Mindeman at MnpACT looks at Tom Emmer’s choice of Annette Meeks as running mate and counts jerseys.

Well, first of all it tells us a little about what DOESN’T concern Mr. Emmer.

1) No help for geographic balance. Meeks is not a legislator. She does not have any natural constituency. She provides no special geographic advantage.

File this under “counting the jerseys on the field”. 

Which isn’t to say that there’s not some value in the conventional wisdom that tickets in Minnesota need to balance the Metro and outstate. 

But there are two flaws to the conventional wisdom:

1. For purposes of getting votes from people who will actually vote Republican – party sympathizers and anyone who can be convinced to be a sympathizer before November – Emmer is balanced, in and of himself.  He’s from the third-ring suburbs, which to0 the conventional wisdom are neither here nor there, but to conservative thought are pretty much the state’s center of gravity.   And, perhaps more importantly…
2. …while regional provincialism is usually very important in Minnesota campaigning, Emmer is banking, for this election, on there being a bigger dynamic at work; revulsion with excessive spending and ruinous taxation.  It’s not a real long shot.

Mindeman continues (and I”ll add emphasis):

2) No offset for ideologic balance. Meeks is a consummate party insider. She will have little name recognition outside of the political junkie subset. And she specializes in conservative public policy. Emmer seems to be telling us that Minnesota wants a right of center governing policy. Independents and Democrats don’t matter.

Again with the jersey-counting.  Look up in the stands.

Conventional wisdom among the jersey counters is that to attract someone who doesn’t agree with you right out of the gate, you need to give them something – a running mate, in this case – who does, as a sort of shiny object to distract them.   In other words, the conventional wisdom is that the GOP needs to “move to the center” to attract voters.

Emmer is taking a different tack; he’s going to spend the next six months giving voters in the “middle” a reason to move “right”.  Except it’s not a matter of left and right; it’s a matter of irresponsible versus prudent; sanity versus madness.  The future of this state and its prosperity is not  a partisan issue!

And Democrats and Independents “matter” not as passive populations to be appeased with potemkin place-holders, but in the way that actually complements their intelligence and dignity as humans; as people to be convinced.

And while it’s arguably risky, Emmer’s got two things going for him:

1. People across the board are very open to the message of fiscal prudence.  Even Democrats are getting scared of Obama’s, and Kelliher’s, lust for taxing and spending.
2. Tom Emmer does a great job of presenting his case to the unconvinced.  I’ve heard him on, of all things, Marty Owings’ “Radio Free Nation”, a left-leaning internet talk show, absolutely kill at explaining why fiscal conservatism works to a hostile but polite audience.   (And while I”ve never heard Marty Seifert face that kind of crowd, I’m told he excels as well).

Convincing the middle to move “right” is what put Ronald Reagan in office.  Emmer, being the single strongest stump speaker in Minnesota politics today, is easily equipped to do the same.

Secondly, the Meeks choice tells us some things that do matter to Emmer…..

1) Special Interests have a say.

Ah.  But those stalwart independents Kelliher, Dayton and Entenza will show us the way on that count, right?

Some of the speculation centered around an early preference for Linda Runbeck, but MCCL intervened….

MCCL staffers did express concern to Emmer’s people about Runbeck, said executive director Scott Fischbach. In 1994, Runbeck was among several Republican lawmakers who changed their votes and tabled legislation that would have required women to wait 24 hours before having an abortion.

Obviously, Emmer fears pressure from MCCL.

Well, the MCCL is certainly a powerful group.  But there are a few other points against the “speculated” (by whom?  when?  in what context?  Mindeman apparently doesn’t feel that’s important enough to tell us) rumored Runbeck candidacy is that she’s been out of public life for a long time, and her last appearance was a tough loss to Betty McCollum. 

That just might have played a role.

He talks the talk about standing up to lobbyists, yet walks the line for the first interest group that weighs in on his first decision making process. How strong are those individual principles?

For my part, I’ll await word the MCCL was “the first” group, or that Mindeman’s unsourced quote had anything to do with the decision.

But I won’t hold my breath.  While Emmer is pro-life, he’s no puppet of the single-issue social conservatives.  One of my most memorable interviews in the history of the NARN was at the State Fair last summer.  Ed and I were talking with Emmer.  Someone in the audience asked him what he thought about gay marriage.

“I don’t care”. 

It is, realistically, not an issue the Governor of Minnesota will ever deal with; it’s of no import.   But wouldn’t a puppet of the socialcons, speaking to the Patriot audience (the very embodiment of the conservative base) have toed the line?

Take Mindeman’s claim with a big block of salt.

2) Feels the Need for Stronger Public Policy Credentials. Emmer seems to be responding here to some criticism of his depth of knowledge in public policy.

Meeks likely will help blunt criticism that Emmer has weak knowledge of public policy and the issues facing the state.

His answer to that criticism is to embrace an academic. Meeks has no actual legislative credentials. She fosters and works inside think tanks. She is a member of the Met Council, but Emmer has openly talked about abolishing that entity. And Meeks herself, has published a paper which made the case for abolishing the office of Lt. Governor.

Right.  She’s no toady.  She’s got a mind of her own (unlike, for example, the DFL’s nominee).

Articulating public policy is far different from implementing it. Meeks can explain the logic of what she thinks should be done, but to put it into practice with real people and real budgets, well, that is quite a different story.

True.

If only there were someone on the ticket with years of experience in the Legislature. 

Emmer has indirectly told us a lot about his decision making process by this first real personnell decision. If Emmer wins the endorsement, and it seems likely at this point, then he will have locked the party into a conservative right ideology. Making a broader, more centrist case to the general public will be difficult.

Which may be a gamble.

And then again, this year, with the Tea Party at his back and the DFL noodling around with four more months of deciding between Same Old and Same Old, it might not be.

And it would seem that Emmer would be comfortable with that. The Emmer/Meeks ticket seems to be designed for another 45 to 47% maximum electoral vote strategy. With Tom Horner as the likely IP candidate, that isn’t going to work.

Only if everything breaks down by conventional wisdom – by counting jerseys.  Which is Mindeman’s game, and that’s just fine.  But…

Emmer has kept himself within the GOP/Tea Party bubble. He doesn’t look like a candidate who will reach out and broaden his base of support. He believes his current base is enough.

…the idea, this year, is to bring that huge, discontented middle over to the good guys.

It was a gamble 30 years ago when Ronald Reagan did exactly the same thing.

Is the time right?

Whether Emmer or Seifert wins the nomination, I’m pretty happy with the prospects.

This entry was posted by by Mitch Berg on Wednesday, April 28th, 2010 at 12:05 pm and is filed under Campaign '10, Conservatism, MNGOP. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.