Shot in the Dark

History Is Blank Verse

December 6, 1941: “A modern war would inevitably turn into a trench quagmire like the First World War”

June 24, 1950: “The next war will be, at best, a mobile industrial clash of titans, and likeliy end with mutual nuclear annihilation”

March 7, 1965: “This war is going to be a conventional war to contain Communist aggression”

August 1, 1990: “This war is going to devolve into a quagmire that will destroy a generation and enervate a nation”

October 3, 1993: “American technological power and training will enable us to walk all over these primitive tribesmen, and restore order just the way we did in Kuwait”

October 18, 2001: “As we discovered in Mogadishu, the Islamist terrorist’s willingness to die will make any war between us an endless quagmore

March 19, 2003: “American technological prowess and our experience liberating Afghanistan in record time will enable us to prevail against the Iraqi Army, Republican Guard and Fedayeen in short order.

June 22, 2025: “Iran will inevitably be another Iraq”.

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Mitch Berg

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10 responses to “History Is Blank Verse”

  1. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    Unless there is a meaningful regime change (and no, I am not for nation building, it has to come from the inside), Mitch will be digging up another quote a few years, if not months, from now.

  2. Mitch Berg Avatar
    Mitch Berg

    JPA,

    Right. This is about the idea that everyone fights the last war. Including the people who are against this and/or the next one.

  3. John "Bigman" Jones Avatar
    John “Bigman” Jones

    Good point, Mitch. What we need is some forward thinking people who can imagine the next war early enough that we can prepare for it. Some hints might come from studying present conflicts:

    Semi-trucks hauling containerized cargo of drones to swarm air defenses.

    Pager bombs (long lead time but if you could get them into the newest Apple release, people would line up for blocks to steal them off trucks).

    Ordinary autos driven into festivals, but with a twist: car bomb detonates when the EMTs arrive

    The Chinese just made two satellites link up – could they be arming hunter-killer satellites intended to knock out GPS and communications satellites to blind us to their attack?

    Weaponized crop-killing fungus smuggled into the heartland. Weaponized sterility virus needle-jabbed at a concert. Weaponized computer virus to shut down air traffic control or welfare check processing or oil refinery operations.

    Put on our thinking caps, people. Let’s be part of the solution.

  4. John "Bigman" Jones Avatar
    John “Bigman” Jones

    Of course, it might help if we also had some non-technical philosophy-type thinkers to help establish the goal of the next war.

    Are we in it to Win it? I mean “win” in the historical Middle East context: kill the men, take the women as slaves, parcel out the conquered lands to our people. Think of Joshua leading the tribes of Israel through Canaan.

    Are we in it to Rule it? I mean “rule” in the Roman sense: kill their men until they surrender, install a governor to collect tribute, leave an occupying force to put down uprisings, parcel out the conquered lands to our people and those of theirs who cooperate in suppressing their neighbors. Think Pontius Pilate and Herod.

    Are we in it to Profit from it? I mean “profit” in the historical American sense: kill enough men that they surrender, install one of their people as a puppet dictator, force them to sell to us at controlled prices. Think Shah of Iran.

    Are we in it for live-fire training (Grenada), for regime change (Iraq), for virtue-signaling (Bosnia), or to divert attention from domestic policy failures (Afghanistan)? I’d argue none of these was a sufficient reason to send Americans into harm’s way but we did in the past. Should we in the future?

    Knowing our goal helps determine our strategy and tactics. If we want to parcel out conquered lands to our friends, we had better not nuke those lands into glassy craters glowing in the dark. But if our goal is to end the threat of Islam forever . . . ?

    What is our goal in the next war?

  5. John "Bigman" Jones Avatar
    John “Bigman” Jones

    A buddy linked me to this article:

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2025/06/24/nato-nervously-awaits-godzilla-trumps-arrival-pre-stage-agreement-for-big-spending-increase/

    I’d love to hear Trump say:

    “The nations of Europe are reluctant to commit to spending substantial money on defense. That’s because they get it for free, from us, so why should they pay for it? They’re asking the wrong question. The right question is why should WE pay for it? America has been bailing Europe out of their wars for 100 years. Enough is enough. I’m directing the Secretary of Defense to begin plans to draw down our forces in Europe. If called upon to honor an Article 5 NATO commitment, we can send people and equipment when needed. But there’s no reason for us to subsidize an entire continent with our ongoing presence. Europe can see to its own defense.”

  6. Greg Avatar
    Greg

    Keep an eye on that European defense spending. A goodly proportion of it is for defense infrastructure….. So okay, that means upgrading roads, bridges and railways to accommodate military equipment.

    In other words, every time a NATO member replaces a road, a bridge or upgrades a railroad track – that’s defense spending.

  7. ArthurRadley Avatar
    ArthurRadley

    Marjory Taylor Green on X
    “There was once a great President that the American people loved. He opposed Israel’s nuclear program. And then he was assassinated”.

    Well yes, where Israel’s program consisted of Mossad stealing tech and materials.

    But that was way back when Israel was just making it’s first down payments on Congress. These days a simple text from AIPAC saying “knock off the antisemitism, boychick!” Does he trick.

  8. In The Mailbox: 06.25.25 (Evening Edition) : The Other McCain

    […] So Many Rich Socialists? Shark Tank: Floridians Can Count On Senator Ashley Moody Shot In The Dark: History Is Blank Verse, also, A Policy Proposal The Political Hat: The Trump Tram Ride This Ain’t Hell: Illegal […]

  9. bikebubba Avatar
    bikebubba

    Hope that MTG pays for that asinine and anti-semitic comment with her job. It is hard enough to get Republicans elected without people like her suggesting to the electorate that a portion of the GOP visits Auschwitz on nostalgia tours.

    People like, apparently, Radley/a.k.a. “Kremlin Tom”.

  10. SmithStCrx Avatar
    SmithStCrx

    Greg,
    The good news is that even the actual defense spending portion is an upgrade from the current 2% requirement. So even if they don’t make the new percentage, they might actually reach the 2% they haven’t been bothering with up till now. We can hope.
    It’s also telling that the countries that are meeting their Treaty Obligations are the ones like Poland that remember the Soviet boot and are within easy striking distance.

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