Derek “Chief” Brigham over at Freedom Dogs has taken an unscientific (!!!) poll of Minnesota conservative bloggers for the gubernatorial race. Unsurprisingly, Tom Emmer won, bigtime.
I’m listed under the “Has a candidate, but isn’t spilling it publicly yet” category, along with David Strom, Margaret Martin and Sue Jeffers. The fact is, with the departure of Dave Hann from the race, I am leaning in one direction – but I’m not going to say which one yet. Partly because, hello, I’m a schmuck blogger and nobody cares what I think. Partly because it’s early, and I could still change my mind, depending on how this session goes. And partly because, hello, do I want to get the other candidate’s people cheesed off at me so they’ll never appear on the NARN again?
And mainly because the fact is, whichever one wins the nomination, I’ll back him 100%, along with pretty much the entire MNGOP slate. While I’ve never considered myself a straight ticket voter, the only DFLers I’ve been able to justify voting for since the mid-nineties have been Norm Coleman and Randy Kelly. As to the Independence Party? Get serious. Jim Gibson’s Senate candidacy was the only IP bid I’ve ever considered voting for (and I didn’t; Rod Grams needed my vote more). The GOP, imperfect as it is, is the only party in Minnesota that covers most of what I believe in and has any impact on the way this state is run (shaddap, Constitution Party).
Over on Facebook, a DFL-leaning lobbyist asked what kind of record conservative bloggers have at predicting general elections. The answer is “none”; we’re not the general public.
What it does predict, I think, is a spirited endorsement process and State Convention, the kind that’s going to lead to a much better GOP effort in the fall.
Eight years ago, MNGOP establishment candidate Tim Pawlenty had lukewarm support from a conservative wing that’d been ignored for decades, but which was gaining power. Their candidate, Brian Sullivan, ran a highly successful insurgency, driving the final convention race out to 560 ballots over the course of 467 straight hours of voting at the 2002 MNGOP convention; he only clinched the nomination when he took the Taxpayer’s League’s “No New Taxes” pledge, promising to spend his term(s) as a fiscal hawk – something that’d never have happened without the Sullivan challenge. Would Brian Sullivan have won the general election had he gotten the nomination? We’ll never know; conventional wisdom was that he was “too conservative”, but Roger Moe was a bit of a stiff, and probably a lot more vulnerable than the keepers of the “conventional wisdom” want to admit. But in a sense he, and his supporters, did win; their insurgency pushed Pawlenty to adopt a key piece of Sullivan’s platform, in a sense perhaps the most important one.
This year? The delegate count is shaping up pretty tight so far, although there’s a long, long way to go. Emmer’s done a good job of staying in front of the Tea Party, but Seifert’s organization is a formidable one.
The point being that, from where I sit, either Seifert, the establishment candidate, or Emmer the conservative firebrand, will make a better governor than any of the vacuous hamsters the DFL is putting forward. And an imperfect “good enough”, whether it’s an imperfect conservative (who’s been driven to the right by the Tea Party and an Emmer push) or an unrepentant Conservative (who’s got the whole MNGOP working for him) is going to be better than any of the alternatives.
The state convention is going to be insane Mitch, you going to be there? Maybe we could figure out a way as bloggers to wield some power and make our voices heard in the party instead of shouting from the sidelines.
The point being that, from where I sit, either Seifert, the establishment candidate, or Emmer the conservative firebrand, will make a better governor than any of the vacuous hamsters the DFL is putting forward.
Yep. And while many of us are on Emmer’s side, if Seifert prevails I would support him without hesitation.
“Maybe we could figure out a way as bloggers to wield some power ”
become a delegate…
Just curious,
would a Hann endorsement sway your opinion?
Not sure.
“And while many of us are on Emmer’s side, if Seifert prevails I would support him without hesitation.”
I tend to try to support the most conservative most electable candidate.
MoN I know I was implying that after we become delegates we form a group or something on the floor, having a MOB fraction on the floor could cause some interesting situations.
Chief emailed me to ask my preference, and I said Emmer. The reason being Seifert IS part of the MNGOP establishment. That said, Like Mr. D I will support him if he wins the endorsement. Governor Anderson-Kelliher is just too horrid to contemplate. Governor Dayton would be worse than Governor Ventura. Governor Marty might spark an armed insurrection.
they are going to beat the crap out of each other in the primary battle, Dayton might be able to buy the nomination but since the state has already totally rejected him (and he’s a moron). Besides Emmer or Seifert could run circles around Dayton in a debate. I went to that 20 person governor debate back last month and Dayton’s answer to everything was raise taxes on the rich, the rich aren’t paying their fair share. Plus he’s also a big jerk.
Hann just endorsed Seifert.
Move me from leaning to committed.
Kermit Says: “Governor Anderson-Kelliher is just too horrid to contemplate. Governor Dayton would be worse than Governor Ventura. Governor Marty might spark an armed insurrection.”
Kerm please! The thought of any of these clowns becoming governor has me bordering on IBS!
Hann just endorsed Seifert.
Hm. Interesting.
Haste makes waste.
Sounds like a bit of an establishment endorsment from Hann, no?
Still slightly leaning toward Emmer.
How is Hann more establishment than Brod?
Seifert is more establishment than Emmer.
I would expect Seifert to get more endorsements simply because, being more establishment, there is more, shall we say, encouragement to endorse the establishment. 😉
The relevant question is which of the two is more electable. We should not lose sight of the fact that the point of all of this is to hold and exercise power.
The first question is which of the two is more conservative, then we ask mnbubba’s question on electability once you have the backing of the establishment.
Man, all this talk of the “establishment.” Take a shower hippies!
Overheard in an Emmer campaign office
“Don’t worry Tom, Hann was just a neoconn establishment RINO”.
Mitch wrote:”Partly because, hello, I’m a schmuck blogger and nobody cares what I think. ”
You’re too modest.
Enough with the Vasoline please. Y’all know that Pawlenty is now just chum until you get someone else. Vacuous hamsters, please, get real. $10,000 dollars of lies per $1 of truth, is what you are all up against. You got the money but not enough. The truth writes itself, even Lileks knows that. I see XXXL on all of your foreheads.
Dear Mr. Classy:
Enough with the Vasoline please.
With a DFL House and Senate? No such thing as “enough VasEline”.
Y’all know that Pawlenty is now just chum until you get someone else.
Er, “chum” in what way? You do realize he’s not running for Governor again, right?
Vacuous hamsters, please, get real. $10,000 dollars of lies per $1 of truth, is what you are all up against.
Hm. Doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue. But that’d be irrelevant if you had something of substance to show that 1/10,000 ratio you’re talking about.
Got anything?
You got the money but not enough.
Er…huh?
The truth writes itself, even Lileks knows that. I see XXXL on all of your foreheads.
Uh huh.
And I see “USDA Choice” on yours.
Please bring actual data, rather than platitude and non-sequitur.
dekay Says: “Enough with the Vasoline please. Y’all know that Pawlenty is now just chum until you get someone else. Vacuous hamsters, please, get real. $10,000 dollars of lies per $1 of truth, is what you are all up against. You got the money but not enough. The truth writes itself, even Lileks knows that. I see XXXL on all of your foreheads.”
PFFT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“And I see “USDA Choice” on yours.”
*cue Archie Bunker*