A good defense is a good defense
By Jeff Kouba
The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission was established to “review the national security implications of trade and economic ties between the United States and the People’s Republic of China”.
Last week they held a day-long hearing with eleven witnesses on “China’s Activities and Influence in South and Central Asia.” Topics included China’s Interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan, China’s Reach in Central Asia, China’s Influence in Continental South Asia, and Competing Visions for the Indian Ocean.
As part of the latter, Christopher K. Colley outlined China’s naval goals, especially as they apply to the Indian Ocean, saying “the American navy is the driving force behind China’s security concerns in the IOR.” Written testimony is here.
The greatest structural change in the Chinese navy in terms of strategy and tactics is the transformation of a navy based on regional defense and access denial, to a force that is firmly inline with power projection and blue water capabilities. Such an evolution is a conscience decision by the top levels of the Chinese government to build a navy that has the ability to project sustained and meaningful power to locations thousands of miles from Chinese home ports. This transformation is one of the most critical developments in the security architecture of the Twenty-First Century.
Last week, before a full committee hearing of the House Armed Services Committee, Adm Gilday, Chief of Naval Operation, spoke about the growing strength of China’s navy. Written testimony is here.
Over the past two decades, the PRC has built a comprehensive sea-denial, anti-access system of sophisticated sensors and long-range precision weapons. Backed by a robust industrial base and the largest shipbuilding infrastructure in the world, the PRC has extensively modernized its military and tripled the size of the People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN). It is also building next-generation strategic missile submarines, erecting hundreds of new missile silos, and growing its cyber and space capabilities.
Under the cover of this anti-access umbrella, the PRC has embraced the use of “gray zone” activities to turn incremental gains into long-term strategic advantages. Using a multi-layered fleet of naval ships, maritime militia, and coast guard, the PRC is undermining international norms by staking illegal maritime claims, militarizing geographic features in the South and East China Seas, and intimidating its neighbors regarding offshore resources. Additionally, the PRC is extending its global reach with its Belt and Road Initiative—leveraging predatory lending practices, aggressive mercantilism backed, and hard military power—to access critical maritime terrain, ports, and waterways.
Given China’s increased strength, Adm Gilday also tried to explain why the US Navy planned to scrap nine warships, some less than three years old.
“I refuse to put an additional dollar against a system that would not be able to track a high-end submarine in today’s environment,” Gilday told the committee. He said the main reason for the early retirement was that the anti-submarine warfare system on the ships “did not work out technically.” The decommissioning of the ships would save the Navy approximately $391 million, according to the service’s proposed FY23 budget. But that recoups only a fraction of the cost of the nine littoral combat ships, which totaled about $3.2 billion.
The arcs of Chinese and US naval strengths are heading in the wrong directions. As Conrad Crane writes about here, America’s ability to fight a major conflict, let alone two at the same time, for the first time in a long time can be questioned. Part of Russia’s strategic mistake in going into Ukraine is it revealed how weak Russia’s military really is. How long before someone decides to test how strong the US is these days?
May 17th, 2022 at 10:31 am
Economy headed for depression and rampant inflation at home. Rival nations engaging in imperial activities abroad. What the US needs is another world war so we can destroy the military and industrial capabilities of Europe, Russia and China, leaving us as the world’s sole military and economic superpower again.
Fortunately, Lesko Brandon is right on top of things and we have a ready-made entry ticket, in Ukraine. The future has never looked brighter.
May 17th, 2022 at 10:58 am
On the plus side, if things devolve into a shooting war with China AND we manage to survive it, the priorities for our military and military procurement should be straightened out for about 25 and 10 respectively.
May 17th, 2022 at 11:27 am
Bunch of old, White men whipping up fear. We need to hear from women commanders.
What’s Admiral Levine’s assessment?
May 17th, 2022 at 11:44 am
“If one doesn’t even know what one is thinking, neither can one’s enemy.” ~ Joe Tzu, The Art of War
May 17th, 2022 at 12:08 pm
Adm Gilday also tried to explain why the US Navy planned to scrap nine warships, some less than three years old.
Gilday was misdirecting in his explanation. It is not the “desire” to save money, but inability to staff these ships. Who needs warriors when all you need is to press a few buttons in a bunker somewhere under a mountain in the Rockies.
Also, China buying up countries and taking over ports through the belt and road initiative makes a lot more sense now, no?
May 17th, 2022 at 12:40 pm
^ If China doesn’t open up, the economy dies. If the lockdown ends, it means death to the paramount leader Mr Xi’s reputation. Stuck between a rock and a hard place.
May 17th, 2022 at 2:14 pm
I have a strong isolationist streak, but I know (I hope) what the world will look like w/o Uncle Same acting as the world’s policeman.
It will look like the world in June of 1914. It will be a poorer world, overall.
However, no one can deny that globalism lacks resiliency. One very minor pandemic, one crazy guy in the Kremlin, and you have spiraling inflation, interminable supply chain issues, and food riots.
May 17th, 2022 at 2:33 pm
JPA’s comment about somebody down in the Rockies (the pastor who did my wedding’s first job out of USAFA was actually in one of those mountains) reminds me of how the Air Force pretty much campaigned during the 1960s to eliminate the Army, Navy, and Marines because they could control everything with their ICBMs and long range bombers. Thankfully wiser heads prevailed.
Looks like we have a LOT of rebuilding to do in our armed forces, and I wonder if the staffing issues that JPA mentions are huge. I remember when the Fitzgerald hit a cargo ship, and I thought “huh, there are several systems that should have figured this out–radar, sonar, deck watches–why didn’t any of them work?” Answer; they weren’t adequately staffed or trained.
May 17th, 2022 at 3:17 pm
One very minor pandemic, one crazy guy in the Kremlin, and you have spiraling inflation, interminable supply chain issues, and food riots.
Them are all excuses, MP, to implement the script. Who wrote it and who is editing it?
May 17th, 2022 at 3:50 pm
JPA, the elites always think that they have control. They imagine that they have the situation in hand. After all, they are the best and brightest, aren’t they?
Yet they lacked the imagination to foresee any of the great revolutions of the past 200 years.
Look at Minneapolis “Office of Resiliency.” Caught completely flat footed by a pandemic and race riots, but By God they have a plan for the global warming that will happen in thirty years!
May 17th, 2022 at 9:03 pm
Meanwhile, bad news for the Delenda crew. Someone noticed.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10827315/Retired-four-star-general-shares-video-game-footage-claims-Russian-war.html
May 18th, 2022 at 8:47 am
One spoofed point of reference impugns a whole movement, Dullee? Really? You gonna apply that to all the BS Russia’s been spewing? Didn’t think so.
Bad news for the “War Crimes” team. First soldier has plead guilty to war crimes, and the ICC is getting ready for the biggest set of prosecutions ever. Glad to see you’re still wearing that jersey, Swiftee.