This year will see the 80th anniversary of the Guadalcanal campaign. Guadalcanal was at the end of a chain of Japanese bases radiating from their main bases at Rabaul and Truk. Japan pushed these bases out with the aim of interdicting supply routes between the US and their ANZAC allies. After relieving the threat to Port Moresby on New Guinea with the Battle of the Coral Sea, the US saw an opportunity to check Japan’s advance towards the New Hebrides. Guadalcanal’s strategic location was ideal for the airfield Japan had under construction. The Marines invaded in August 1942 and after a tough six month battle, the US had secured a base that set the stage for Operation Cartwheel, a major campaign aimed at neutralizing Rabaul.

Gudalcanal’s location in relation to sea lanes between the US and Australia is no less strategic today, which is why plenty of alarm bells are sounding after the government of the Solomon Islands announced a security agreement with China last week.

Solomon Islands Ministers of Foreign Affairs and External Trade Hon Jeremiah Manele and Minister of Police and National Security and Correctional Services, the Hon Anthony Veke jointly announced that officials of Solomon Islands and the Peoples Republic of China have initialed elements of a bilateral Security Cooperation Framework between the two countries today.

The draft Framework Agreement will be cleaned up and await signatures of the two countries Foreign Ministers.

Solomon Islands reiterate that the Framework of Cooperation is to respond to Solomon Islands soft and hard domestic threats. Solomon Islands continue to roll out the implementation of its National Security Strategy and uphold its Foreign Policy of “Friends to all and enemies to none.”

The government in Honiara says they have no intention of allowing China to put a naval base in the Solomons.

Seeking to counter international fears over its new security alliance with China, the Solomon Islands said Friday it won’t allow China to build a military base there.

But that insistence will do little to ease concerns about the pact from the nation’s traditional partners that include New Zealand, Australia and the United States.

In a statement Friday, the Solomon Islands government said that “contrary to the misinformation promoted by anti-government commentators” the agreement did not invite China to establish a military base.

“Government is conscious of the security ramification of hosting a military base, and it will not be careless to allow such initiative to take place under its watch,” the statement said.

(Honiara, which is on Guadalcanal, today sits along the Matanikau River, site of some important battles in the Guadalcanal campaign. And just to the east of it, Honiara International Airport is the descendant of Henderson Field, the airfield that was the initial objective of the invasion.)

It’s uncertain though what value the Solomons would have for China without a military base, and if China did eventually put a military base there, it would be a very aggressive move, one that is not typical for China.

A couple weeks ago the Naval News had this story about the expansion of the Chinese navy.

China has an ambition to expand and modernize its navy on a scale not seen in any other country. Analysis of satellite imagery suggests that one of China’s most important shipyards is being increased in size.

Jiangnan shipyard on the Yangtze River in Shanghai is important for the Chinese Navy (PLAN). It builds aircraft carriers, cruisers, destroyers and submarines. The correspondingly large shipyard occupies over 7.3 square kilometers (2.8 square miles). Now a new yard next door, associated with the Hudong-Zhonghua yard will expand the shipbuilding area by around 50%.

Work has already started. Analysis of satellite imagery confirms construction visually matching the expected expansion.

This comparison from globalfirepower.com shows that China’s navy is at 777 ships compared to 484 for the US. The implications of an increasingly aggressive China in the Pacific, backed by a navy that can be a match for the US Navy are quite serious. The parallels of an East Asian power expanding into the Pacific are not lost on anyone.

This excellent article in The Diplomat summarizes what’s behind this security agreement, and how the US has been slow to respond.

Opinion has been sharply divided about whether China will use the security deal to build a military base in the Solomon Islands. Sogavare, and those unperturbed by the deal, insist China will not build a military base to project its power into the southwest Pacific. Solomon Islands scholar Tarcisius Kabutaulaka argues that “China is unlikely to build a naval base in Solomon Islands” because “foreign military outposts are not how Beijing operates.” Kabutaulaka further argues that unlike the United States, which operates 750 bases in 80 countries, China operates “only one overseas base in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa.”

That may be the case, for now, but China’s past overtures to Vanuatu in 2018, and Papua New Guinea in 2020, and activities at the Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka, Gwadar Port in Pakistan, and the Ream Naval Base in Cambodia, and now the Solomon Islands, when connected together tell another story. It is unlikely that such a provocative move as building a Chinese military base would happen in the short-term, but China continues to play a long and complex strategic game. Sogavare has continued to try to quell concerns by saying “Australia remains our partner of choice, and we will not do anything to undermine Australia’s national security,” though such words are cold comfort given his recent actions.

While a military base might be a longer-term scenario, the revelation of the Solomon Islands-China deal has had already had an impact on U.S. and allied approaches to the Pacific (like the recent agreements between Australia and New Zealand with Fiji). A case in point was the U.S. Senate Hearings on the Compact of Free Association Negotiations held March 29. That hearing gathered evidence from the Departments of State, Defense, and Interior about the mired state of U.S. government negotiations with the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia and the Republic of Palau.

There had been great frustration that these negotiations have not progressed significantly since December 2020 (even though the current compacts expire starting in 2023), until March 22 when Ambassador Joseph Jun was appointed Special Presidential Envoy for Compact Negotiations. Despite this key development, which should now allow these critical negotiations to progress, the Solomon Islands-China deal loomed over proceedings. Senators sought answers about why there had been such seeming dysfunction and lack of action on the COFA renewals when China was surging ahead and making critical inroads into the region, as the Solomon Islands deal makes clear.

Eighty years ago the US made a stand at Guadalcanal thanks to heroes such as the ones named in the title of the post. With today’s military more concerned about transgender issues, I fear that the US is no longer capable of producing such heroes. And if not, what or who do we fall back on? Joe “Big Guy” Biden? A Pacific Ocean under the thrall of the Chinese would mean a very different world than what we live in now.

This entry was posted by by Jeff Kouba on Thursday, April 7th, 2022 at 11:00 am and is filed under World. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.