The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
By Jeff Kouba
Beginning Wednesday, China is playing host to a meeting in Tunxi ostensibly on Afghanistan and attendees include various neighbors of Afghanistan. Of greater interest are the side meetings taking place there.
China will host a series of meetings about Afghanistan on Wednesday, featuring representatives of Russia, the US, the Taliban, and South and Central Asian countries, as it ramps up diplomatic engagement with its troubled neighbour.
The meetings in Tunxi, in the eastern Chinese province of Anhui, will be a rare instance of officials from Moscow and Washington meeting since Russia invaded Ukraine last month.
The Chinese foreign ministry said on Tuesday that Yue Xiaoyong, China’s special envoy to Afghanistan, would host counterparts from the United States, Russia and Pakistan for the latest “troika plus” talks.
The four-way meeting will be held on the sidelines of a conference of ministers from Afghanistan’s neighbours, at which Foreign Minister Wang Yi will host ministers and officials from Iran, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, the Chinese ministry said.
Out of one of those side meetings came this little item.
Foreign Ministers of Russia and Iran Sergei Lavrov and Hossein Amir Abdollahian at a meeting in China confirmed the desire of both countries to strengthen cooperation in all areas, despite the sanctions imposed by Western countries against Moscow and Tehran, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement following the meeting.
Russia talking with Iran, in China. What could go wrong? Even though Lavrov has a shooting war on his hands, and has a hostile West to deal with, he still found time to fly to eastern China. A sign, I think, of the value Lavrov saw in making the trip.
What form this joint sanction-busting cooperation might take is unclear, but there are other interesting things to keep an eye on here. China made this comment at the conference (bold is mine)…
Concerning Afghanistan; both Russia and China held meetings with the Taliban in Kabul last week, Wang Yi flying in to meet the Acting Foreign Minister and a Russian delegation holding similar, separate discussions. Russia’s concerns are primarily security-focused, while China’s are both security and infrastructure-focused – Wang stated after his Taliban meeting that China would be prepared to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan. Several important regional initiatives transits Afghanistan, including the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline, which is partially online. Getting energy into Pakistan is key for its industrial development. Russia is also involved in this by agreeing to build the ‘PID Initiative‘ a Russian-built pipeline that also supports CPEC.
China has initiated a staggering array of projects to secure its resource and energy needs. One aspect of this is the multi-trillion-dollar-plus (Biden Administration: Hold my beer!) Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This new “Silk Road” involves a wide range of infrastructure projects to facilitate trade and the shipment of resources to and from China.
One part of this is the aforementioned China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The CPEC consists of a series of transport routes through Pakistan between Karachi as well as China’s massive port project in Gwadar to the border with China in northeast Pakistan. Among other things, this land route down to Gwadar would let China bypass shipping cargo past a potentially hostile India.
The fact that China is interested in pushing these infrastructure projects into Afghanistan is eye-opening. Security and cost have always been the main concerns about projects in Afghanistan. Who wants to invest millions there if the crazies in Afghanistan will blow up your project? The TAPI pipeline has been in the works for awhile now, and China has also expressed interest in adding it to the CPEC network.
I doubt China cares a whit about the Afghan people, but it cares deeply about how Afghanistan might be exploited for its needs, and this conference is just a part of dealing with the security and financial concerns about doing business in Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, the US representative to this conference, Thomas West, the U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan, tweeted this week about an Afghan girls robotics team. Russia, Iran and China don’t give two flying figs about an Afghan girls robotics team. They are serious about their geopolitics.
With the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan has little choice but to align with China, and the US has much less leverage there as the Taliban now call the shots. Pakistan is a basket case, and has pronounced energy needs. It needs China’s investments, and in the process Pakistan is becoming mighty beholden to China.
More to come in this space as these projects unfold, but China’s pursuit of natural resources explains a great deal of why China does what it does. For instance, here’s something that might get lost in the noise.
Another aspect of the BRI is the China–Central Asia–West Asia Corridor, a series of projects connecting China with Central Asia. The CPEC enters China from Pakistan in Xinjiang Province. The Central Asia Corridor also enters/exits China in Xinjiang.
Xinjiang is home to the Uighurs. It’s not the only reason for its mistreatment but China views the Uighurs has a potential threat to these massive economic projects, projects that China views as vital to its future. Its persecution of the Uighurs makes more sense from China’s perspective when viewed through the lens of China’s thirst for natural resources.
March 31st, 2022 at 11:14 am
Holy hannah. Great post, Jeff.
March 31st, 2022 at 11:17 am
This is the point I was making yesterday. While everyone is fixated on changing geographical boundaries that affect no one, the Russians are busily changing economic conditions that will affect everyone.
2nd and 3rd order consequences of knee jerk decisions of feckless Western leaders.
March 31st, 2022 at 11:21 am
Ok, I’ll repost the latest headline here as well…
Putin threatens to turn off Europe’s gas supplies TOMORROW if countries refuse to pay in roubles
End of the petrodollar? ( shudder )
March 31st, 2022 at 11:23 am
China has given up on utilitarianism. I think this is the biggest takaway for me during Covid. China used to be a very pragmatic nation, which always believed in sacrifices for the greater good — the biggest benefit to the largest number of people. Today it looks like China is idealist again — like in the Mao days. Pursuing policy because of ideology.
Add also that as China aligns with Russia, Western companies will begin to decouple from China and pull out critical manufacturing, taking it to other regions or home. That will result in job losses. Pressures will increase on Western companies not to support Chinese manufacturers as we know clearly where Xi is headed. I don’t think that will be good for Xi. Toss in a few bad harvests and China has troubles on the streets.
March 31st, 2022 at 11:28 am
C’mon Jeff! You dare question the greatest Diplomat™ evah in charge of the adults in the white house™? Have you not noticed that mean tweets had been eliminated? The biggest achievement since discovery of fire? The rest is just minutia.
March 31st, 2022 at 11:44 am
The Chinese leadership is too realistic and cynical to have real allies in the world. All the partnerships they have are transactional or inherited historically due to convenience. Their relationship with the Russians is just the same. If the overall calculations shift, that relationship will change.
The counter argument is that under Xi the inner circle of key advisors has become small and static. In the past there was change-over at the top and this brought in fresh ideas and perspectives. No longer under Xi. In this respect they are quite like Putin’s narrow clique, and perhaps also prone to self-referential beliefs and disastrous decision making.
March 31st, 2022 at 11:54 am
How can Putin and Xi expect to make headway while rAT remains idle in his lux lakeside estate?
I expect the read the appearance of a brilliant, but mysterious Canadian stock broker at the tri-lateral talks.
March 31st, 2022 at 12:15 pm
“German Economy Minister Robert Habeck on Wednesday told German broadcaster ZDF that Germans “will be poorer” as a result of the sanctions placed on Russia.”
Beetleschnitzle und dandelion kraut anyone?
March 31st, 2022 at 12:27 pm
So in two years time when Europe has almost weaned itself off Russian oil and gas and in five when it has accelerated its renewables to the point planned for 10 years from now, where is Putin going to sell his gas and oil? If the Chinese and Indians are the only buyers they won’t be paying market rates. He should have asked Bush junior about the unexpected outcomes of starting wars. Putin kindly helping the West decarbonize and meet its emissions targets way ahead of schedule….
March 31st, 2022 at 12:34 pm
You would think that by now Emery would have learned his lesson about predicting what will happen.
Who foresaw Biden’s disastrous bug out from Afghanistan?
Not Emery!
Who foresaw Putin’s invasion of Ukraine?
Not Emery!
Yet he goes on irregardless, blithely predicting the course of future history when he has failed so often at it before.
Go get ’em, tiger!
March 31st, 2022 at 12:45 pm
Emery,
You are woefully ignorant and naive if you really believe your environazi heroes will get their way. Loyal party apparatchik that you are, I’m sure that you have converted your house to full solar, bought yourself a Chevy Volt and are eating lentils and bugs. You probably want to look around your mansion to see if you can identify all of the crap within it, including the device you use to post your drivel, are made from petroleum products.
March 31st, 2022 at 1:28 pm
We’d be remiss to forget that rAT is the genius that foresaw the market dive back in 2019, liquidated his PosiTIon, took his ProFITs just in the nick of time and then spent the winter relaxing in Michigan, training for the BirKiE.
He’s a force to be reckoned with and is no doubt mAKiNG moVeS to take advantage of the evolving situation.
March 31st, 2022 at 2:01 pm
Xi has bet on the wrong horse and both he and Putin have shown their true intentions too early.
It was already on shaky ground with trade with the West and now it’s special relationship with Russia will change our attitude and approach to China along with its supply chains which will change dramatically over the forthcoming years, slowly but surely.
The pandemic was bad enough but now China is a real threat on Foreign policy. It also has the mother of all property recessions coming it’s way. Chinese companies have already gone bust on several large London developments and this is the tip of the iceberg. Taiwan must be delighted.
March 31st, 2022 at 3:43 pm
Let me get this right; China is going to more or less re-create portions of the Silk Road through Afghanistan, helping Sunni Afghans and Pakistanis find out about the plight of their Sunni Uyghur neighbors along a road to be built that doesn’t exist yet in any coherent way.
They could learn the hard way that this is a really, really, really bad idea, if others catch my drift. Taking a look at the map, the Chinese and Russians may be very, very lucky that those mountains are danged near impassible, and hence the projects they envision nearly impossible.
March 31st, 2022 at 4:27 pm
China is moving aggressively throughout the Eastern hemisphere. They like to insinuate themselves into weak governments by offering aid, including security aid, to the local tinpot. Once in, they are impossible to get out.
The Aussies and Kiwi’s were once the benign back stop for security in the island nations of the SW Pacific (like the Solomons). China is moving in.
The Australians are adding ships to their navy, maybe too late to do good.
March 31st, 2022 at 4:56 pm
I wonder where China got the crazy notion of using slave labor to build a giant structure across impassable mountains?
Will we be able to see the new road from space?
March 31st, 2022 at 5:22 pm
once again, logic fails our friend bike. Road and Belt are metaphorical. China uses this concept to enslave Africa and South America – all without the physical need for a road or a belt.
March 31st, 2022 at 6:54 pm
Putin can count on a no limits partnership with China —just as the Rabbit can count on the warm embrace of the Boa Constrictor.
April 1st, 2022 at 9:11 am
You may claim no need for a road or rail line, JPA, but if you look at the map our host has provided, that is exactly what is noted, and if you want to bypass India for transport, that is precisely what is needed. So I’m standing by my “illogic”.
Looks like an extremely expensive and frankly dangerous way to save a few RMB, but there ya go.
April 1st, 2022 at 10:41 am
China has a large (and rapidly aging) population, a manufacturing-heavy economy, and is resource poor. China is quite logically trying to corral, by hook or by crook, the rights to extract the resources of other countries and transport them to China.
I have family in the SW Pacific and Australia. Australians are very worried about Chinese hegemony. It’s a double edged sword to them, Australia is small on people and large on resources, China is their best customer and potentially their worst enemy. Chinese influence, including military presence, is growing in the nations that surround Australia.
April 1st, 2022 at 10:50 am
The US and EU total reliance on China as a manufacturing center will prove in time to be as much of an Achilles heal as Germany’s reliance on Russian gas and precious metals. And the war in Ukraine shows how important it is to realize this and act on it ASAP. In the 00s, Putin was no enemy of the West, but he was already a strong man. Europeans thought they could rely on Russia for energy needs. They were wrong. For the same reason they should not rely on the CCP’s China.
April 1st, 2022 at 11:22 am
bike, Belt and Road remains a metaphor. In some cases, as you correctly pointed out at the map, there could, potentially, be made a physical connection. But to make an assertion that there MUST be a physical connection for Belt and Road is a logical fallacy.