Joe Doakes from Como Park emails:
I don’t think per-capita death rates is the correct measure.
Covid does not strike all age groups equally. Minnesota had zero Second
Graders die of Covid under a strict lock down, Wisconsin had zero Second
Graders die of Covid under no lock down. Does this tell us anything
about lock downs? No, because Second Graders don’t die of Covid. They
are not the at-risk pool. Old people are the at-risk pool.
Also, nobody retires from Florida to move to New York, it’s the other
way around. Comparing state death rates per capita fails to take into
account that a larger percentage of the population in retirement states
are old people, which gives those states a larger at-risk pool.
A fair comparison is the result of policies in
high-death-rate-per-at-risk-pool states versus
low-death-rate-per-at-risk-pool states. It takes a fair amount of math.
Minnesota has 5,600,000 people of whom 16% are over 65 .
Florida has 21,500,000 people of whom 21% are over 65. 
Deaths by Covid are broken into Age and Sex by State.  Yes, all the
numbers are phony, but they’re equally phony.
Doing the math:
Minnesota has 695 Covid deaths in Men aged 65 and up; 816 Covid deaths
in Women aged 65 and up; total 1,511 Covid deaths in the at-risk
population. 1511 -:- 5,600,000 = .0002698.
Florida has 4,177 Covid Deaths in Men aged 65 and up; 3,701 Covid deaths
in Women aged 65 and up; total 7,878 Covid deaths in the at-risk
population. 7,878 -:- 21,500,000 = .0003664
Florida is doing worse than Minnesota, which I did not expect. That
doesn’t mean our strict lock-down made any difference, since college
kids partying on the beach generally have little contact with Grandma in
the nursing home, but the statistics don’t help our case as much as I
thought they would.
Unless I made a mistake, which is totally possible. Check the math
Fatalities per capita may not be ideal – but it’s the closest thing to a measurement that is simultaneously common enough to be a mathematical lingua franca and compares apples to apples, as it were.