Blue Fragility: Numbers Game

Joe Doakes from Como Park emails:

Liberals keep haranguing us about Covid numbers, comparing New York to Florida, Minnesota to Wisconsin. They want us to believe open states fare worse than closed states. I don’t believe the numbers Liberals use are apt comparisons.

Covid kills old people. It’s reasonable that places with more old people would experience more Covid deaths. Raw number of deaths, and deaths-per-million-of-total-population, don’t take into account how many of the population are old enough to be at-risk (leaving aside the fact nobody believes the reported death numbers). You have to look at the at-risk populations to see how various states are doing.

There are 5,800,000 people in Wisconsin, 16.5% of them over-65, for a pool of 957,000 at-risk seniors, of which 906 have died of Covid.  That gives Wisconsin an at-risk death rate of 0.094%

There are 21,500,000 people in Florida, 21% of them over-65, for a pool of 4,515,000 at-risk seniors, of which 6,100 have died of Covid. That gives Florida an at-risk death rate of 0.135%.

There are 5,600,000 people in Minnesota, 16.3% of them over-65, for a pool of 912,800 at-risk seniors, of which 1,600 have died of Covid.  That gives Minnesota an at-risk death rate of 0.175%.

There are 19,500,000 people in New York, 17% of them over-65, for a pool of 3,315,000 at-risk seniors, of which 32,700 have died of Covid. That gives New York an at-risk death rate of 0.986%.

Minnesota’s results are twice as bad as Wisconsin’s (17 to 9).

New York’s results are SEVEN TIMES as bad as Florida’s (98 to 13).

Among the at-risk population, open states have decisively better results.

That’s a story that needs better telling.

Joe Doakes

That’s been the case since the beginning of this plague: “Blue State” pundits, pols and Karens have been predicting perdition for uppity square-staters with the fervor of Pentecostal ministers.

The comparison is less and less inapt every day.

23 thoughts on “Blue Fragility: Numbers Game

  1. Of the deaths in New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, most of them were in nursing homes, where the governors of those states sent sick people to infect other elderly people, against Medicare guidelines. If these governors had been Republicans, they would have already been indicted for murder.

    I also pointed out that an HMO apologized for adding over 600,000 members to the list of being positive for the virus. I’m willing to bet that those 600,000 have not been subtracted from the total number of “cases”.

  2. Excellent points, Joe.

    Expect the “journalists” to pick up the goal posts and rush them out into the parking lot, crying, “But, but, but, the death rate is no longer important, it is the INFECTION rate.”

    So how do we know the infection rate?

    Well, that is the ratio of positive results to the number of tests – but no, it isn’t. Only a carefully randomized study will give you that.

    Instead, it is mostly people who are either exposed to covid, have reason to suspect they have it or work in professions where covid exposure is the norm.

    So the positive rate is nothing more than the ratio of people who suspect they have been exposed to covid – being correct.

  3. Number of cases is a useless statistic because the mortality rate is low in the general population and by corollary, survival rate is high. If it is all about the rate of infection, I guess we are in perpetual lockdown because we have no chance of curing the common cold or the flu. Just what reprobates and wannabe dictators are clamoring for. Moving goal posts indeed.

  4. Fauci and other epidemiologists can only take a stab at a COVID forecast by how well US citizens currently follow the recommended pandemic protocols.

    The more people that don’t follow the recommendations, the longer the primary advance of the disease path, the more the prediction model will change. Too bad our own President is short sighted to his re-election chances rather than the well being of US citizens and COVID.

  5. But SHOULD the President follow the recommended pandemic protocols? We’ve had six months to learn about the Covid virus. Does the weight of accumulated evidence show the recommended pandemic protocols are the correct response to the Covid virus?

    No, it does not. The figures above show that Minnesota (strict lockdown, masks for everyone) has a WORSE result among the at-risk population than Florida (no lockdown, no masks). The weight of accumulated evidence shows the recommended pandemic protocols are exactly backwards for protecting the at-risk population. Following those protocols is needlessly killing people.

    Blaming the President for declining to follow the model that’s killing his citizens is not sensible, it’s deranged. Trump Derangement Syndrome.

  6. The fact that republican congressman Louis Gohmert claimed to have gotten the virus from wearing a mask says all you need to know about ‘learning’ on the conservative side.

  7. Emery, why are you ignoring the numbers? You haven’t refuted them so they must be correct. The mathematical proof is right before your eyes: Liberal nostrums are killing old people. But you continue to insist on them.

    Why do you hate old people, and want them to die?

  8. Why isn’t the White House open for public tours? Walk the talk and all that…..

  9. When the Wisconsin Supreme Court overruled Evers’ health commissioner about staying open, he predicted that “Republicans will have blood on their hands” as a result.

    Nope.

    Now he’s issued his own mask-mandate – but his urgency allowed him to wait until another liberal could be seated on the Court.

  10. From a tweet I came across

    I’ve been saying this for months. It’s almost like we convinced ourselves that prior to March we were living with 0% risk and now we can’t go back to our lives unless we reach some fantastical stage of no risk when that was never the case to begin with.

  11. Fauci and other epidemiologists can only take a stab at a COVID forecast by how well US citizens currently follow the recommended pandemic protocols.

    Not mentioned: Whether Fauci’s and other epidemiologists’ assumptions about transmission, incubation, etc. are correct in the first place.

    Four months ago, social-distancing was recommended and masks were not, in part because epidemiologists didn’t want to create an artificial shortage of N95 masks for health-care workers. People wore masks anyway, even here, in a state whose governor decided to not push a mandatory lock-down. The numbers continued to rise.

    Then the numbers surged, right after large gatherings of people in many cities had occurred. But with statistical slight-of-hand, test-and-tracers weren’t allowed to ask people if they’d attended protests, so we could claim that the protests had a negligible impact on infection rates, and media coverage showed protesters and rioters wearing masks. Whether that bore a resemblance to reality is a topic for another time.

    But what if masks, especially the widely-available non-N95 cloth masks, aren’t effective? Now the recommendation is to also wear a face shield or goggles. The jaded cynic in me thinks that’s because mask-wearing, social-distancing, and forcing millions into unemployment or less-than-ideal remote-working arrangements, for far longer than we were told we’d have to do it, have done little, and the operators of the dials are warming up their next pitch to an increasingly-skeptical public

    You maintain that the cases are rising because Americans aren’t doing what Fauci, et al are telling them to do. But models that forecasted millions of deaths by now have had to be constantly revised downward. So then, what conclusions do we draw? That the models were overly pessimistic? That US citizens are following guidelines set forth by the CDC? That maybe Dr. Fauci and other epidemiologists are wrong in their assumptions?

    Too bad our own President is short sighted to his re-election chances rather than the well being of US citizens and COVID.

    The flip side is that his political opponents and a majority of the MSM want this to hurt him in the election, actual facts be damned. Losing sight of the voter’s needs, other than what is required to lock in their votes, is something the Democrats have been doing since the party was founded.

  12. Jim Jordan exposed FAUXci, AGAIN, yesterday by asking him, very politely I might add, if it wasn’t time to call to limit the protesting. FAUXci danced around it, then Jordan nailed him for his hypocrisy.

    https://www.joshwho.net/fauci-exposed-jim-jordans-grilling-proves-its-all-political-video/

    And Emery, you hack, the White House if following FAUXci’s advice by canceling the tours of the White House, to avoid the spread of the cold virus. But then, you knew that. You were just imitating the symbol of your party of choice; a braying jackass.

  13. I present a mathematical proof, Emery responds with tu quoque.

    It’s like I’m talking to the wall, here.

  14. Emery’s job is to deflect attention away from the Murderers he aids and abets on a daily basis, if he appears to engage with other posters that is mere happenstance.

  15. Well incest Omar is running Facebook ads prior to the primary election Tuesday, I’m guessing that internal polls show her down or close to it otherwise she wouldn’t be wasting the money to do that

  16. JD providing mathematical results to leftists is a clear sign of racism because you know math is racist.

  17. I don’t know, PoD, I think JD is exhibiting signs of white privilege. The only solution – burn him at the stake a la Holy Grail.

  18. JD wrote: “I present a mathematical proof, Emery responds with tu quoque.”

    Clearly the WH should be utilizing your mathematical proofs to establish their policies — I have to question why that’s not the case…..

  19. “Most people with Covid just have the sniffles. We need to reopen schools ASAP.” ~ Donald Trump

    “Perhaps we should delay the election until after the pandemic.” ~ (also) Donald Trump

  20. @ BH429
    Re: Representative Jim Jordan

    I continue to be amazed at how little character and talent House Republicans display in every venue where they are asked to perform. It’s hard to believe that American taxpayers pay folks like Jordan, Gaetz, Buck, Gohmert and company $174,000 a year plus all their benefits and staff expenses to produce the kind of drivel they showed at that hearing.

  21. I’m glad you concede the numbers are correct and therefore, Covid is not a serious threat to the nation, it’s just a bad flu so our public policy response should be tailored accordingly.

    Let me know when you send your letter to the Governor demanding he lift the restrictions and open the schools.

  22. What do you do for work? Do you work in person or remote? Do you have kids in school? I’m trying to understand why you’re calling for a literal rebellion over a decision to “let local school districts figure it out.”

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