Early Handicapping
By Mitch Berg
Mark McKinnon at The Daily Beast indulges in the wonk’s favorite weekend pastime – putting together lists.
This one – the top ten GOP contenders.
He’s got Mitt at the top of the list, followed by Palin and Pawlenty. Not a bad start.
Moving down the list, though, you get the impression he’s trying to gin up some discussion (and apparently it worked, since I’m linking him…).
4. John Thune
If he would run, John Thune could be the Bob McDonnell of the 2012 GOP field.
In a field as deep with center-right conservatives, John Thune is impressive – but in a field where “center-right” includes Romney, Pawlenty, I see Thune – a freshman Senator, let’s not forget – being far down the crowd.
5. Mike Huckabee
Put a fork in him. While I agree with McKinnon – the clemency decision on Clemmons, who got a life-plus-life sentence for crimes committed when he wasn’t even of legal age; statistically, it wasnt’ a bad bet, although that’s no comfort for the families of the four cops he allegedly killed.
Much worse, in a just world? He’s no more fiscally conservative than George W. Bush was.
6. Joe Scarborough
Make it stop.
Next – evidence that McKinnon spends too much time among wonks:
7. Haley Barbour
Don’t laugh. Haley’s as wily a fox as anyone out there prowling the political countryside these days. He’s smart, strategic and has been around the rodeo a very long time. Sure he’s a caricature of the classic Southern politician: old, large, white, honey-lipped, and a former lobbyist to boot. But if voters are really tired of Obama, they’ll be looking for the mirror opposite of the man occupying the Oval Office. And that would clearly be Haley.
Barbour is a highly-qualified candidate; he’s an opposite of Obama in more than just the cosmetics that seem to enthrall McKinnon. He’s a blazingly capable executive; he’s accomplished things – his record as governor of Mississippi stands next to Romney’s and Pawlenty’s in their states.
But is he the opposite of Obama? Not in the way voters, especially voters who’ve genuinely soured on Obama or Republicans who want to right the ship, will care about.
8. Newt Gingrich
It will never happen. Please stop talking about it.
9. Mitch Daniels
Daniels has been an extraordinarily successful and effective governor in Indiana, a state that has been recently more blue than red. A no-nonsense, tell-it-like-is conservative, Daniels cruised to re-election by 18 points last year when Obama was winning the state.
I’d not thought about Daniels much – and I think his name recognition is, if anything, lower than Pawlenty’s (and Governor Pawlenty’s been working hard on raising his, in a way Daniels has not, at least at this point in the campaign, for what that’s worth, which isn’t much).
But here, I think McKinnon’s onto something:
10. Rick Perry
The only real question about Texas Governor Rick Perry is why he hasn’t been on any lists until now. He’s already the longest-serving governor in Texas history and may be headed for his third term next fall. Veteran Texas political observer Paul Burka makes a compelling case for why he should be considered:
1. Unlike Huckabee, Romney, and Palin, he is still in office.
2. He is the longest-serving governor in Texas history.
3. He is governor of the biggest red state that sends the most delegates to the Republican convention.
4. He has the best conservative record of any contender.
5. He has assiduously courted key figures in the Republican establishment.
6. The Murdoch news empire loves him. He is the beneficiary of puff pieces in The Wall Street Journal and softball questions on Fox News.
7. He has an extensive fundraising apparatus in Texas that is capable of raking in enough cash to make the race, and he is now in charge of finance for the Republican Governors Association, giving him access to the GOP’s big national donors.
8. He has not one but two strong messages. The first: Washington is corrupt to the core and out of touch with Main Street. The second: the Texas economic miracle.
9. He was quick to understand the significance of the tea party movement and attended many of the early gatherings.
10. With rare exceptions (such as the HPV vaccine controversy), he almost never deviates from the conservative line.
We can go on from there: he’s got huge cred among the Tea-party (aka “Real American”) crowd, and he’s got two-plus successful terms as governor of a huge state. He’s a “Tenther”, who exudes just the right tinge of “don’t tread on me” that a big chunk of this country wants (and gets from Sarah Palin), combined providing an undeniable conservative alternative that, with a little work, can convince the center to move right (rather than vice versa – which is what people like Huckabee and Scarborough are all about).
Perry’s moved onto my personal long list over this past month or two.
Beyond that?
Watch List:
• Ron Paul: Where are you? The environment is ripe for a libertarian like Paul to stir the tea party pot in 2012.
When you can have a Rick Perry – who brings most of the “libertarian”, and none of the “loose cannon”, why even mess with Paul?
• Jeb Bush: The first son of George H.W. Bush was supposed to be the 43rd President. He is widely respected by conservatives and it’s unlikely, but not impossible, that he could be the 45th, or 46th. And there’s always his telegenic Hispanic son, George P., who could keep the job in the family as 47.
Let’s give this generation a rest, and maybe give P at shot at it someday.
December 18th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
Please, please, no Jeb Bush!!!! No more legacy Presidents. Maybe he’d be useful in a cabinet position, or as a ambassador, beyond that NO.
A Perry candidacy sounds very appealing.
December 18th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
Perry, Bush? Good luck with that. It’ll be another generation before a candidate with the middle initial W. can even consider running, much less a Texas governor or, God forbid, another Bush.
Huck will be a casualty of friendly fire long before any Democrats get to shake his tree.
Santorum, DeMint? You only wish. The current Republican Party is crazy enough to give almost anyone the nomination, provided he/she’s Jesus-crazy enough. But that pair of kooks would make Goldwater ’64 look like a vote-getter.
Mitt’s also a non-starter. If he were a stock, Angryclown would go very short. And Angryclown agrees on Scarborough. Please.
It’s hard to tell who the Republican primaries will cough up, of course. But Angryclown will put his early money on the hot-looking airhead from the frozen north.
December 18th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
Mitch here are some problems I have with your watch list…
• Rick Santorum: The former conservative senator from Pennsylvania has strong appeal among Christian conservatives. He is articulate, aggressive and ambitious. If Huckabee fades, and Palin doesn’t run—and maybe even if they don’t—look for Santorum to be camped out in Iowa.
Never, EVER going to happen because of our own local Dan Savage from Savage Love on (Sh)city pages. Don’t believe me? Google Santorum and see what you get, here’s a hint, its REALLY NSFW.
• Mike Pence: Indiana Congressman Pence has been piling up frequent-flier miles raising money for Republican candidates. Popular with his colleagues, Pence was elected by his House colleagues as Republican Conference chairman, the third highest-ranking job in the Republican leadership. In his last election, he unopposed and was elected unanimously.
Maybe, needs more name recognition, all I know is that Paulsen (my rep) really seems to like him.
• Ron Paul: Where are you? The environment is ripe for a libertarian like Paul to stir the tea party pot in 2012.
NO, his time has passed. I’d rather see Alex Jones run…
• Eric Cantor: The House Minority Whip is the hottest GOP talent on the hill. He has become the voice of the loyal opposition, travels frequently for party fundraisers, and created the National Council for a New America to promote Republican ideas.
Maybe, his profile is rising.
• Jeb Bush: The first son of George H.W. Bush was supposed to be the 43rd President. He is widely respected by conservatives and it’s unlikely, but not impossible, that he could be the 45th, or 46th. And there’s always his telegenic Hispanic son, George P., who could keep the job in the family as 47.
Me and my Dad have discussed this at length, yes he was supposed to be 43 but W came in and screwed that up. Were not going to elect 3 people from the same family to the presidency, stop talking about this. ITS NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN PERIOD END OF DISCUSSION!
• Jim DeMint: They don’t come much more conservative than South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint, who has called for gay teachers to be banned from the classroom and says he “cringes” at the thought of a gay or lesbian president. He’s a Tea Party favorite and jumping into contested primaries around the country backing anti-establishment conservatives. If Palin/Huckabee/Santorum don’t get traction, DeMint could put on his running shoes.
Not likely, I’d rather have him in the Senate anyway.
December 18th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
I like Perry, although with the way things are going he is probably going to be President… of the Republic of Texas…
December 18th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
Ha, ha, Rick Perry. I guess secessionism scores big with the thumbsucking, er, I mean “Tenther” (haw!) set. Good luck with that; the circus is thataway.
…among the Tea-party (aka “Real Smarter Than Tim-In-Saint-Paul set of Americans”, which may be the textbook definition of “damnation by faint praise” or “the lowest you can set a bar without resorting to excavation”, but so it goes) crowd.
Fixed that for ya.
December 18th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
Barbour’s been my favorite for years.
December 18th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
When I read “Real Screeching Shit-for-Brains Americans”, the first thing I think is “Tim in StP”. It is the impression he creates, at least when posting here.
December 18th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
Ha, ha, Rick Perry. I guess secessionism scores big with the thumbsucking, er, I mean “Tenther” (haw!) set.
Riiiiight. Because among the set of poo-flinging monkeys that are your political mentors, “Secession” means “they must love slavery”.
Keep thinking that. Lao Tzu had some fascinating things to say about people who underestimate their opponents, and even worse things to say about people who believe their own press in re those underestimations…
…oh, hahaha, silly me. Assuming TiSP’s actually heard of Lao Tzu, much less read him.
My bad.
among the Tea-party (aka “Real Smarter Than Tim-In-Saint-Paul set of Americans”, which may be the textbook definition of “damnation by faint praise” or “the lowest you can set a bar without resorting to excavation”, but so it goes) crowd.
Fixed that for ya.
Yes. You certainly did. For the record. It may be the
mostfirst honest, cogent thing you’ve ever written.You might be learning.
(And I “might” land a date with Scarlett Johannson over the weekend, along those lines. But ’tis the season for hope, innit?)
December 18th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
If not a date with Scarlett maybe one with Elin. Rumor has it she’s available and about to come into a ton of money.
December 18th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
Now that we’ve been reminded why senators aren’t a good choice for president, I’d expect a governor to be the Republican candidate. T-Paw will have a decent argument to make. Don’t know much about Daniels. Barbour has a genuine record of accomplishment but he kinda reminds me of the guy who played the mayor on “Carter Country” and I don’t think that sort of persona is gonna play well. Palin? I don’t think so. Jindal? Maybe, but I’m guessing he’ll wait for a while.
I think there are several guys in the House who have a chance down the line, especially Cantor and Paul Ryan.
December 18th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
I’ll make my usual prediction this far ahead: the eventual Republican nominee is not on anyone’s radar yet, let alone on a list like this. I don’t know who it will be, but that’s how it most often seems to turn out.
That said I would probably not be able to vote for Huckajesus (old inside joke – not intended to offend anyone but the Huckster himself). And I definitely couldn’t vote for anyone named Bush. It’s kind of a shame because Jeb would probably be a lot better than his brother ever was. But if he’s upset with it he needs to take it up with said brother. I abhor presidential dynasties.
Palin killed her potential presidential credibility to me when she resigned before completing a single term as governor. We’re seeing already how well inexperienced novices handle the presidency, and it’s not a pretty picture.
December 18th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
If not a date with Scarlett maybe one with Elin. Rumor has it she’s available and about to come into a ton of money.
I’d be interested – in a year or so. People need to be single for a solid quarter of the length of the marriage (as a general rule) before they’re a decent long-term risk. And that clock starts ticking when the paperwork is signed. Why yes, I speak from experience 🙂
And of course, I’m discussing this as if it were a plausible scenario.
“That a man’s reach exceed his grasp, or what’s Heaven for?”
— Samuel Johnson
December 18th, 2009 at 5:13 pm
“Crazy”, “kooks”, “airhead”. Bozo continues his name-calling in place of actual debate.
December 18th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
Ben, Dan Savage is out of Seattle. That’s not local.
December 18th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
What about Ryan from WI? Jindahl? I also don’t see Guiliani. Rudy, Mitt, Sarah and the Huckster are currently the top 4 candidates.
They all have problems and so do the second tier candidates.
Mitt and Rudy have both flopped on every issue needed to win over the base.
Sarah has been branded by the MSM as crazy.
Huckster has had his Willie Horton moment.
Perry Secedes.
Govenor Green Pawlenty.
There is a long time between now and Nov. 2012. Just about anything can happen.
December 18th, 2009 at 9:46 pm
“I see Thune – a freshman Senator, let’s not forget…”
Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t that describe teh One?
December 18th, 2009 at 10:24 pm
Actually he’s a freshman president, mnbutthead.
December 18th, 2009 at 10:25 pm
Rudy! Hah!
That’s funny.
December 19th, 2009 at 9:39 am
I stand corrected. Didn’t that describe teh One?