11 thoughts on “Tag It And Bag It”

1. So their internal polling suggests Radinovich is DOA. If I had to bet the next big move would be the NRCC pulls out of CD-3, Paulsen is a dead man walking, he took too much special interest money and Dean Phillips is running a hell of a campaign.

2. If you had told me when I first started doing this blog that I’d ever be writing a post like this, I’d have had a brisk laugh.

   And an adult beverage.

3. Keep in mind MN-7 will flip as well whenever that dinosauer Peterson retires, hes the only reason the DFL still controls that seat.

4. the NYT poll must be way off, Id say Im surprised but apparently the NYT polling is as shady as their “journalism”

   https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2018/10/11/poll-shows-dead-heat-in-minnesotas-8th-district-matchup/

5. POD,

   That “dead heat” poll is older; the polling shows a yuge swing in the likely voter model, and those voters are going for Pete.

6. I found the most recent one, another NYT had Pete +15, race is over and by the DCCC actions they know it.

7. fivethirtyeight predicts only a 1 in 5 chance that the Democrat wins
   https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/minnesota/8/

8. Paulsen is a dead man walking, he took too much special interest money and Dean Phillips is running a hell of a campaign.
   
   I don’t know much about this district (although I do know a number of people who live in it), but I don’t understand the “too much special interest money”? I’ve never heard of anyone not voting for someone for that; it’s common practice. Unless I don’t understand – and I don’t.

   The “running a hell of a campaign” perspective seems specious. I find the ads against Phillips to be devastating; more so so than the one’s against Paulsen. Phillip’s own ads are quite good and, to be honest, I can’t recall having seen much of any ads by/for Paulsen himself.

   Personally, unless Paulsen really truly believes it/himself, I think that trying to distance himself from Trump and the Trump-wing of the party was dumb. He became an uninteresting flavor that would be overwhelmed by a good Democrat opponent and of little interest to support as a “new” Republican:
   I wouldn’t have much of a reason to vote *for* Paulsen, although I could imagine voting against Phillips.

   … hmm, I seem to have come to the same conclusion. Paulsen *is* a dead man walking.

9. If Paulsen keeps running the ads about Phillips and the health benefits the company he ran cut off from nurses, I don’t think Phillips wins. He just another trust fund limousine liberal and only the dumbest, most hardcore Dems will vote for him. I’ve actually spoken to a couple of nurses that I know and they confirm that their fellow socialist colleagues, won’t be voting for him. Further, he touts that he’ll be an “independent voice”, but he’ll be under Schumer’s boot with a month of taking office. Of course, running as a Democrat, everyone knows that he’s just deflecting. He’ll willingly vote the party line.

10. One of the issues if you’re the party on the wrong end of a wave election is that you generally have a lot of beachfront property to seawall and no idea how high the water is going to get. It’s very easy to assume certain districts are safe and don’t require any attention and thus neglect them in your triage calculations, and only realize after the fact that the danger was greater than you thought.

11. JDM, the DFL will get the CD3 seat this year and a Trump Republican will probably win it back in 2020 most likely.

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