Proportion

Joe Doakes from Como Park emails:

The Dow dropped the most points ever!  Trump should stay away!
Rubbish. The Dow dropped 666 points to close at 25,520.   An article from Obama’s time, 2015, shows the 10 worst drops in history.  His was number 10.
The analysts are using points instead of percentages which makes it sound scary but is it really?  If the Dow was at 10,000 points and dropped 1,000, that’s a 10% drop but if it’s at 20,000 points and drops 1,000, that’s a 5% drop, only half as bad.  Trump’s drop of 666 on 26,000 is 2.5%, not the worst in history, doesn’t even make in the top 10.   It’s a blip.
Why do you suppose an English major can figure that out, but all the sophisticated market analysts in the media cannot?
Joe Doakes

Make no mistake – they can figure it out.

But the Demorat messaging plan is “Say whatever we need to; our audience is either in on the line, or isn’t smart enough to bother”.

14 thoughts on “Proportion

  1. I would assume lower expected tax receipts mean lower budgeted expenses, especially if there is a significant budget deficit and the economy is strong without any recession in the horizon. It seems the US found a new way, lower taxes and higher expenses, very convenient, why people didn’t think about it in the past? I’m not sure if republicans don’t understand the implication of all this or they don’t care, I suspect the latter. They should already have someone in mind to make a scapegoat.

    Also, we need to borrow more in order to stimulate the inflation we need to make it easier to repay our enormous debts.

  2. This just in! Tax receipts exceed expectations in January! Anybody with a quarter of a brain can bing it. But not Shvonder-eTASS. What a self-fisking, ignorant, arrogant fool. Nobody is buying your lies here, cupcake. Keep trolling, tool of the proletariat.

  3. emery,
    you shouldn’t post when you’re drunk, and you shouldn’t be drunk at 7:30 in the morning!

  4. I’ll let you guys deal with Emery’s comments that are always rich in assumptions and usually wrong.

    I want to mention that I think that it’s normally not wise for politicians to take any credit for upward movement of “the market”. The fact is, markets go up and down for all sorts of reasons that have nothing to do with how well loved the President is or how thoughtful and well-intentioned his policies are. Even the state of the economy often bears only a loose linkage to activities of the market.

    I do, however, give Trump a single mulligan in this regard because of the widespread wailing and gnashing teeth when he was elected (especially from that phony Krugman) about what an awful effect a Trump administration would have on the market (“the stock market will “never” recover from Donald Trump’s presidential victory”)… hmm, almost Emery-esque.

  5. Tax cuts that are not paid for means more borrowing by Fed government putting pressure on interest rates and more competition for stocks. Not too complicated an equation. Growth never seemed to cover it in the past. It should have been offset by either less spending (not going to happen) or other tax increases.

    It would appear Trump economists graduated from Trump University. What could possibly go wrong?

  6. Worth noting, Emery, is that tax receipts exceed the targets needed to justify the tax cuts already. Sounds like the economists didn’t go to your alma mater at least!

  7. The Obama/Yellen bull market is over, welcome to the true start of the Trump era

    As inflation rises from Trump’s fiscal stimulus, this key risk for the stock market, means a correction is ahead for equities even if the economy improves.

    Interest rates and the Fed will be Trump’s new enemies.

  8. It’s nice that Liberals are concerned about deficit spending and about the national debt. Glad you finally woke up to it.

    The Senate passed a budget bill that increases defense spending and domestic spending in equal amounts. If we were truly concerned about deficit spending, we’d slash the domestic spending.

    I’m not holding my breath

  9. Trump had GDP coming in at 2.5% for 2017, his NFP numbers have averages a very mediocre 200K, national productivity is down in spite of the dollar taking a 20% haircut. But the cheering went on because markets were up. If markets roll over, where does that put Trump? He has nothing left except rounding up fathers and mothers in the country illegally.

  10. After misinformation in your first post, to which you have not owned up to, we are to pay attention to your further musings? Uninformed and steeped in ignorance and alternate reality? Keep trolling. “a” is a tl;dr for you.

  11. Will be ironic and politically costly for Trump and the GOP if as seems increasingly likely tax cuts and deregulation, first by overstimulating already strong economy, then by adding to already large national debt, lead to much higher rates, which cause market correction.

  12. In other words, “strong economy is bad”. I will not engage as to why, because Shvonder-eTASS have demonstrated time and time again they have zero (0) ability to comprehend and understand simple concepts. Concepts of reality, never mind economics. Dudes and zes that reside in Shvonder-eTASS head are surely in the red territory today. As per Mac’s observation, Shvonder-eTASS seems to have started drinking early today and have not stopped. Carry on cupcakes. We all need a good laugh at your expense.

  13. Increase the deficit when the economy is booming — I must have missed that class when studying economics.

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